Maryland Prediction Thread

I think it is time for a Maryland Predictions Thread.  Put your money where your mounth is...pick the winners and losers.  We know where to find you.

O'Malley or Ehrlich

Cardin or Steele

Duck or Bartlett

Any local races that you would like to predict?

Any upsets or surprises?

What will the Maryland after-election story be?

Will we know the results Tuesday night?

Will the MD general election be as troubled as the primary?

And for a peek at who we (maryland kossacks) are here is a poll:

•  Please give me soothing words

  I fear Maryland will be the 2006 Florida and Ohio, I'm so worried about voting mishaps, I'm worried Cardin in the GOP targetted victim to steal the senate seat from, I'm worried Ehrlich will intimidate voters and take away the victory from O'malley.
  Please tell me I'm wrong!!!!!

  by gladkov on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:00:05 AM PDT

  •  MD is a DEM sweep

    the Reason Curry Endorsed Steele is because he knew it was a safe way, as in , not actually going to affect the election; to signal his displeasure to the state party that he was frozen out of both the Senate and gubernatorial races.  Curry Feels he's owed, and is utterly blind to the fact that the Culture of Corruption in PG county started under Glendenning and expanded during Wayne's tenure, is a major reason that Erlich was able to capture the Governor's mansion (the other being the utterly inept run of KKT).  Wayne also is not an especially beloved figure in the local AA community whatever he might believe.  the "Sherrif Road Pastors" have 10x the poltical influence he does.

    Frat Boy Bob is a one-termer extraordinaire.  He is already planning his post-poltical career either as a lobbyist for, or on the board of, Wal-Mart.  His veto of the minimum wage and Mandatory employee Benefits bills (the latter involved a ceremony at which senior wal-mart execs were present and on the dias) were his ticket to lucrative post-election spot at their corporate bosom

    by Magorn on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:22:03 AM PDT

    •  tradesports predicts dem sweep

      a guy on mydd claims that they are accurate almost 90+% of the time.

      http://www.tradesports.com/...

      by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:01:59 AM PDT

      •  Have they updated?

        since the Guv polls tightened?

        My work will not let me access that site.  Gambling, you know.

        by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:16:01 AM PDT

        •  i have been watching and the odds

          have come down some in the past two days but they are still calling it for MOM at 60+%.  Rasmussen is still behind firewall.  I can only find it mentioned on pollster, redstate (via google) and here.  No one else is talking about polls tightening.

          by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:23:40 AM PDT

•  Biggest surprise

  John Kerry wins both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections.

  by DH from MD on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:00:51 AM PDT

•  I'll bite

  My father-in-law is a weathervane, but he usually does pick the winner.  He told me his votes last night.

  Ehrlich (damnit!)

  Cardin

  Ruppersberger (surprise, surprise)

  Keep the full local team (all Dems)

  I lived in Damascus for 7 years, so I've campaigned against Roscoe before.  It would surprise the heck out of me if Duck pulled it off - he's got a tall mountain to climb there.

  by Nina Katarina on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:00:58 AM PDT

  •  He did get endorsed by the Carroll County Times

    newspaper.  Add that to the Frederick Gazette endorsement.

    For an unknown, those endorsements do help to get his name out there.

    by Sharon in MD on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:07:08 AM PDT

    •  I was unaware of the CC Times endorsement

      that is a really big deal. The CC Times in not a liberal paper by any means.

      by andy k on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:00:36 AM PDT

  •  Can you sway him on O'Malley?

    We need this guy.

    by stephdray on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:48:55 AM PDT

•  dem wins

  Omalley by 3

  Cardin by 6

  Big story will be that Steele only did marginally better than Ehrlich among African Americans, and dramatically worse among Whites.

  by mdteacher on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:01:41 AM PDT

•  I will go first

  I predict:

  Cardin
  Ehrlich
  Duck (election upset)

  I think we will know Tuesday night but it may not be comfirmed until later in the week.

  Dem wave will sweep the country but because of the ongoing realingment of the MD Dem base we are not as effected by the wave.

  After-election story will continue to be the african american support for the dem party (or lack of support) including turn out results.

  Election will go more or less fine--urban areas will suffer more problems as they almost always do.

  by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:04:13 AM PDT

•  OK, I'll be serious

  O'Malley and Cardin pull out victories of ~5%.  Steny Hoyer will crush Steve Warner (G) in MD-5.  Jim Rosapepe will beat John Giannetti (again) for the District 21 Senate seat.  And this time, I think we'll know the results by Tuesday night, maybe early Wednesday morning.

  by DH from MD on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:05:18 AM PDT

•  Batlett? LOL.

  Love that Baltimore accent. ;)

  I'm afraid to guess, though I do think Duck has a shot at it.....events are going his way and the Repubs are focussing on other races.

  by Sharon in MD on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:09:15 AM PDT

  •  fixed. thanks. nt

    by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:29:25 AM PDT

•  Victories for

  O'Malley/Brown
  Cardin
  Duck

  Minor controversies at select polls, but nothing major. Ehrlich will act like the immature man that he is and protest, but it won't go anywhere.

  Gansler, Franchot, Leggett will win as well -- Leggett being the first black county executive in Montgomery County (something the press ignores when talking about Democratic diversity).

  by Naturegal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:13:37 AM PDT

•  OK, I'll Give It A Shot: Mixed Bag

  If I had to guess, I think Cardin pulls this out 53-47. It ends up way closer than it should be but Cardin runs up big margins in Montgomery County, puts up a strong showing in swing Howard County (where voters are accustomed to voting for Cardin) and outperforms O'Malley in Baltimore County enough to pull through. He gets a little help from two very different groups of voters - centrist professionals aware of Steele's religious-right views on social issues, and conservative-leaning white voters in parts of greater Baltimore and Western Maryland who can't get themselves to vote for Steele. These voters combined neutralize much of Steele's increased support among African-Americans.

  But I think Ehrlich wins a second term, 51-49. Incumbency is powerful. And he had one wave of reasonably effective ads aimed at swing voters in the DC suburbs that made him like far more moderate than he really is, and another wave aimed at Baltimore suburbanites that were able to portray Baltimore City as an inner circle of hell. I had O'Malley winning this race for a while, thinking no way does Ehrlich put up those huge margins in Baltimore, Harford, and Anne Arundel Counties like he did against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend...but polling says that's exactly what he's doing. O'Malley wins in Montgomery and Prince George's big, but KKT did in 2002 and that wasn't enough for her. (O'Malley has two places to alter the calculus. One is to make back some of those margins in Howard County, an affluent suburban jurisdiction that's probably more liberal than Baltimore County, even if less nominally Democratic; the other is Charles County, now about one-third African-American and increasingly in the DC orbit and looking better for Dems every year. Ehrlich carried both in 2002, but they've been blue for Gore and Kerry.)

  by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:19:28 AM PDT

  •  great analysis

    I have friend who is in MOM's inner circle and they are still confidant--that is a good sign for me.  The polls on the other hand point to a MOM loss.

    by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:25:32 AM PDT

    •  I disagree about the polls

      while they may show an increase for Ehrlich, I haven't seen a reliable poll that puts him ahead. I can't and won't predict, it's going to be too close. But I'm just going out this weekend to work.

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:38:36 AM PDT

      •  Me too.

        Mikulski is going door to door in my precinct for O'Malley tomorrow.

        That big rally is tonight, too.  You and the spouse should come.

        by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:51:38 AM PDT

        •  I'd love to come

          but the kids have commitments in two different places right at 6:00 - 7:30, and we're on the central-western part of the city, minimum of 30 minute drive in the best of traffic. Serious bummer.

          by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:54:02 AM PDT

        •  Where is this rally?

          by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:02:06 AM PDT

          •  The rally is

            in Southeast Baltimore County (only about 10-15 minutes from most parts of the city) at 7pm tonight.  If you are interested, shoot me an email ([e-mail]) and I will give you directions.  O'Malley, Cardin, and the entire team will be there.  Free food and drinks.  Hundreds of diehard Democrats.  It will be a great time!

            by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:59:02 AM PDT

            •  Darn

              Thought it was tomorrow. I will still be at work (in DC) at 7 tonight. :(

              by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:30:57 AM PDT

        •  Hey Nick

          can't come tonight but I got a call today (robo) from MOM about a city rally on Monday at Federal Hill. I'll be at that one, will reschedule kid's music lesson if I have to.

          Have fun tonight - should be starting as I type this.

          by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 03:57:37 PM PDT

      •  but stich this is a prediction thread

        nt

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:01:58 AM PDT

        •  I'll leave then {{{sniff, sniff}}}

          by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:23:03 AM PDT

          •  no don't leave

            its not who we want to win its who we think will win....

            ps see all the women in the poll!  

            by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:27:06 AM PDT

  •  Ehrlich is not leading by 19% in Balto Co.

    as the Sun poll suggests.  Ive seen internal tracking polls that have him up by single digits in Baltimore County.  He will also lose ground in Anne Arundel County and O'Malley just may take Howard.

    by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:27:30 AM PDT

    •  Howard Co

      is so schizophrenic: eastern part is heavily Democratic, western Republican, but about equal growth in both areas.

      Kudos to Democracy for Howard which is probably the strongest single DFA group in the state, they'll work it hard.

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:39:57 AM PDT

    •  maybe polls are wrong

      but it is all we have to go by

      by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:42:14 AM PDT

•  My prediction.

  O’Malley by 3.  After election night he will be up by 6-8, but Ehrlich will close the gap with the absentee vote. By the way, WTF is up with all the pro-Ehrlich predictions?  Keep hope alive, people.  I mean damn.

  Cardin by 4.

  Duck will do much better than previous candidates, but still come up a little short.

  All of my local pol’s in District 6 will win re-election.  Jim Smith will crush Clarence Bell.

  Robey will defeat Schraeder in the 13th (sort of an upset, as Schraeder is the incumbent)

  We will have a solid projection of the winners on election night.

  by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:25:51 AM PDT

  •  I'm not pro-Ehrlich

    But he's got the momentum, the campaign money, and the power of being in office.

    He's taking advantage of the fact that O'Malley has made more than his share of enemies in Baltimore City, tapped into the longstanding suburbanite fear of all things Baltimore, and has better commercials.

    And its harder to tie him to Bush than if he were running for House or Senate.  

    by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:37:14 AM PDT

    •  yeah, but

      I had an encouraging conversation with someone here at work yesterday who is a city resident, African-American, and very pro-O'Malley. Then I listened to WEAA and then WYPR last night. Made me feel a whole lot better about Cardin's race and encouraged about O'Malley.

      The money giveback by the Ehrlich campaign is making news; Martin is running good new ads reminding people (esp. working people) what Ehrlich's record really is, and the ground game is working well.

      I refuse to make a prediction, but I'm going to remain optimistic, but key is I'm just going to keep working.

      BTW, spouse was phone banking down on Key Highway last night and got good responses - except for those who were upset about having to vote absentee b/c of the mess. But spouse came home very encouraged too.

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:44:24 AM PDT

      •  My Councilman and I have phone banked

        for the past two nights dialing into Southeast Baltimore County and our response has been unbelievable.  Southeast Baltimore County (Dundalk, Essex, etc.) is suppose to be Ehrlich’s second home, but of the 200 or so people we’ve contacted in the past 2 days less than 5% were pro-Ehrlich. A few were undecided, but the vast majority were pro-O’Malley.

        by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:49:03 AM PDT

        •  That was my experience last week in

          Anne Arundel county too. I'm going to go this weekend (got to call) both phone banking and plan to go canvassing on Sunday. Spouse and I will split Monday and Tuesday.

          by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:50:23 AM PDT

          •  And, let me add

            that I was calling unaffiliated voters as well as Dems in AA county, and got no one who supported Ehrlich, and only one person who refused to talk (b/c I was calling from a union hall.)

            by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:51:51 AM PDT

        •  That's incredible

          by SoCalLiberal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:11:25 AM PDT

    •  Sorry if I came across

      as saying you were pro-Ehrlich.  I was refering to the predictions.

      Just a little frustrating to think Ehrlich is within striking distance.

      Ive put my life into this campaign.  I was actually with the Mayor this morning at a sign wave from 6:30-8:30.  Over 100 supporters showed up.  After work I'll campaign for another 4-5 hours.  His support is much stronger than KKT's in places like Southeast Baltimore County.

      by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:44:27 AM PDT

      •  Where do you find out about sign waves?

        I'd be happy to do that, and so good to hear about the numbers!

        by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:45:24 AM PDT

        •  We have a newsletter for Southeast Baltimore

          County.  My Councilman puts it together.  Im sure you could contact the campaign, but I doubt there will be many more sign waves.

          GOTV!

          by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:54:05 AM PDT

    •  Plus

      it's always more interesting to hear honest opinions.  It becomes an echo chamber when we say what we are suppose to say...sort of like the hannity crowd

      by Cat4everrr on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:45:16 AM PDT

    •  O'Malley is running a great campaign

      And I think he'll pull it out, but we need to have his back.  He is a candidate that we absolutely need.  Incumbency is powerful though, so I hope if he does lose (and I think he won't), we better not throw him under a bus.

      by stephdray on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:42:20 AM PDT

      •  calm down

        who would throw him under the bus? why would anyone do that?

        While I don't have crush on him like some do......he is a great candidate (cute, well spoken, smart), a great dem (he took the hit for kkt in 2002 and he stayed out the mfume mess), a good mayor (i disagree with some of his policies but so what?), and from all accounts an all around great guy.

        nobody is going to throw him under any bus.

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:59:38 AM PDT

        •  The papers are already saying

          That if he loses this race, his career is over.  That really infuriates me.  And you have to admit, as Democrats, we do have a tendency to freak out after elections and condemn the very people who were helping us.

          And yeah, I don't know if I'd call it a crush, but after seeing him at the rally last Saturday, it was love in that way that I loved Bill Clinton the first time I saw him speak.  It was the 'it' factor ;)

          by stephdray on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:03:09 AM PDT

          •  i know what you are talking about with clinton :)

            and yes you have gushed on about our mayor.

            i didn't see that in the paper.  he seems so natural on the stump but i guess the options in MD are limited becasue of all the safe seats--md dems headed to dc are elected for life.  

            what about another run for gov?

            by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:08:58 AM PDT

            •  It is

              a tendency of Dems to declare anyone who loses a race a "LOSER" for all time.

              The GOP is more likely to allow that person to run again.  It's the way it has been during my lifetime; I was born after Adlai Stevenson.

              If O'Malley wins, Bob will run in four years.  If Bob wins....????

              by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:02:51 AM PDT

•  My optimistic me...

  ...is winning over my pessimistic me.

  O'Malley +2

  O'Malley's hard work while Bobby coasts this week is the difference.

  Cardin +5

  As Doni Glover told Richard Vatz yesterday, black voters don't need white conservatives telling them they're "patsies" for voting Dem.

  Bartlett (that last T makes all the difference)+10

  Duck is closer than most of the others, but old habits die hard.  Sorry, but I'm just not THAT optimistic.

  Carroll Co. Commissioners

  Gouge
  Minnich
  Beard (D) First Dem elected in Carroll in this century to any office.    

  by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:44:09 AM PDT

  •  I heard that on the radio yesterday

    Glover did such a good smack-down of Vatz! Tee hee! BTW, we were in the car and my kids wanted to listen to it too. Their comment was that the Republican guy was 'whiny.'

    I also listened to WEAA just before that, Glover's show with Steiner, Sherilynn Ifill (pls excuse spelling) Bishop Miles, and Pastor Foster Connors, as well as some Republican guy whose name I didn't catch, really. There, the Republican hack also came across as petulant, and perseverant on certain points to the point of being obsessive. Not to mention incredibly rude.

    The whole exchange, on both shows, really made me feel a whole lot better, for just the reasons you mention.

    by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:49:18 AM PDT

    •  I couldn't believe

      Vatz actually said that Anthony Brown didn't count as an African American candidate because his father is Jamaican and his mother is Swiss.

      I emailed Steiner about it.  He should let Vatz lie in the mud with WBOB 1090.

      The other unbelievable segment was when he fell back on the old bit about Democrats being the segregationists in the South, told them he isn't a Republican, and talked about his contributions to Morris Dees.  It wasn't Vatz's most persuasive performance.

      Kevin Dayhoff and Tom Schaller had a civil yet partisan discussion with Mark the day before. I don't know why Vatz is so shrill, nasty, and smug.

      How is that persuasive?  

      by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:16:16 AM PDT

      •  I thought about emailing again

        but I thought Glover handled him well, and Steiner's pointed silence after Vatz's comment about 'not being a Republican' was priceless.

        I don't think Vatz persuades anyone, not on WYPR. He's become a cariacature.

        I missed the show the day before. I don't get to listen much during the day, and infrequently in the evening.

        by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:26:28 AM PDT

      •  And something else

        I just thought of:

        Spouse heard Keiffer Mitchell talk over the weekend, and one of the points that was brought up was 'where is Anthony Brown' in this campaign. Mitchell apparently said there were some issues in part b/c Brown identifies himself as "Jamaican-Swiss" and not as African American (Glover referred to this as being part of the African diaspora, thought that was a good one.) But after Vatz's comments, I'm wondering if Mitchell's comments are about Brown himself or if they reflect the pervasiveness of the Republican meme.

        The Republicans have been very, very effective in driving home issues about O'Malley in the city African American community, aided by the loudmouthed nasty Greens and in fact by Doc Cheatham. I just hope to heaven that these chickens don't come home to roost.

        by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:48:32 AM PDT

        •  Could you say more

          about Cheatham's role, please?

          by count on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:58:45 AM PDT

          •  Doc Cheatham and the Baltimore chapter

            of the NAACP filed suit against the police dept, I believe they're the named defendants, over the arrest policies. I can't tell you at this point if O'Malley is named or not (it was covered by the Sun but now in the archives) but it's certainly added to the noise around these issues.

            by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:06:14 AM PDT

            •  Damn that Doc Cheatham

              Sticking up for black people.

              What is he thinking?  Doesn't he know we have an election to win?  What's a few hundred illegally arrested black people compared to O'Malley winning the election?

              by RobbBlack on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 12:09:10 PM PDT

          •  can I please explain

            this has been really eating at me because when I went back and looked, my comments really don't reflect what I believe. I am probably going to make things worse by saying anything, though.

            Let me first say why I have come to despise the Greens: it was when I kept seeing their literature and other things calling O'Malley a racist, and worse, but the racist label has been pervasive and ugly. It serves no purpose other to inflame and cause hatred and anger, and it's disgusting. Please don't get me wrong; I certainly think the whole issue of what has happened with the police and arrests needs to be investigated without a doubt.

            As for my comment about Cheatham, I was referring back to the radio show I mentioned, where Glover was talking about people churning up flames of racial anger about this, and I believe he mentioned Cheatham but then went on to talk about how O'Malley campaigned on an anti-crime ticket, which I've mentioned elsewhere. I'll just say this: I should not have mentioned Cheatham in conjunction with this thread, and not the way I did. I cannot explain where I was going other than what I've said, and I can do no more than apologize. And I truly do apologize.

            The current Urbanite mag cover topic is race: why Baltimore won't talk about it. Haven't read all of it, but it's a topic that needs to be discussed.

            I don't fault Cheatham for taking important and necessary stands and my comment was simply wrong, particularly in the way it was worded.

            I just feel very strongly that lobbing accusations of being a racist against O'Malley (or almost anyone else, for that matter) is not helpful, and it's far more likely to end conversation than to begin it.

            Speaking to you now from a very deep hole.

            by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:11:04 PM PDT

        •  He's black

          When some racist feels like calling him the N word, they aren't going to sit around wondering if he's Jamaican-Swiss, or from Kenya.  What a load of drivel.

          And Brown has been on the campaign trail with O'Malley tirelessly.  They are working their tails off.  My only suggestion to them would be that when they're working for re-election, split up and cover more ground.

          by stephdray on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:00:35 AM PDT

          •  here is/was the rub

            Brown identifies himself as "Jamaican-Swiss"

            it is how he defines himself--somewhat like tiger woods, who defines himself as thai-american.  it is a personal thing.

            by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:20:14 AM PDT

            •  what I was getting at was

              whether this is Brown's way of identifying himself, or something the Republicans have put out as a big issue based on something he may have said. Vatz's comments make me lean toward the latter, at least that that has made it a bigger deal.

              But I agree with stephdray, and it's what Mitchell said, too: he's black; and I like what Glover said about him being part of the 'diaspora.'

              by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:50:43 AM PDT

              •  over the years

                he's tried to avoid race classification. I can understand that -- I have one European and one Latin parent. Can't please either side of the family.

                Politically however, it makes it tough to identify with a constituency, white or black. And in Maryland, it's tough to sit on the fence, realistically speaking.

                by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:54:04 AM PDT

                •  like tiger woods

                  nt

                  by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 11:19:41 AM PDT

                  •  Jolene Ivey

                    She's the wife of PG State's Attorney Glenn Ivey and ran for delegate in District 47. She was pretty much a shoe-in, in fact the incumbent slate pushed out one of its members (Rosetta Parker - Chillum) for her. (Note: the general is non-competitive, so it's a done deal now).

                    D47 is basically Cheverly, Bladensburg, Hyattsville, Chillum. Majority-black. Despite the fact that her position was secure, questions on her heritage rattled Ivey enough to post a web page on her site, essentially disowning her white birth mother.

                    Check it out, it's instructive.

                    Another example is Joseline Pena-Melnyk, another house freshman as of Tuesday. She is from the Dominican Republic -- Hispanic (as this refers strictly to language) but obviously Afro-Caribbean. Asked multiple times: Are you really black?

                    Yes, one can say "part of the African diaspora" -- that's the educated answer. After all, one destination cotton, one sugar cane, what's the diff?

                    But in local politics, it does make a difference, because if you're mixed, people want you to take a stand. More to the point -- the question is what interests are you representing? It is not an unfair question, either. After all, a breezy "I transcend all of that" could be viewed as a form of triangulation.

                    As long as political issues of the day surround questions like: does a white minority in majority-minority area control the economic wealth, or do illegal immigrants condemn black youth to low- (or no) income opportunities, these questions will be asked -- but what they really mean is whose interests will you be representing?

                     

                    by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 12:23:22 PM PDT

            •  baltimoremom

              recced for the gray box.

              by count on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 12:59:21 PM PDT

  •  Vatz is such a windbag. n/t

    by andy k on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:04:01 AM PDT

•  Carcetti by a whisker

  Sorry...couldn't resist.

  by markm on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:49:20 AM PDT

  •  Bubbles for Prez, '08 n/t

    by andy k on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:57:13 AM PDT

•  My prediction

  O'Malley and Cardin win by nearly identical margins both of which are narrow.  Say 52%-47%.  Both have win with different voters though.  A huge turnout in Prince Georges County gives O'Malley his margin of victory while white suburbanites in Balitmore give Cardin his victory.  Steele does somewhat better in Prince Georges County but still loses the black vote by a large margin.  On election night, Steele concedes by giving a speech on race relations flanked by Don King, Mike Tyson, Usher, and O.J. Simpson.  Not worry though because Kanye West will be at Cardin's victory speech.  Ehrlich on the other hand will not be so gracious.  He will refuse to concede (even after all the votes are counted showing a clear loss), yell and scowl at some reporters asking him questions, and simply drive home and refuse to cede office.  He'll only do it later by calling Baltimore's City Hall at 4 am and leaving a message.  

  Oh and Doug Gansler and Peter Franchot win too.  The key for O'Malley is African American voters.  If they turnout in high numbers (and I suspect they will), I think he'll win.  If they don't, he will face a long election night.  He also needs a large turnout from Baltimore City residents.  I would think Baltimore residents would be pissed off at Ehrlich for constantly taking swipes at their city and come out to vote him out of office.

  by SoCalLiberal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:03:43 AM PDT

  •  Nice

    I bought a house in Charm City just over a year ago, and I'm mad as hell at my governor for his constant trashing of my new hometown in commercial.

    Does he think Baltimore City is in some other state? (By that, I mean both that we do vote in this state and that his administration has some power, and thus responsibility, in Baltimore, particular as relates to the schools.)  

    by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:07:26 AM PDT

    •  It reminds me

      As much as I detest Ronald Reagan, George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson, and Arnold Gropenfuhrer, they have NEVER trashed their constituents.  You will never hear Arnold out there bashing Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Santa Clara, San Jose, Berkeley or even the San Fernando Valley.  Ehrlich trashes Baltimore to a sickening level.  He is the arch type of what I hate about Republicans.  I hope O'Malley wins just for the sake of showing to any other politcians who may try to copy Ehrlich that you cannot bash your own constituents.  

      by SoCalLiberal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:18:16 AM PDT

      •  That's One Way...

        ..Ehrlich is like Bush/Cheney.

        I'm from Massachusetts. During the campaign I heard Dick Cheney talk about how uncomfortable he is there because it's full of liberals. No reaction from the media.

        Imagine the uproar John Kerry had said that about Alabama or Kansas or Wyoming.

        by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:36:38 AM PDT

        •  My sister

          is from Prince Georges, but now lives in Massachusetts.  She complains about how conservative it is once you leave Boston.

          For the record, she lives in Lunenburg.

          by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:21:08 AM PDT

          •  Massachusetts

            isn't uniformly liberal, but there isn't much I'd call conservative about it, at least not in the Bush-Cheney sense of that term. (Set in their ways, or old-fashioned, in many places perhaps.)

            A town-by-town map does feature a surprising number of Bay State towns that Bush-Cheney did win in 2004. Lunenburg may be one of them for all I know, since Worcester County (I grew up in Worcester, but in the city, and that's a Dem stronghold) had more than its share.  

            by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:28:52 AM PDT

            •  Where my sister used to work

              it was all about the guns in every election.

              by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:04:44 AM PDT

    •  Damned skippy! n/t

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:27:29 AM PDT

  •  more turnout numbers

    I saw this in the Post today.  These are different numbers reflecting black turnout.  The 19-25% assumed in the polls must be percent of total votes cast and 41-52% is percent of registered blacks that actually voted. (i could be wrong tho)

    The percentage of registered black voters that cast ballots dropped to 41 percent in 2002 from 52 percent in the 1998 midterm election. Some political observers believe that contributed to her loss to Ehrlich (R).

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:16:13 AM PDT

    •  But

      their percentage of the total electorate only dropped by one point.  

      Total turnout must also have been off.

      If we turnout more of our base, it will certainly help us win, but we do need to get O'Malley back closer to even in Balt Co., AA co., and Howard.

      by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:19:38 AM PDT

      •  help me make the leap?

        By comparison, African Americans comprised 24 percent of Maryland's turnout in the 2004 presidential election, 22 percent in the 2002 governor's election and 21 percent in the 1998 governor's race, according to exit polls.

        http://blog.washingtonpost.com/...

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:33:22 AM PDT

        •  That link didn't work for me

          Still, the quote you pulled actually states that black turnout was 1% higher as a portion of the electorate in 2002 than it was in 1998.  I had that backward.

          If black turnout was 11% lower as a percentage of black registered voters in 2002 than in 1998 and their part of the general electorate actually increased slightly, it follows that every other group also fell off a similar or slightly higher amount.

          Either that, or the number of black registered voters grew exponentially between 1998 and 2002.

          In either case, it doesn't really support the meme that a depressed black turnout doomed KKT, at least not directly.  The whole electorate must have been depressed.  Of course that depression, white, black, and everyone else, may have been more pronounced among solid Dem voters than among GOP and swing voters.

          Let's not twist ourselves in knots, though.  In 2002, Ehrlich got more of his vote out than KKT did.  We need to reverse that on Tuesday, bottom line.

          by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:32:03 AM PDT

          •  i agree vote was depressed

            i was depressed.  voting for her was depressing.

            nevertheless, the 11% reduction is important because blacks vote dem 9 out of 10 times.  so it was a disproportionate loss for kkt--even if state turnout was depressed overall (which we were then and are not now) she lost more votes propotionately because blacks stayed home.

            right?  that's why the 41-52 numbers seem to tell the story better than the others. and btw, they are not predictive at all.  we just have to wait and see.

            by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:50:43 AM PDT

          •  no, it doesn't

            t doesn't really support the meme that a depressed black turnout doomed KKT, at least not directly.

            I wouldn't put much creedence into exit polling on this -- which is what the WP is doing.

            Nevertheless, I agree with the above statement -- actual turnout figures in majority-minority jurisdicitons don't support the conventional wisdom.

            by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 01:13:54 PM PDT

    •  O'Malley needs more than 52%

      And fortunately, Michael Steele will help him with that.  The way I see it, Steele will get a couple of crossover African American votes that normally go Democratic but an equally large number of black voters will turn out to vote against Steele.  The handling of Hurricane Katrina by this administration and the Republican in congress was not just a travesty but an assault on African Americans.  And I don't think African Americans have forgotten.  Those in charge need to be punished for what happenned.  People were first left to die in New Orleans and then were left in a city with no food, no water, no supplies, no electricity, no medicine, nothing.  Blacks were left to lie in their own filth, it was disgusting.  And it was the government's fault too, specifically the white Republican leaders in charge. I am still angry and I imagine I'm not the only one.  That's why I think the turnout will be very high across the country.  I think this is being underestimated in the polls.  The displaced New Orleans blacks may not be able to vote but blacks across the country will be out voting in force.  Plus having Anthony Brown on the ticket doesn't hurt either for O'Malley.

      by SoCalLiberal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:27:07 AM PDT

      •  not so sure

        I don't know PG well, but blacks up here won't be voting against Steele.  I don't see or hear any animosity toward Steele.  However, that doesn't mean that they will necesarily vote for him.  

        And I can see a Steele - O'Mally split.  The more Steele turns out the black vote the better for O'Malley.

        The Katrina link in this election is weak.

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:37:59 AM PDT

        •  The blacks from PG I know

          Don't like Steele but then again, it's a small sample size that might not be representative.  

          The Katrina link in this election is weak.

          That's a huge shame.  That is by far the worst of Dubya's administration.  It's the worst because it was an entirely preventable tragedy, it was government incompetence at its worst, and it showed how racist Republicans in are.  It made our country a laughing stock.  

          by SoCalLiberal on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:45:38 AM PDT

          •  i agree

            but I don't think anyone blames it on steele or ehrlich.  that's kind of a stretch?

            by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:53:10 AM PDT

            •  You're probably right

              but you should be wrong. Just taking Katrina as an example:

              The Katrina response wasn't incompetence by the particular individuals who happened to be staffing the relevant agencies at that moment in time, in my opinion. It was, instead, the inevitable and predictable consequence of a philosophy that Ehrlich and Steele support.

              Michael Brown wasn't confirmed to be FEMA director but he was confirmed to be the deputy director. In his confirmation hearing, he told the committee that the government objected to the idea that FEMA aid was an entitlement. He said that states expected too much help from the feds, and the federal position, under Bush, was that the real job had to be done by local and state agencies together with other groups (private, NGO, and faith-based.) In other words, more personal responsibility, don't count on the feds to help you.

              Much has been made of the Hurricane Pam preparedness exercise. That exercise was concluded with a FEMA report to the stakeholder participants. The report said, essentially, these are the problems, this is what must be done to solve the problems. Fixing the problems is not a federal responsibility. If you want the problems fixed, the states have to step up, the cities and counties need to do their part. If you want federal help, get your Representatives and Senators to pass the legislation, otherwise you're on your own.

              I don't have the FEMA report, in case you want a link. My information comes from a friend of one of my children, who works for FEMA and participated in the Pam exercise.

              by count on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:19:03 AM PDT

  •  Unfortunately...

    ...some in the City agree with Ehrlich.  Some don't like O'Malley for the excessive arrests, others think the police don't do enough.  A coworker of mine said that she believes the police and drug dealers are in business together.

    There was nothing I could say in reply.

    by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:22:28 AM PDT

    •  Some points

      as Glover said last night on WEAA, O'Malley was elected on a fighting crime platform. and he got more votes that Bell and Stokes together in 1999. I talked to someone yesterday who said that he thinks things are better than they used to be, but that the people of Baltimore need to take their city back too. Then we got into a discussion about the Dawson family, and we have to remember that that incident had a huge effect on O'Malley.

      And the issues about the police are not new. You've been around for a while, right? How many years have the police sat and watched the corners and not done anything?

      We ARE doing better in the city, even though it hasn't hit everywhere. But it is better. Even the man I was talking too, who, btw, grew up in Cherry Hill, said things are better in the city.

      Keep the positive messages coming. Hey, we're number 12!

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:40:08 AM PDT

      •  more about economy than policy

        I have been here since 1988 and things are a lot better in the city.  The economic upturn nationally has helped in all knds of ways.

        The  ehrlich ads are why urban mayors have a really hard time moving up.  Try and name an urban mayor who was elected to higher office--there aren't many.

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:49:08 AM PDT

        •  I've heard that before

          and I don't really buy it. I've seen  other cities (Cincinnati, Richmond, to name a couple) where the surrounding areas are doing well but the city continues to crumble.

          There was no development in Baltimore under Schmoke, the schools continued to deteriorate, people were fleeing. When we made the commitment to stay in the city even after the kids were born, I can't tell you how many people thought we were nuts, even our liberal friends.

          I know a lot of people now who have moved back into the city, even with kids. Look at Answer Guy, who has moved into the city! He's only one, the population has stabilized, the tax base has stabilized. The energy is up, there is development and redevelopment going on. The downside is the problem of decent, affordable housing, which has become increasingly rare, but that's not just in the city; it's a regional issue; and the fact that it is a regional issue compounds the problems in the city, specifically in low income areas.

          And surrounding areas haven't necessarily done as well; there are increasing problems in northeast Baltimore County and in the Dundalk/Essex area particularly with crime, drugs, and gangs, not to mention Columbia. But you don't hear about those areas in Ehrlich's ads, do you.

          Not all problems are O'Malley's fault, nor can he claim all credit for what has happened. But there have been issues of promotion of the city, increased energy, the fact that he has been, at least initially as mayor, a huge cheerleader for Baltimore, and the fact that despite Ehrlich's best attempts to make this city look like the pits of the earth, there are a lot of us who are out talking about our city with great pride every day.

          by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:12:45 AM PDT

          •  Hear, hear.

            Not a city resident, but I work, go to college, and spend a lot of leisure time in the city.  I like to tell people I spend 70% of my 'awake time' in the city.

            by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:50:44 AM PDT

            •  I spend 95% of my time

              in the city, awake or not. Live here, work here, send my kids to school here, go to church here.

              Getting even to Towson is a major expedition these days.

              I love my city.

              by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:51:58 AM PDT

          •  yabbut

            When we made the commitment to stay in the city even after the kids were born, I can't tell you how many people thought we were nuts, even our liberal friends.

            All depends on where you live, of course. Roland Park and Bolton Hill have fared well over various adminstrations. Roland Park bordered on suburban, last time I was there.

            I lived for six months in a 'lesser' area of the city -- near the art school. Most of the downsides of urban living with few of the amenities, I'd have to say.

            Re: affordable housing -- I know any number of people in my (dc) area who, until recently, made a living by flipping/investing/rehabbing properties in Baltimore city, primarily low-income areas. Is this the primary contribution to tax base stabilization, or are you referring to other events/policies? How has the (presumed) displacement of low-income residents affected the area? For example, all of the development/revitalization in DC has caused a crisis of sorts (certainly a political one) in migration to Prince Georges's, both permanent and temporary, in order to use Maryland services.

            by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:34:04 AM PDT

            •  hm

              we do live in Roland Park, but at the time we made the decision we lived in Charles Village, before it was up and coming. We would have stayed there were it entirely my choice, but we outgrew our house and spouse was tired of the students.

              There are a number of city areas that have improved in the last 5 years or so: Hampden/Medfield, where Answer Guy indicated he lives; Charles Village as I noted above; Lauraville/Arcadia/Beverly Hills where the Mayor himself lives; these areas have all done quite well. Certainly the east side, notably Canton, has really been up and coming, but I will admit that did start before O'Malley's arrival. Then there are areas that are starting to make a turnaround, like Reservoir Hill, upper Fells Point, etc. That has provided an opportunity for people to do like the people you mention; but I have any number of patients who fit the profile of the other poster I mention, who have moved to Baltimore because it's affordable for them, certainly more so that the D.C. suburbs north or south.

              The affortability issues I'm talking about, and that have angered people in the city about O'Malley has to do with affordable housing for low-income people. It's such an incredibly complicated issue that I can't go into it here well. But there is a lot of redevelopment going on in various areas, and there's been a task force on inclusionary housing to address this problem. This is spouse's area of expertise, but basically it has to do with providing housing that is affordable at some percentage of the area mean income, say 50% or 30%. The big problem in that kind of calculation, however, is that the area mean income can include the whole region, the Baltimore/Washington SMSA, which has a particularly high income, and that won't even begin to help the people in Baltimore City where the income is much lower than the region in general.

              As housing prices have risen in the city, this problem has gotten worse; moreover, there are a number of areas that have undergone the issues of displacement you mention; and there is not a small amount of resentment that, well, frankly, the biggest chunk of redevelopment has happened in traditionally 'white' areas, and the wealth has not been spread around. These are some of the issues fueling the resentment in the city, other than the police issue.

              by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 11:00:55 AM PDT

    •  You could point out

      What a hissy O'Malley had when he finally caught a corrupt drug dealer, and the prosecutor refused to prosecute because evidence disappeared.  Nobody is more on top of this than O'Malley.

      by stephdray on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:46:37 AM PDT

      •  Yeah, Jessamy has been nothing but a hindrance

        cannot stand her. I will never vote for her, even this time when she's running unopposed.

        by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:04:00 AM PDT

        •  She needs to be defeated.

          Her eye is on the City Hall.

          by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:51:34 AM PDT

•  Ehlirch, Cardin and... Duck!

  Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but I think Ehlrich and Cardin will pull it out because the crucial voters are scared of black people - hence they'll vote Ehlrich cuz O'Malley reminds them of all the black crime in Balmer, and Cardin because Steele reminds them of the same.

  Duck? Maybe just wishful thinking, because god I hate Roscoe Bartlett, but on the ground, Bartlett's support is weak and Duck's passionate. There are more Duck signs than cows in Frederick County (that's a lot), and the only Bartlett signs are for Roscoe's son.  I know Frederick's not the only part of 06, but it's a huge part, and I think it may be enough.

  by Fredneck on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:30:48 AM PDT

  •  Bartlett on radio

    I forgot to mention that I heard, for the first time ever, an actual ad for Roscoe Bartlett. It was all about his environmental record and alternative energy (even the wingnuts in Maryland pretend to be liberal).

    by Fredneck on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:38:55 AM PDT

    •  Actually

      not in defense of ol' Roscoe, but he does have a long record on alternative energy promotion and energy independence for the US. Of course, as spouse has pointed out, that's at least due in part to the fact that he has a company that invests in alternative energy.

      by stitchmd on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:42:07 AM PDT

  •  Duck!

    I was at Carroll County Community College (C squared) for field hockey over the weekend and I was amazed at the number of Duck signs.  That would be something to celebrate.

    by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:40:26 AM PDT

    •  Field hockey

      Who was playing?

      My wife refs field hockey.

      by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:35:08 AM PDT

      •  catonsville rec

        nt

        by baltimoremom on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:51:57 AM PDT

        •  Ah, my wife sticks to high school nt

          by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:07:47 AM PDT

•  Anthony Brown Carries More Weight

  in the African American community than Michael Steele. He has a constituency and more street level contact than Steele has ever shown. While anecdotal, my contacts in PG favor O'Malley/Brown and are mixed on Cardin/Steele.

  PG, Montgomery, Howard and Baltimore City all trend Blue enough to balance out the Repub bias elsewhere. IMHO this means a democratic sweep if we push our personal ground game and get friends and family to the polls.

  I want my country back - Please Help!

  by tmmike on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:37:54 AM PDT

•  Dems Sweep (except in MD-06)

  O'Malley/Brown by 5%

  Cardin by 7%

  Bartlett by 8% (which would be a big deal for that district, and MD Dems should get some good voter ID stats from this race for use in 2008)

  Franchot and Gansler will have no problem at all.

  If the races are closer than this, there will be some disputes over abesentee ballots, and it will suck horribly.

  by andy k on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 07:55:55 AM PDT

  •  I have that feeling

    we won't know the Gov or Senate results for days.

    Look at how long it took to get the Cardin-Mfume race counted.

    by howie14 on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 08:36:41 AM PDT

•  Turnout

  is the key predictor.

  Montgomery - robust
  Prince George's and Baltimore City - depressed

  Senate prediction: Cardin

  Prince George's voters have seen it all before -- in 1998, Curry was campaigning against Glendening. Democrats did not consider this a non-competitive election. Glendening (with the help of Henson) painted Sauerbrey as the anti-civil rights candidate. It was unprecedented turnout in Baltimore City/Prince George's that gave Glendening his large-margin win.

  PG Democratic turnout
  ---------------------

  2002 GE: 56.66
  1998 GE: 62.85
  1994 GE: 55.58

  The reverse gambit by Curry/Steele will not materialize -- I do not see voters in PG energized for Steele by painting the Democratic Party as anti-civil rights. Dissatisfaction will manifest itself as low turnout. Curry will fail in converting dissatisfaction into Steele votes because he did not present proactive, compelling reasons to support candidate Steele (just as Democrats are "tying Steele to Bush" instead of a proactive message).

  It is telling that both parties are tying themselves to "Mr. Baggage" himself, Kweisi Mfume, by prominently displaying his picture on their respective slate ballots (the GOP are doing so w/o permission). Curry's comment on the GOP's implication of "Mfume-endorsed" was "smart". However, it won't carry the day for Steele, because:

  STEELE is not MFUME -- and not even a reasonable substitute. And any Mfume supporter understands what I mean. Steele won't achieve the margins he needs to beat Cardin, who will enjoy big numbers in Montgomery.

  Governor: Ehrlich

  O'Malley needs Baltimore City & Prince George's, and I don't think he'll get the turnout numbers he needs. Both jurisdictions will be majority O'Malley/Brown, w/o a doubt, but turnout will be the problem.

  I just don't see "the juice" in Prince George's. I've gone back thru neighborhoods I canvassed for the primary, and lackadaisical is an understatement, in sharp contrast to what I see in Montgomery.

  The Anthony Brown factor? Sure, people who go to the polls will vote for him, but he doesn't motivate high turnout. Outside of the support he'll get in his legislative district, he doesn't identify well, in a Grand Poobah sense.

  Statewide, there will be a sufficient number of so-called fiscal moderates to give Ehrlich his win. Race has dominated discussion of the election (somewhat unfairly), whereas I believe that a substantial nr of Marylanders continue to embrace "less government", which is why 1994 & 2002 were so competitive. That African-Americans are slowly moving toward to more independent political positions is just natural evolution, and Democrats would be wise to pay attention. I tend to lump the  African-Americans Democrats who "stray" from the fold with the white Democrats who do the same: either social conservatives or fiscal conservatives.

  p.s baltimoremom -- will email later today.  

  by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 09:04:47 AM PDT

  •  Thats a shame. I figured turnout would be decent

    in PG, especially with the national party holding such a strong interest in the senate race.  Obviously any votes for Cardin and then some will translate into support for O'Malley.

    by nickshepDEM on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:02:42 AM PDT

    •  that only started yesterday ...

      so perhaps there'll be some change by Tues ...

      The College Park event in Sept -- not so much. County residents don't gravitate to the univ on a weekday at 9:00 am, honestly.

      We had a number of divisive primaries -- everyone's worn out and tired of it all. The lower races are generally uncompetitive for the GE.

      We'll see if the current ramp-up bears fruit. O'Malley wins with turnout.

      by kindertotenlieder on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:07:02 AM PDT

•  What happened to white guy

  who is 35?

  That describes me.

  Anywhoo, here's my predictions:

  O'Malley by 2.

  Cardin by 6.

  Bartlett beats Duck.

  Local races...I ain't predicting.  It'll get me into too much hot water.

  ;-)

  by wmtriallawyer on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 11:36:46 AM PDT

  •  AA County Exec

    Johnson by 2

    by RobbBlack on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 12:10:29 PM PDT

    •  I hope so Robb.

      I pray that it is the case, in fact.

      by wmtriallawyer on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 12:18:28 PM PDT

•  Massive Theft

  Ehrlich, narrowly.  Steele by two-three points.  Years of recriminations.

  I have gone from moderately fearful about this election to seriously out-and-out paranoid.  I feel better about Jim Webb's chances of winning his race than I feel about Ben Cardin's chances of winning his.

  Sorry to be a downer, and I fervently hope, of course, that my gut is wrong.

  by landruajm on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 06:17:20 AM PDT

  •  are you from PG?

    and very few, if any, pundits are thinking steele will win........why you?

    by baltimoremom on Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 12:38:51 PM PDT

    •  Nope, MoCo

      Mostly paranoia, I hope.  

      by landruajm on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 03:09:15 AM PDT