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I always get a chuckle out of the folks who say "some scientists" question global warming... because the US NAVY sure as hell doesn't have any question about it.  In fact, they appear to be positioning themselves to ask for a whole new fleet to police the newly opened seas!  Consider this recently declassified report:

It's called "Naval Operations in an Ice Free Arctic"

The big predictions:
· Within five years, the Northern Sea Route (aka the Northeast Passage) will be open to non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least two months each summer.

· Within 5-10 years, the Northwest Passage will be open to
non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least one month each summer

· Both Russia and Canada assert policies holding navigable straits in the NSR and Northwest Passage under their exclusive control. The United State differs in its interpretation of the status of these straits, with a potential for conflict

· Within 5-10 years, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan will remain ice-free throughout the year.

This raises at least one interesting question...

Wonder why these tree-huggers got their panties all in a knot over this?  It means the navy will need a whole new fleet to defend/patrol these waters.  Of course these hemp-wearing, granola-munching, denizens of the reality-based world don't have much impact on the opinions of shills like Krauthammer.  I am still steamed about his crap from last year following Katrina.  He seriously argued in an op-ed piece there was no relationship between warmer water and hurricane strength.  Talk about not having a leg to stand on....

Krauthammer's point was ludicrous to the point of irresponsible. Of course there is a relationship between global warming and the intensity of hurricanes.  The fact that people are publishing this in places like Science and Nature and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science demonstrates just how well this stuff is understood by scientists. The fact that the people arguing the opposite are shills for oil,coal,automotive, and deforestation interests does nothing to undercut the scientific consensus.

Here's a slide from one of the presentations, in case you think they are unclear on the concept:

This just makes last week's news regarding NTSA's refusal of 50,000 free copies of An Inconvenient Truth all the more outrageous.  It is a clear example of the sort of politically motivated  ostrich behavior we have grown accustomed to over the last several years.  But that's not the worst part.  Scalia's ad lib during today's oral arguments shows how positively surreal this whole debate has become.  When he was corrected for not knowing the difference between the stratosphere and troposphere he responded by saying, "I told you I'm not a scientist. That's why I don't want to deal with global warming."    

The sad truth is whether Justice Scalia likes it or not, the laws of physics are strictly enforced.  If you doubt that, ask Sonny Bono.

Originally posted to 8ackgr0und N015e on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 05:42 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  nothing to see here (5+ / 0-)

    move along, move along, there is no global warming.


  •  Hey! That's our melting ice! (5+ / 0-)

    You guys wanna paddle through those waters, well, I hope Bush is prepared to ask nicely for permission first!


    Yeah. It's horrible.

    Canadians: We love our pot so much that when we run out, we send the army to find more!

    by KiaRioGrl79 on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 05:46:43 PM PST

  •  most of the deniers at this point don't deny (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    debedb, Rex Manning

    the warming.

    They deny that it's man-made.  It's just the next step of denial so they don't have to do anything about it.

    CA-50: exile Brian Bilbray from Congress in 2008.

    by thereisnospoon on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 05:50:58 PM PST

  •  Nice catch, thanks. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    8ackgr0und N015e

    To be fair, some the more rational of the nuts don't deny worldwide climate warming, they just say one of "you can't prove humans are primarily responsible", or "hey, maybe it's actually a good thing", or even "there's nothing we can do about it anyway, so don't worry, be happy".

    This report (from back in April 2001, by the way) makes no judgement about why the icepack is shrinking,  just that it certainly is, and the Navy needs to do something about it.

    Do happen to know if anything further has happened to prepare the Navy for an ice-free Arctic?  I mean in the last 5 years?  Wouldn't surprise me if the current administration has dropped the ball here as well.

    Man, there's a lot of balls on the ground.  :-)


    •  Lot of balls on the ground...pretty funny... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      of course they have balls to spare.

      Mything The Point © Examining the unexamined beliefs America accepts on faith value.

      by 8ackgr0und N015e on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 06:10:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Talk about balls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ripzaw, JayBat

        10,000 EPA scientists file mass petition for action on global warming

        Washington, DC — In an unprecedented action, representatives for more than 10,000 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency scientists are calling on Congress to take immediate action against global warming, according to a petition released today by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER). The petition also calls for an end to censorship of agency scientists and other specialists on topics of climate change and the effects of air pollution.

        The petition stresses that time is running out to prevent cataclysmic environmental changes induced by human-caused pollution and urges Congress to undertake prompt actions:

        "If we wait, we will be committing the next generation of Americans to approximately double the current global warming concentrations, with the associated adverse impacts on human health and the environment."

        Well-intended, demoralized, down but not out.  

  •  I am too lazy to look it up (0+ / 0-)

    But I think even the NYT had a series about the norwegians and other nordic nations setting up supply camps all over the artic to make sure their claims are not bogarted by the Russians and the US.

    Japan wants it all to stay international waters so they can extract the fish.

    The biggest threat to America is not communism, it's moving America toward a fascist theocracy... -- Frank Zappa

    by NCrefugee on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 06:11:20 PM PST

  •  Antonin (Torquemada) Scalia... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is the most scientifically illiterate SC justice in history.  He is an ant-iDarwinian medievalist who was born 500 years too late and resents the world he lives in.  If he is that ignorant of science, he should recuse himself from this case.

  •  Recommended (0+ / 0-)

    Great diary

    Is Karl Rove still entitled to "THE MATH"?

    by pontificator on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 07:11:48 PM PST

  •  great catch (0+ / 0-)

    The cracks are really showing now.  The faith-based crowd is getting elbowed aside as people rush by to deal with the reality that they can't see because their clasped hands are so tightly covering their eyes.

    Education? Teaching? NCLB? Read my book _Becoming Mr. Henry_

    by Mi Corazon on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 08:38:58 PM PST

  •  I think ... (0+ / 0-)

    that you are making a HUGE assumption that the Navy thinks that "global warming" as in "we are in great danger and we should cut back on the CO2"  - is occuring  verse yes - the ice is melting ... for whatever reason  ... and we should be prepared for that situation.

    The navy also funds programs about how to cut its gas/oil consumption --- not because of global warming --- but because of the "foreign oil" issue and the to cut costs.

  •  The biggest hypocrisy (0+ / 0-)

    comes from the oil & gas industry.

    Even as their shills are still refuting global warming on tv, they are preparing for an exploration bonanza in the Arctic as the ice melts.

  •  huh ... (0+ / 0-)

    natural variability ... Milankovitch Cycles ... having sat through a seminar by Philander and a room full of navy officers ... not sure they were convinced that global warming was a CO2 problem.

    •  some highlights.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kurt, oklacoma dem

      Records for 1961-1990 over the central Arctic Ocean, collected as part of the Russian "North Pole" drifting station program, show statistically-significant increases in temperature of 0.89 deg. C and 0.43 deg. C per decade for May and June, respectively. Temperature increases during this period are also significant for summer as a whole. A different analysis for the period 1979-1997, based on a combination of temperature data from the North Pole program, drifting buoys and land stations, reveals statistically significant trends over most of the Arctic Ocean in spring, locally exceeding 2.5 deg. C per decade. This is consistent with indications based on satellite passive microwave records of an earlier onset of spring melt over the sea ice cover and is likely also related to reductions in sea ice extent of about 3% per decade since 1979 as assessed from satellite records.

      Multiple studies, multiple indices, multiple methodologies.... consistent results.... which are significant.... we're not taking the spring thaw and saying "Gee must be global warming"

      Mything The Point © Examining the unexamined beliefs America accepts on faith value.

      by 8ackgr0und N015e on Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 09:19:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  understand ... (0+ / 0-)

        that my personal views are not the navy's ... I'm just saying that the navy most likely will not be saying ... "gosh global warming is happening ... let's reduce C02".   they are not there yet and probably will never be. They just look at the reality on the ground and take the measures to address it ... for whatever the reason is.

        •  I accept that. (0+ / 0-)

          The report explicitly states the scientific models used to project the "middle of the road estimate" that ice extent will be down 30% and volume down 40% by 2050.

          Whether that translates into the navy going "green" is a whole different issue.  If you are doubting it will, I would probably agree that is not likely to happen without serious outside pressure.  The military-industrial complex has never been known for being eco-friendly.  

          Maybe my sarcastic references to navy  as a bastion of hemp-smoking, granola-munching, tree-huggers threw you off :)

          Mything The Point © Examining the unexamined beliefs America accepts on faith value.

          by 8ackgr0und N015e on Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 09:33:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Confused (0+ / 0-)

    So I read the quite a bit of the "final report." I didn't see anywhere that they recommended a new fleet.

    They did specifically mention:

    • More ice breakers
    • A CINC responsible for the Arctic
    • Lots of capabilities to incorporate into future ships/retrofits
    • Possible use of microwave weapons (the only James Bond thing I read)
    • Lots of mundane sensor & satellite stuff

    Maybe I missed it, but it seems hard to believe that something as major as proposing an entire new fleet didn't grab my attention.

    •  I'm looking at Appendix B (0+ / 0-)

      and specifically the laundry list of scenarios.  Most of these would be occuring simultaneously.  I don't see how you would be able to handle that without a separate fleet.  Even with the focus on Russia and China, this is more than merely expanding the range of the 7th fleet.

      Mything The Point © Examining the unexamined beliefs America accepts on faith value.

      by 8ackgr0und N015e on Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 10:07:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

        I am no military expert, but those scenarios look like one-off incidents.

        1. A "right-of-transit passage." Presumedly, this wouldn't be done very often.
        1. The transit of a carrier battle group. This seems like the most challenging-- destroying a waiting Chinese nuclear sub in the Arctic. Still, this would be a one-off event of remote likelihood, only even possible two months out of the year. And the biggest hurdle here would be the capabilities of sub-hunting helicopters and their support ships.
        1. Fishing war with Russia. Show the colors and aerial surveillance.
        1. Stop a ship with WMD. Requires a sub.
        1. Drug Interdiction.
        1. A rogue nation hides a nuclear missile sub in the ice. A cruiser with missile defense capability is sent.
        1. Eco-terrorists! They're everywhere! After they execute some US hostages, this caper requires sending special forces to the Svalbard Archipelago. I think they wrote this scenario on their lunch-break.

        I was wondering how this line got through:

        With U.S. forces tied down in Persian Gulf, China seizes the opportunity position forces on disputed islands in China Sea. Hostilities escalate.

        Then I realized it was written in 2001. No way would they have written something so possible based on current conditions. Also explains the reference to "CINC" even though Rummy purged the term to protect the executive ego.

  •  Nice work (0+ / 0-)

    The Cartoon captions is excellent

    Have A Bloggy Day :)

    by eeff on Fri Dec 01, 2006 at 12:39:27 AM PST

    •  I can't claim credit for that... (0+ / 0-)

      that is an actual copy of the final slide from one of their powerpoint presentations...  I think it speaks volumes regarding the seriousness they attach to this trend.

      Mything The Point © Examining the unexamined beliefs America accepts on faith value.

      by 8ackgr0und N015e on Fri Dec 01, 2006 at 05:57:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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