Fox News poll - Dems up 13 among likely voters

In a Fox News poll that tracked voters over the weekend, Democrats lead by 49-36. So add this to the CNN poll over the weekend showing a 20 point lead. When you consider the over-sampled conservatives in the Pew poll, I'd say our prospects for tomorrow look very good. Also, the Fox News and CNN polls included the day of Saddam's sentencing. Clearly that didn't matter.

•  Thank you for this post..

  Makes me feel a lot better. Perhaps some of the other polls showing a 4%-6% lead were outliers, or maybe we got the momentum back.

  I'm predicting we will pick up 23-26 House seats and 5 senate seats.

  by joedemocrat on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:15:40 AM PDT

  •  Amen. But I'll feel a whole lot better

    when the deal goes down tomorrow.

    by bobdevo on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:17:39 AM PDT

•  I don't trust FOX

  one iota.  I think that Pew and ABC/Wa Post are much closer to reality.

  However, a 5-7 pt edge nationally tomorrow will probably mean that we narrowly picked up the House and picked up the Senate.

  by IhateBush on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:17:48 AM PDT

  •  Pew was garbage

    The Pew poll was a joke. 39-16 conservative to liberal? Not even 1994 had numbers like that. Gallup is probably right: Dems by 7.

    by Elrod on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:20:37 AM PDT

    •  That Seems Pretty Realistic to Me Too....

      In the Karl Rove era, Republican partisans WILL NOT be sitting this election out, meaning that a repeat of the nine-point GOP advantage of 1994 is unlikely to be replicated this year.  I predicted a net gain of 20 seats for the Dems in the House, and I suspect that would be about on par with what a 7-point generic advantage would produce.

      by Mark27 on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:29:04 AM PDT

  •  I agree with you. I'm paranoid at this point,

    no question about it, but it seems within the realm of possibility to me that Fox would have a poll showing Dems ahead by a boat load just in order to scare Rethug viewers and get them to the polls.

    by feelingsickinMN on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 11:20:27 AM PDT

    •  Nah

      If you saw a poll that was reversed, R 49, D 36 today, would you be (a) more enthusiastic and anxious to get out and vote tomorrow, or (b) depressed and moping, looking for solace on the blogs, contemplating your navel?

      Bad numbers do not motivate the rank and file supporters to get out and vote.

      by mengelhart on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 11:30:32 AM PDT

•  Generic ballot polls

  are useless.

  All politics are local, as a wise man once said.

  by leftilicious on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:22:58 AM PDT

  •  "All Politics Are Local"......

    ....died in 2000 when Karl Rove took the reins of power in America.  For the foreseeable future, national politics are no longer local.

    by Mark27 on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:30:26 AM PDT

  •  This one NOT generic.

    At least not fully. Fox says the 49-36 result was a response to the question of who you favor in your house district.

    Nearly half of likely voters — 49 percent — favor the Democratic candidate in their House district and 36 percent the Republican, with 15 percent still undecided in a FOX News poll conducted the final weekend before the midterm elections.

    "Supporting Bush is a minus" vs "Supporting Bush is a plus" is an even bigger gap at 39-25%.

    Finally, 33% of self-identified Republicans do not think their party deserves re-election.

    Ouch!

    We'll know tomorrow if they actually vote that way.

    by pdq on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:44:53 AM PDT

•  say "I am sorry, Senator Kerry"

  "for calling you bad names".

  At least on the basis of a single poll showing lower generic advantage.

  Kerry is a human being and we all know that artful phrasing and masterful joke delivery are not his strengths.  Moreover, GOP "outrage machine" always has something, say, "they accept money from extremist foul-mouthed bloggers".

  by Piotr on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:23:37 AM PDT

•  Already Voted

  I looked at the internals in the Fox poll and one thing really struck me.  They had a category for people they reached in the poll who had already voted.  Of those, they reported that 49% voted Democratic and only 34% GOP.  The other 18% were labeled "Other/Don't Know."  I'm assuming that the classification of "Other" means people voted split tickets (if there was both a Senate race and a House race where they were) plus a modest number of 3rd party votes.  The "Don't know" part is bizarre; of course they know who they voted for.  Some people just won't tell that to a pollster, however.

  Anyone can come up with a rationalization to say the "Don't Know" category might favor Democrats, or that it might favor Republicans.  Who knows?  The key though is that those who have already voted gave a 15% margin to the Democrats -- quite similar to the poll's 13% margin among likely voters.

  Gee, I guess people who have actually voted must be considered in the "Likely Voter" category!!!!

  by tailor324 on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:36:15 AM PDT

•  Dems win tomorrow...third party wins in 2008.

  There is a great deal of hope for a Democratic victory tomorrow in order to get some sanity and balance back into American politics.  I sure hope that happens.

  Did you know that there is a way to release the stranglehold that the two parties have on America?  Yes it's true and it is called Power to the People and it uses the power of television and the internet in order to change the face of American politics forever!  

  by Ethan of America on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:39:47 AM PDT

  •  I'm not necessarily against this

    An Edwards/Obama, Obama/Clark ticket would certainly have my support as a Dem.

    However, I'm not against a reasonable third party winnning- I think it would do wonders.  However, understand that the most likely third party victory would be some sort of Hagel/Lieberman type ticket-- not very appealing.

    by jgkojak on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:46:31 AM PDT

    •  This is a NEW way for a Third Party to Win

      This is a true "outside the box" concept.  Here's a brief summary but take a look a the Power to the People web site for more details:

      Power To The People (PTTP) is an American Idol style political reality show where 12 potential candidates will face off to compete for the presidency of the United States of America.  Each candidate will participate in a series of challenges that are representative of the monumental issues facing this country and its place in the world today. Each week there's a new challenge. Each week the viewing audience votes for who they feel faced the challenge the best. Throughout the season, candidates are voted off the show based on their votes. The goal of the show in to be the last man or woman standing....a viable candidate for President of the United States...someone who can challenge the status quo.

      by Ethan of America on Fri Nov 10, 2006 at 11:50:59 AM PDT

•  I don't know about everyone else...

  ...but I am a nervous wreck. This election is so crucial; to me it is more than anything else a test of America's INTELLIGENCE. It doesn't take much brain-power to see what the current administration has done to this country and what they will continue to do if things remain status quo. If people do not vote for change NOW, it will be too late. More of our kids will die (to say nothing of more Iraqis, but who cares about them?) while our money gets poured into the pockets of Haliburton leaving education, health care, etc. to go to the dogs.

  It's now or never, people!

  by jack rance on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 10:51:33 AM PDT

•  Gerenic

  That is what they mean by "generic."

  Since it's a national poll, they can't ask specifically about the candidates in a persons local race.

  They ask "If the election is held today, would you vote for the Republican in your district or the Democrat in your district."

  The answer becomes what is known as the "Generic" poll.

  by mikel1814 on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 11:12:54 AM PDT