In today's Washington Post Chris Cillizza takes a first look at the top ten vulnerable House seats as he sees it.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/...
According to Cillizza several of the seats we just won have a decided GOP lean and will be very endangered, other Democratic incumbents - like the two Georgia guys - benefitted from the strong national wind at their backs and might be in real trouble in '08.
On the other hand Cillizza sees several Republican incumbents barely squeaking by in 2006 and expects them to face well-financed and serious cchallengers in 2008.
You'll find the complete list and his analysis bellow the fold
Arizona's 1st District (R): Rep. Rick Renzi (R) beat unsung challenger Ellen Simon (D) 52 percent to 43 percent in this massive district that takes in portions of central and eastern Arizona. But at the end of the campaign Renzi was battling allegations of wrongdoing in a land deal. The matter is still under investigation by federal authorities and could well haunt Renzi well into the new cycle. By the numbers, this should be a good target for Democrats -- 41 percent of registered voters in the district are Democrats, 33 percent are Republicans and 26 percent are independents. But the size of the district makes it difficult for a challenger to raise his or her profile among voters. Democrats have fielded flawed candidates against Renzi in each of his three races; don't expect them to commit that error again.
California's 11th District (D): Jerry McNerney (D) wasn't supposed to win the Democratic primary this year, much less the general election. McNerney beat Steve Filson, who had the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in the primary and took advantage of ethical questions surrounding Rep. Richard Pombo (R) to topple the incumbent 53 percent to 47 percent. With Pombo gone, it remains to be seen whether McNerney, who is to the ideological left of a district that gave Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, can prove his own mettle and win an election likely to be a referendum on his first two years in office. Pombo has not ruled out another bid. State Assemblymen Greg Aghazarian and Guy Houston are also mentioned on the Republican side.
Florida's 13th District (R): While banker Christine Jennings (D) continues to contest the results of last month's vote, auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) has been declared the winner by 369 votes. If that result holds, Buchanan will almost certainly face a serious challenge in 2008 -- potentially from Jennings. The Sarasota-area district should favor Republicans -- President Bush carried it 56 percent to 43 percent in 2004 -- but former Rep. Katherine Harris (R) never performed up to expectations and this year's race was extremely close. Buchanan has considerable personal wealth, which may help scare off a top-tier challenger. But given the importance of Florida in the 2008 presidential election, Democrats seem likely to play heavily in this seat.
Florida's 16th District (D): Democrat Tim Mahoney's victory on Nov. 7 was much more narrow (49 percent to 48 percent) than expected against state Rep. Joe Negron, the GOP stand-in for the disgraced Rep. Mark Foley (R). The Foley scandal made this a late-breaking opportunity for Democrats and, despite a heavy investment from the National Republican Congressional Committee, Republicans couldn't erase the taint and hold the seat. But with Foley likely to be a distant memory in voters' minds by 2008 and Negron already looking ready for a rematch, it could be very tough sledding for Mahoney. The district was carried by President Bush 54 percent to 46 percent in 2004 and clearly likes voting Republican -- as evidenced by Negron's near victory.
Georgia's 8th District (D): Despite assertions from Democratic strategists that Rep. Jim Marshall (D) was in solid shape heading into Election Day, he emerged this year with an extremely narrow 1,700-vote margin over former Rep. Mac Collins (R). The district was redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature prior to the 2006 election to favor a GOP candidate. If Marshall seeks another term, he is sure to face a serious challenge, as this district will likely perform even more strongly in a presidential cycle. Marshall is also talked about as a candidate against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R); if the seat is open it will be a major pick-up chance for Republicans.
Kansas's 2nd District (D): No result was more shocking than Nancy Boyda's (D) 51 percent to 47 percent win over Rep. Jim Ryun (R) in this eastern Kansas district that includes Topeka and Manhattan (home of Kansas State University). The ongoing fight between moderates and conservatives in Kansas's Republican Party likely cost Ryun the seat -- Boyda was able to co-opt the political center from Ryun who was seen as too conservative by some in the state. But now Boyda must win reelection in 2008 in a district that Bush carried by 20 points in 2004. She should draw some optimism from the example sent by Rep. Dennis Moore (D), who has held the state's Republican-leaning 3rd District since 1998 and seems to have fallen off the GOP target list.
North Carolina's 8th District (R): For several cycles, Democrats spent hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to unseat Rep. Robin Hayes (R). Who would have thought that Larry Kissell (D), who was almost entirely ignored by national Democrats, would come within 329 votes of ousting the incumbent? Kissell conceded the race to Hayes earlier this week but immediately announced that he will run again in 2008. While Kissell will surely have more money this time around (he raised $450,000 for the 2006 race), Hayes will also be paying much closer attention. The central North Carolina district has a Republican lean; Bush won here by nine points in 2004.
Ohio's 2nd District (R): Yes, we know that this suburban Cincinnati district went for Bush by 28 points in 2004 and should be an easy hold for Republicans. But in back-to-back elections Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) has underperformed, saved only by the prohibitive cost of advertising in the Cincinnati media market. After narrowly defeated Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett in an August 2005 special election, Schmidt struggled against a little-known opponent named Victoria Wulsin (D) earlier this month. Wulsin conceded Wednesday after a counting of provisional ballots showed her 2,500 votes behind Schmidt. She has said she is interested in running again but is also being mentioned for a slot in Gov.-elect Ted Strickland's (D) cabinet. If a Democrat can raise enough money to go on Cincinnati television, Schmidt could be in real trouble.
Ohio's 18th District (D): When seeking to replace a scandal-scarred incumbent on the ballot, it's best not to choose someone with personal bankruptcy problems. Republicans learned this the hard way on Nov. 7 when state Sen. Joy Padgett (R) lost by 24 points to attorney Zack Space (D). Space's big win masks the inherent Republican nature of the 18th District, which gave Bush by 57 percent of its vote in 2004. With memories of the ethically challenged Bob Ney long gone by 2008, the district's GOP nature should reemerge. State Sen. Jay Hottinger (R) appears to be the preferred candidate.
Texas's 22nd District (D): Much like Florida's 16th and Ohio's 18th, Democrats were able to win this strongly GOP seat thanks to the ethical transgressions of its outgoing Republican officeholder. Former Rep. Tom DeLay's (R) resignation seemed to seal this seat for Republicans, but the party's inability to remove his name from the ballot forced a write-in candidacy by Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs against Democrat (and former congressman) Nick Lampson. Texas is Republican country, however, and President Bush carried this district by 22 points in 2004. Republicans would be wise to avoid a costly and divisive primary, but even if they don't this will be a top target. Sekula-Gibbs, Sugarland Mayor David Wallace and Harris Co. Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt are all mentioned on the GOP side.
Of course, other seats on both sides might be vulerable too! We saw many second tier and even some third tier or even some no tier races suddenly blink on the radar.
But what's interesting is which races didn't make the top ten cut... for instance KY-3, MN-1, NM-1, NH-1, NH-2, NY-20, PA-6, PA-7, PA-10, WI-8