I haven't seen one of these posted in awhile, so I just thought I'd pitch in and see if I can get some thought going.
Over the fold you will find my preliminary predictions of how the electoral college shakes out in 2008. Hint: It's good for the Dems!
Down we go...
Thanks to http://www.270towin.com/ for its interactive map.
All predictions are based on previous presidential elections, the 2006 elections, trend information, and my personal bias.
Democrat safe 220. Republican safe 148. Leaning/Undecided 170
Democratic Safe: (17 states, 220 EVs)
Hawaii
California
Washington
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
D.C.
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
Republican Safe: (18 states, 148 EVs)
Alaska
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Utah
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Indiana
Kentucky
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
That leaves 15 states, and 170 EVs. Here are a few Leaning each way
Leaning Republican: (6 states, 52 EVs)
Virginia
Lousiana
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Nevada
Leaning Democratic: (3 states, 33 EVs)
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
That makes the tally Democrat 253, Republican 200.
This leaves 7 states, and 85 EVs.
Iowa
Missouri
Tennessee
Florida
Ohio
West Virginia
New Hampshire
Let's review each state (please feel free to chip in, and if I like what you say, I'll edit the post and cite you!)
Iowa
Barely went for Bush in 2004. Voted for Dukakis in 1988, showing a willingness to vote Democrat whoever it is. With Tom Vilsack running, this election could reinvigorate the Iowa Democratic Party, and with the major Republicans from either Arizona or the Northeast, a Midwestern or Southern moderate Democrat could take the state (Not Hillary, Kerry, or Dean)
Missouri
Missouri has voted with the winner for more than 4 decades, like Tennessee. Recent success in the state, i.e. Claire McCaskill defeating Jim Talent bodes well for the Democratic Party, but without a strong moderate candidate, Missouri will probably go against its streak and vote Republican.
Tennessee
Same basic forecast as Missouri, but Ford's near-upset in fact should foreshadow a swing to the Democrat side in 2008. In addition, if Gore successfully revives his political life, the state would go with their son.
Florida
Ah Florida. To quote Bruno Gianelli of the West Wing, "the swingy-est of swing states." Overshadowed by Ohio in 2004, and by other races in 2006, I have not seen anything that foretells a massive shift towards the Democrats in 2008. Perhaps a moderate non-Northeastern candidate can win back the state, especially since it voted GORE IN 2000.
Ohio
Along with Missouri and Tennessee, Ohio has voted with the winner for more than 4 decades. After large gains in 2006 congressional races, and a razor-thin election in 2004, Ohio is ripe for the picking. A moderate Dem coupled with a staunch conservate Repug can put Ohio on the Democratic side, but it will be contested down to the wire.
West Virginia
Overshadowed by other states in the swing state talk, West Virginia is close in every election. It voted for Dukakis in 1988, and all it needs is a Sun-belt moderate to push it back in the Dem fold. But, because it is overshadowed, I predict it will be a relatively easy Republican win in 2008.
New Hampshire
Very close in both 2000 and 2004, Again, a state where a moderate Democrat would play extremely well. Paul Hodes victory there in 2006 bodes well for 2008. (I would have typed more, but I'm getting tired)
SO, after all this, what are we left with. The Democrats have a huge opportunity to win more Electoral Votes than either Bush victory. Any candidate virtually has 253 EVs already sewn up. Ohio or Florida would push it above 270. Different collections of the other states would do the same.
A Moderate Democrat could secure all of those undecided states. For the first time, Republicans could well be running a Northeasterner, Guiliani Pataki Romney, and the Democrats need to capitalize and run a Clintonian Sun-belter.
But rather than pose political questions and go off on an anti-Hilary tangent, I'll just stop this adventure now.
One last note: In 2004, Kerry won 1 out of those 7 swing states. In 2000, Gore won 1 out of 7. We don't need all of them, we need 2, 3 tops.