Skip to main content

Many colonial wars end badly.   Here are a few bad endings:

1) Columns of retreating colonial forces cut to pieces by vengeful locals. examples: first Afghan War.   Napoleon's retreat from Moscow. 6th Army in Stalingrad.  

2) Colonial army trapped in garrison and slaughtered or surrender.  examples:  Dien Bien Phu. Khartoum.  Al Kut.  

3) strong Colonial army assault  a local stronghold and are bloodily defeated.  examples: Teutoberg Forest.   Battle of New Orleans.  The shocked imperial power settles for a defeat.

what then will happen in Iraq as the US is finally defeated as now seems probable?

Because the US has massive airpower, a retreating army could get out without being slaughtered or forced into a humiating surrender.  The perimeter of any isolated  garrison could be defended as well.  Airpower scatters the forces that could concentrate to overrun a US base.  

   Case three is the most likely outcome.  The intransigent nature of the Bush admin will I think, demand one last set piece battle in Iraq.   Some proof that the US remains master of the field of battle in the conventional sense.  A victory to have before the negotiated end, one last gamble.  A single city to be beseiged and obliterated.    I think the US will be bloodily repulsed when this battle occurs.   The Iraqis will dig in and show what they are capable of and the US will bow and exit.

Case three has arguably happened already.  Iraq bore the full brunt of the US Army in a set piece assault and has amazingly continued fighting longer than Germany and  Japan  in WW2.     But Bush will require one last show of phoney dominance before the war is finally settled.  A section of Sadr city or a small Suni city around baghdad will be singled out and the end game will play itself out.  

Originally posted to Salo on Fri Dec 01, 2006 at 06:34 PM PST.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

    very interesting dairy. I hope Bush, Cheney, Rumesfeld, and Rice pay for this.

  •  what I'm afraid of is that before we leave Iraq, (0+ / 0-)

    as we inevitably shall sooner or later, we'll stain ourselves with a couple of real massacres (easy to do almost without thinking, from the air), just out of spite - it would be very Bushian

    we're shocked by a naked nipple, but not by naked aggression

    by Lepanto on Fri Dec 01, 2006 at 11:01:23 PM PST

  •  Haven't given much thought to this... (0+ / 0-)

    But your description is probably solid.  Bush won't give up without a fight, and remember Nixon said we would leave VIet Nam "Like a cowboy out of the saloon, with both guns blazing..."  Of course it didn't turn out that way, but I think that is how Bush sees it.  So, the only questions is who is going to get it?  Somehow, I don't think it will be the Sunnis.  My bet is on Sadr city.  Maybe try to take out Moqtada as a two-fer.  God help us...

    "Truth, justice and the American way."

    by Sourmash on Sat Dec 02, 2006 at 12:40:05 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site