OK, most are locals, either insurgents wanting to frighten foreigners so that contractors will leave and US allies will withdraw, or just thugs wanting to make money by kidnapping Iraqis and foreigners. Yet a few recent cases may point to another shadowy force.
Please consider the case of the Italian women and 2 Iraqi co-workers, kidnapped in their office in the middle of Baghdad. All Italy is shocked and eventually the inept govt of Berlusconi even decided to be active, for once (the last time, the kidnappers ended up killing the Italian hostage).
As usual, Al-Zarqawi is blamed, or some Baathist guerrilla group. Fine, but if we consider who would benefit the most by kidnapping pacifist Italian activists, coming from a heavily anti-war country,
this article from the Guardian is mightily interesting:
The attackers were armed with AK-47s, shotguns, pistols with silencers and stun guns - hardly the mujahideen's standard-issue rusty Kalashnikovs. Strangest of all is this detail: witnesses said that several attackers wore Iraqi National Guard uniforms and identified themselves as working for Ayad Allawi, the interim prime minister.
Another unusual affair involves 2 French journalists, abducted last month with their Syrian driver; both visited Iraq quite regularly in the past years, so they're no newbies. No one really knows where, how and by whom they were kidnapped, so there are a few videos and messages released since then. French foreign minister toured the region with French Muslim leaders, to gather as much support as possible. After a few good feelings, things seem to drag. This latest news is of particular interest, though:
"We are under the impression that the American forces do not want the hostages to be freed because each time we get near a solution, these forces push for a military escalation," said Mohammed Ayash al-Kubaisi, the group's representative abroad. "We believe these forces have political aims, seeking to create a chaotic situation which does not contribute to progress,"
I suppose it would be particularly distasteful and anti-American (or maybe anti-Iraqi) from me to connect the dot with the following declarations by Iraqi "PM" Iyad Allawi:
"Chirac, who wants to present himself as fair, must take his share of responsibility for the kidnapping of his two compatriots as he opposed all international resolutions aimed at restoring Iraqi's security,"
Last but not least, let's look at the various protests against these abductions:
The Guardian about the Italian women:
In the eight days since their abduction, pleas for their release have crossed all geographical, religious and cultural lines. The Palestinian group Islamic Jihad, Hizbullah, the International Association of Islamic Scholars and several Iraqi resistance groups have all voiced outrage. A resistance group in Falluja said the kidnap suggests collaboration with foreign forces. Yet some voices are conspicuous by their absence: the White House and the office of Allawi. Neither has said a word.
And concerning the 2 French journalists, you can basically put the same: Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Hizbullah, Iraqi Ulema's Council, Moqtada al-Sadr himself.
Basically, both Shiite and Sunni groups labelled "terrorists" - some being actually or having actully been terrorists, now or in the past. If it's Zarqawi or Al-Qaeda, they really like to paint themselves into a corner.
Well, if I may try my tin-foil hat, let me see. If the hostages are killed, with mandatory gruesome video, who may benefit the more? At worst, it'll punish the French and all the anti-war by killing a few of them and showing they're unable to save their own from the Iraqi mess. Having the anti-war NGOs leaving Iraq and weakening Chirac domestically will already be a good move for, well, for whom? Allawi? The neo-con cabal? "Anti-Iraqi" Baathist insurgents? Halliburton? Moqtada al-Sadr? The UN? Of course, if it works well and is well played by compliant media (notably the Berlsuconi 100% controlled Italian TV), this will anger Europeans and may either desensitivise them to the fate of the Iraqis, or may just convince many of them that these are all blood-thirsty ragheads and that flattening Fallujah isn't so bad an idea. Not that I really expect that to happen, but if these recent kidnappings are not done by the resistance but are covert operations, that may well be the reasoning behind them. In fact, I suppose that if these hostages are killed, Bush and Berlusconi will be blamed just as much as the cold-blooded killers. But that doesn't mean I have high hopes they'll all be liberated safely.
Basically, I'm just asking questions and seeing odd patterns in the dots.