Yesterday I posted a diary outlining all the House seats we lost in the 2006 election by ten or fewer points. There are two sides of the coin, and the other side is playing defense.
There weren't as many close Democratic seats in the 2006 election, but nobody knows if 2008 will be as favorable an environment as 2006. Many of these seats will be familiar to a lot of folks here as Democratic pickups, but these are Dem seats in tough territory we need to hold to keep our majority strong.
Below the flap are all the seats we held by 10% or less or won by 6% or less, including a few others I feel could be competitive:
AZ-5: Arizona State Senator Harry Mitchell knocked off blowhard JD Hayworth 51-46. Hayworth is the kind of guy who may take another shot at Mitchell, and could be carried if McCain is heading the Repub ticket. That being said, Mitchell is a wily campaigner and very tough to knock off once he becomes the incumbent. First-tier defense.
CA-11: Wind engineer Jerry McNerney pulled off a huge victory and became the only challenger to win a seat in California. He knocked off the environmentally unfriendly Richard Pombo 53-47. Pombo may want his old seat back, but McNerney showed his strength on the campaign trail in 2006 and won't be easy to knock off as the incumbent. First-tier defense.
CT-2: This was the closest House race in the country. Joe Courtney defeated a tough Republican incumbent, Rob Simmons, by fewer than one hundred votes. If Simmons does not decide to go for a rematch, this one may go off the table because it has a +8 PVI in our favor. First-tier defense if Simmons runs again, third-tier if he doesn't.
FL-16: Joe Negron/Foley almost defeated Tim Mahoney despite the page scandal. Mahoney eeked out a victory of about 4,400 votes, and will be heavily targeted again in '08. Negron will without question take another shot at this because he came so close this time, and Mahoney will have to be on his toes to keep the seat. First-tier defense.
FL-22: Although Ron Klein defeated Clay Shaw by only four (51-47), he beat the man who people thought could not be beat. This is a second-tier race for the Repubs in 2008 as Klein joins Wexler, Wasserman-Schultz and Meek in the strong Miami delegation in Congress. It will take a very powerful Republican candidate to give Klein a tough race in '08. Second-tier defense, at best.
GA-8: We had a heck of a time keeping this seat, as well as GA-12. The big blue wave didn't seem to wash away Georgia's scarlet-red hue, as incumbent Jim Marshall fought for his political life and kept it with a 51-49 win over former Repub House Rep. Mac Collins. Even if it's not Collins v. Marshall in '08, this is going to be a challenge to hold in a presidential year. First-tier defense.
GA-12: This was the closest Democratic defense in the country in 2006, as John Barrow pulled off the goal-line stand to ward off former Repub House Rep. Max Burns by less than a thousand votes. Again, even if it's not Burns on the Repub side, it'll be a challenge to hold this one. First-tier defense.
IL-8: Although incumbent Melissa Bean beat banker John McSweeney by seven, Bean is always going to have to fight hard to keep her seat. This is essentially Donald Rumsfeld's old district, and McSweeney wasn't a strong candidate. First-tier defense.
IN-7: This seat ought to be an easy Dem hold as it's downtown Indianapolis, but Julia Carson's health almost cost us the seat. If Carson retires, it's not on the table, but if she runs again in 2008, it's a first-tier defense.
IN-9: Will we see Hill-Sodrel IV? Sodrel will say, "I will crush you", but Baron "Rocky" Hill has other plans. Hill IMO was the natural congressman for this seat, and will hold it until another 1994-type year comes up for the Repubs. Second-tier defense, maybe first-tier if Hillary tops the ticket.
IA-2: Dave Loebsack pulled off one of the greatest upsets in twenty years by beating Iowa institution Jim Leach 51-49. Leach running again would make this an instant top-tier race, but without him, this is the most Democratic seat in Iowa (Cedar Rapids & Iowa City), and Loebsack will hold it for a while. First-tier with Leach, third-tier at best without Leach.
IA-3: Leonard Boswell held off a strong challenge from Jeff "Dave" Lamberti. This is similar to the Carson situation, as Boswell's health is a serious question mark. That being said, Des Moines is pretty Democratic, and it'll be hard to overcome the natural leanings of the district. Second-tier defense, but first-tier if Boswell runs again.
KS-2: This a naturally a conservative seat, so Nancy Boyda may need to vote with the Republicans a couple of times to throw them a bone. That being said, Boyda is a character, and in two years, I guarantee she's known by more people than just her constituents in the Kansas prairies. She'll be tough to knock off, just like Gov. Sebelius. First-tier defense with Ryun running, second-tier at best without him.
KY-3: Many believe John Yarmuth is too liberal for his constituency in Louisville, but if you beat an incumbent as powerful as Anne Northup, you get street cred. This is a third-tier defense; IMO Northup is not going for her old seat, but for the gubernatorial mansion against Fletcher in a Repub primary or the Senate seat in 2010 when Bunning goes bye-bye.
LA-2: Charlie Melancon won by fifteen against a highly-funded Repub opponent in a Deep South state. This is at best a second-tier defense.
MN-1: Just like CA-11 and KY-3, you get street cred from me after knocking off a very strong incumbent. Tim Walz has that, and I can see him running for higher office than this after a few terms. He fits this district perfectly. Second-tier defense with Gutknecht running, third-tier at best without Gutknecht.
NH-1: This was the grassroots story of 2006. Carol-Shea Porter defeated NH Democratic House leader Jim Craig and Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley and only spent $200,000 in the process. A Bradley rematch would be very exciting, otherwise Shea-Porter keeps this seat as long as she wants. First-tier defense with Bradley, not on the table without him.
NY-19: I live right next door to this district and I can tell you, unless a powerful Repub incumbent comes along with Giuliani on the Repub ticket, Hall is pretty safe due to his stance on Indian Point. Third-tier defense.
NY-20: Although Kirsten Gillibrand defeated John Sweeney by six (53-47), she's going to be hounded. Sweeney's various scandals caused him to lose, and a strong Repub candidate will give Kirsten serious trouble. Gillibrand will have the advantage of incumbency, but this is a district where registered Repubs outnumber Dems by 90,000. First-tier defense.
NY-24: Arcuri is relatively safe, case closed. Third-tier defense.
NC-11: Heath Shuler fits this center-right district very well, and I can't see him getting knocked off unless he votes for any kind of free-trade deal. Second-tier defense at best.
OH-18: The only reason I'm putting this on here is because it's a presidential year. Space is stronger than a lot of people are giving him credit for. They'll go after him hard, but he didn't get elected with 62% because people hated his party. This is a little different from the Negron/Mahoney situation in Florida. Second-tier defense.
PA-4: Jason Altmire pulled a shocker on Melissa Hart in this suburban Pittsburgh district. Hart may make another go at it, but Altmire gets the "street cred" label from me for knocking off an incumbent many thought would make a run at the Senate in 2010. This seat is a natural fit for a moderate Dem like Altmire. Second-tier defense.
PA-7: Nobody's going to have the cajones to take on a vice-admiral. Third-tier defense, at best.
PA-8: Patrick Murphy is a rising star in the Democratic Party. Mike Fitzpatrick, were he to run again, may give him a real tough run in a true swing district. First-tier defense with Fitzpatrick, second-tier otherwise.
PA-10: This is an ultraconservative district, but Chris Carney is another good candidate who will have the advantage of incumbency. That being said, any breathing Republican other than Sherwood would have a shot here, due to the nature of the district. First-tier defense.
SC-5: Unless John Spratt retires, this is a second-tier race. He's very popular in his district, even though it is trending Republican. First-tier defense without Spratt, second-tier with him.
TX-17: Without a very strong Republican challenger, Chet Edwards holds the district where President Bush resides. Second-tier defense.
TX-22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs got 42% as a write-in candidate. Nick Lampson will actually face a Republican on the ballot this time. This one is by far our toughest hold in 2008 (JMHO). First-tier defense.