Note: These feature only gubernatorial races which I see as highly competitive and which I expect will be easiest to pick up.
NEW YORK: Spitzer (D) 44, Pataki (R-inc.) 41
Pataki's in a hell of a position. If he runs, he'll lose to Spitzer and therefore lose any prospects of a presidential run in 2008. If he doesn't run, the GOP has no hope of keeping the governor's mansion either (since Giuliani seems unlikely to run). No matter what happens, it looks right now like Eliot Spitzer will be the next Governor of New York.
MARYLAND: O'Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R-inc.) 44
Against O'Malley, Ehrlich will lose badly. Against Doug Duncan, he will probably lose, but by a smaller margin. If he leaves, the GOP has no chance of keeping this mansion. One way or another, this and New York are turning blue (which is more fitting anyway).
GEORGIA: Perdue (R-inc.) 41, Cox (D) 41
For being the first Republican to run Georgia in 130 years, Perdue doesn't seem very popular. He came into office in a year when two statewide Democrats (Sen. Cleland and Gov. Barnes) unexpectedly lost reelection, and Georgia was declared a red state. But Cox is probably the most popular Democrat in the Peach State, having won 146 of 159 counties in 2002. And if I were Perdue, seeing only 41% support with 18% still undecided, I'd be worried right now. Everybody, no matter what you may feel about Cathy Cox, she does seem more likely to win than Mark Taylor (he polls 3 points below Perdue, 41-44), and she may be the only one who can make Georgia a swing state again.
CONNECTICUT: Rell (R-inc.) 45, Dodd (D) 43
For a new governor with an 80% approval rating, this is an awful poll position. She leads Dodd by only 2 points now, with 12% undecided and almost another two years to screw up the state's budget, etc. By this time next year, expect Rell to be polling below Dodd (and Blumenthal).
I don't have poll numbers for Colorado, Florida, or Ohio, other very high-profile races. Do you think Blackwell will still get the GOP nomination (in Ohio) after today?