I realize the passing of Turkmenbashi has been addressed in a few diaries, and I hope I'm not violating the rules here. But this issue is, potentially, of monumental importance--and while the general media outlets have done an ok job summing up the basics (rarely on page 1 or 2)--the crackpot authoritarian style regime, questions of succession, and the very noteworthy fact that there is some natural gas in Turkmenistan--they, like much of their readership, really aren't fully aware of the implications. Give them time, and when they see that US interests--for good or ill--have something to do with the situation, the media will have a bit more to say about Turkmenistan. Cynical, of course--but true--whether or not there's a political axe to grind.
So while waiting for them, I'll offer a bit of perspective...read on...
Quick bit about me--I'm a postgraduate student researching the archaeology of Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan, it seems, is the new "Fifth Center of World Civilization"--according to the much heralded findings of an international conference in the Karakum desert only a month ago.
Whether or not this is true can be discussed at length somewhere else. For Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan's millennia-old role on the world stage was one of the primary keys to the establishment and maintenance of his personality cult--a cult that radiated beyond the megalomania of Niyazov, and indeed deified the leader to much of the population. Niyazov--Turkmenbashi--Leader of the Turkmens--whose glorious golden likeness atop the Arch of Neutrality signalled the Turkmen-ness of the Turkmens. Turkmenbashi--whose penned works (the Rukhnama)--told of the Turkmen people, their story, their philosophy, their heritage. Turkmenbashi--whose greatness and magnanimity as last in a succession of great Sultans provided free gas for all, handed out $100 bills to children in the streets, and hosted enormous outdoor banquets of the freshest fruits and vegetables on the streets of Ashgabad.
Indeed, Niyazov himself acknowledged the excesses of his monuments and self glorification projects. Too much, he said, but the good people demanded it of me. How could I say no?
Turkmenbashi--self-styled demigod, leader, and friend.
Now hop a flight to the west, if you will, and you'll see a different Turkmenbashi--a ridiculous, foolish, comic genius. Look at all the fountains! The statues! The ice rink! The desert pyramids! To most western media, the regime of Saparmurat Niyazov was a power circus--a silly regime run by a mad, yet oddly creative, authoritarian nutcase.
Note this link to World of Turkmenbashi Tales, a 55 ride amusement park opened a few months ago.
FUN!!!
And now, the show's over. Lights out--grab the kids, finish the popcorn and go home.
And that's just what most of our media does. Safer, easier and more marketable. Here's a notable exception--the NYTimes does an excellent job of capturing the dark side of the comedy here.
So, yes, Niyazov was a bit of a card.
He also was the absolute iron-fisted tyrant whose thirst for self glorification almost singlehandedly ran the country into the ground. Hospitals were closed while monuments were built; once viable post-Soviet schools were cut down to 9 year programs that taught little beyond the Rukhnama; billions of dollars in potential revenue from natural gas exports appear to have vanished, presumably stored in illicit accounts around the globe; the MAXIMUM wage for certain public sector jobs is set to roughly $36 per month.
I won't delve much more into Niyazov's ruling style--but I will say a bit about what I know so far regarding succession. This isn't really any different from stories in the international press, who seem to have their ducks in a row on the basics.
There is, supposedly, a Constitution in which the rules for power succession are delineated. How this actually plays in a "Presidency For Life" style government is unclear, and apparently it may not come into play at all. The constitution states that the leader of parliament assumes power upon the death of the leader. The current acting president, one
Berdymuhamedov, is NOT the head of parliament, but Niyazov's close confidante and his deputy prime minister. So what happened to the other guy--the constitutionally defined leader? Apparently he's under investigation by a criminal probe, and relieved of his duties as head of parliament as of a couple days ago.
Hm. Now, that's one key succession issue--although there are other players--
- Turkmenbashi's playboy son--who knows nothing of politics beyond drinking and womanizing (ok, fine, so he fits the bill)
- Turkmenbashi's daughter, living abroad, and the rumored manager of 'Bashi's international finances. Billions in gas revenue, anyone?
- A military official, a close confidante of 'Bashi and the new "acting president"--as I understand it, he is also responsible for T-Bashi's funeral arrangements--which, in this case, = power.
Who wins? Anyone? No one? We don' t know.
Now, there's also speculation that Niyazov's death actually occurred several days ago, but remained unreported by a panic-stricken government. An official on his way out of the country was summarily arrested and jailed on presumably trumped up charges. In any case, the speculation is that he may have been locked up in order to prevent non-sanctioned information from getting outside the country.
And news getting out is apparently not half as dangerous as news getting in--the disorganized (and exiled) Turkmen opposition is clamoring to get back into the country, and at least one plane almost entirely loaded with opposition members has already been turned back under the threat of being shot down (see title). Now, even if the opposition gets into the country, it's extremely unclear what they might do--or what power they might have.
But all of this wrangling and intrigue seems to clearly illustrate one thing:
There IS some dark machinery at work--and the wheels of Turkmenbashi seem to be turning in his absence (probably the same wheels that cause that damn statue to rotate so that it always faces the sun).
Notwithstanding some of the speculation on some of the key Central Asian sites such as www.registan.net or www.eurasianet.org that the Acting President Berdymukhamedov looks a hell of a lot like Turkmenbashi and may well be his illegitamate son, it DOES seem as if this Berdy character is making a clear-cut power grab, and the supposed emergency convening of parliament on December 26 may do none other than confirm him as the new President for Life. Berdybashi? Turkmenberdy? Or simply Turkmenbashi, the second, the latest incaranation in a thousand-year succession of great Turkmen sultans?
I'd be very interested to hear from folks from Turkmenistan or the rest of C. Asia to hear thoughts on all the speculation...
But the big question--the one that the media may start to get a grip on a few weeks down the road, is simply What does this all mean??? Vladimir Putin would certainly love to know--Kremlin-owned GazProm controlls all the natural gas pipelines out of Turkmenistan. Two very interesting articles discuss the nature of Russian gas contracts with Turkmenistan, and debate their possible futures.
Of course, Bush (Cheney) will be paying closer attention than they may be letting on--there is so much natural gas in Turkmenistan that its citizens don't pay a manat for it. The "No Blood For Oil" group often raised the notion of a pie-in-the-sky Trans Caspian Pipeline as the root cause for the US invasion of Afghanistan. I'm not convinced of that, but the notion may be raised now--especially with US-Russian relations cooling. A US/EU agreement with a friendly Turkmen government to pipe Turkmen gas under the Caspian could undercut Gazprom's oil monopoly, cut western gas prices and secure a somewhat decent relationship with a secular Muslim state. (YES, I am aware of the bitterness and rancor of the past 6.5 years with respect to American foreign policy--and YES I am against nearly all of it, but my point here is not to be political, but to sum up, very simply, some points of view)
Ah yes...Muslims. It won't just be the Cold War gamers paying attention here. But the spectre of radical Islam is perhaps not what it is elsewhere. Iran may want to play a role, but the nature of Islam in turkmenistan--influenced by secular or mystical trends--Communism, Sufism, tribalism, indicate that the country may not prove an accessible haven for Khameini and Ahmadinejad's style of radical Shiism. Turkey is the major player here; there have been some fairly hard-core Islamic (Turkmen-Turk) schools opened in the country. But Taliban-style Sunni Islam has had no foothold under the authoritarian rule of Niyazov. Afghanistan--well, the border is pretty much desert, and while some "poppy-products" get through, it is not my impression that this is a direct major corridor for Islamic influence.
Uzbekistan has had its share of problems, kept out of Turkmenistan thanks in large part to a dictatorship that tolerated NO opposition. So all remains to be seen.
Again, What Does This All Mean?
It means stay tuned. Turkmenistan may no longer be the quiet desert nation with the population the size of Maryland and a wacky ruler, but a major player in international affairs--or, if not a player, certainly a playground.
So the Great Game continues. But for this round, it looks like the first move goes to the Turkmens.