A recent diary by DemFromCT focused on seasonal patterns in the H5N1 virus, including links to the CDC Flu Wiki.
I have long sensed that pandemic planning advice was mostly flying beneath the radar—i.e., it is deliberately not being highlighted by the government. There are clues that can be spotted. This article by Sandy Bergo (Center for Public Integrity) on an unrelated subject is typical--there's pandemic information there if you read between the lines:
His firm does better financially as a government contractor. For example, it won a $1.5 million job handling the logistics for 55 pandemic flu summits around the country from January through August 2006.
The government's pandemic website has a wealth of information, but they are not encouraging people to look at it or take action.
For example, this page has extensive pandemic planning information for businesses. But I haven’t heard anyone in my area advising businesses to plan for a pandemic, even though such planning is strongly recommended if you bother to read what the website actually says.
The DHS pendemic flu guide is long and bureaucratic, but check out the 13 Critical Infrastructure areas on p.11 (banking, water, postal and shipping, transportation, energy, telecommunications, etc.).
From the guide's advice to businesses on pp.18-19:
- Dramatic worker absenteeism (40 percent or more) will occur at all levels due to illness, family member care, death, childcare, and "worried well" (otherwise healthy people who avoid the workplace for fear of exposure).
- Pandemic disease spread will be rapid and unpredictable, likely precluding shifting personnel, resources, and emergency operations centers to "safe" areas.
- Movement restrictions and/or quarantines will disrupt the supply chains and municipal services.
- Social distancing requirements will affect business operations, especially when public contact is unavoidable (e.g., retail food) or workers share a common workspace (e.g., plants).
- Business closures and furloughs for prolonged periods may cause extensive financial harm or even ruin [!!!], increasing demand for social and welfare support.
- Lost income and competition for remaining skilled workers and scarce supplies and materials will dramatically affect business response and recovery.
- Reduced worker availability among first responders may result in greater risk of social and security disruptions.
- Disruptions and failures at essential businesses will cause localized economic and social challenges [!!!] and may affect other businesses in the sector, region, and, perhaps, the nation.
"localized economic and social challenges" that might affect "the sector, region, and, perhaps, the nation". Is this an understatement, or what?! We're talking interruptions to food and energy supply, and economic and societal breakdown--but it's put in nice polite language so nobody will get upset.
One of the most chilling recommendations (from the government's official planning checklist for individuals and families) specifically recommends having a manual can opener. Think about that for a minute. Read between the lines.
Public health and government officials know the potential is serious and they say so. But because no one can predict the timing of viral mutations for rapid human-to-human transmission, the planning advice which could make a difference is flying beneath the radar. As a result the advice is largely being ignored.
A closing thought, from Perelandra’s website:
Currently the virus is not jumping easily from birds to humans. However, each incident of human infection gives H5N1 that much more practice in making this leap. The death rate from H5N1 is around 58%. (Spanish Flu death rate was 2.5%, killing 50 million people globally.)
My Xmas present to the Kossack community is a reminder to prepare. Nothing might happen for another year or two. But due to international travel and the several-day incubation period it's been estimated that a pandemic virus could spread worldwide in 2-3 days. At that point it will be impossible to contain and too late to prepare.
New Year's Resolution, anyone?