Today a study was released by the National Academy of Science that spells out in explicit terms that Iran's oil profits could disappear by 2015. In FIVE years the income will be halved. The current profit is $50 billion, but it is decreasing by at least 10% per year.
Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, suggested in the report that if the U.S. held off on its saber-rattling for a few years, we could see a much more conciliatory energy-starved Iran, willing to negotiate.
But really? Follow me after the fold....
in the report, Stern acknowledges that the collapse of oil revenue could cause "instability" in Iran. He believes this will lead to the rise of moderate factions willing to talk with the U.S. to secure energy resources.
This is wrong. It could be true if Iran were Venezuela. But unlike Venezuela, Iran is north and east of the largest oil fields in the world. Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Gulf States, along with the Gulf itself all lie within Iran's reach.
What's to stop them from grabbing it?
Let's go clockwise-
the -stans to the north of Iran would just as likely side with Iran as they would not care, because Iran is much closer to them than the U.S. is.
Afghanistan- destroyed by internal civil war, and with no military besides foreign forces to speak of, Iran does not need to worry about its northern border.
Pakistan- wouldn't honor any agreement with the U.S. and face its troops away from its hated enemy. Also would get oil from Iran after the fight for this.
Gulf states (besides Saudi Arabia)- They have no militaries except some minor, easily defeatable naval forces, and a regiment or two of horribly trained soldiers. Would surrender if Iran beat Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
Saudi Arabia- outnumbered more than 2:1 by the Iranian military, would fold without massive U.S. military and economic support. Even then, our help might arrive too late.
Iraq- no military except ours, and Shiite militias could facilitate Iranian military occupation and transit to Saudi Arabia if promised a share of the oil revenues and increased power in the Iraqi government.
Turkey- No reason to care, and its military has no ability to project itself farther than its own borders, plus Kurdish population is a massive variable that they would not want to inflame.
OBVIOUSLY, this leaves the United States as the sole force to stop Iran from capturing a strangehold on the world's oil supplies. For sure, this goal played a large role in the decision to invade Iraq. However, our prolonged occupation of Iraq has overstretched the Army and Marines massively. Although the Navy has increased its presence in the Persian Gulf, no matter how many Tom Clancy books you read to the contrary, the Navy cannot stop a land invasion of Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Iran has a peak ability of putting over 18 million MEN into uniform. the United States would battle such force with at most 200,000 men, even if we had the political willpower to fight.
WHAT CAN WE DO TO STOP THIS?
Simple: pull out of Iraq now. Two main reasons: first- perhaps Iraq could then piece itself back together to be able to provide at least token resistance to invading Iran, allowing the U.S. to prepare in Saudi Arabia.
second- pulling out would give the American military a chance to regroup, recruit more ground soldiers, revolutionize the technology, retrain, and restore morale. So when we learn Iran is finally launching its invasion, we can deploy a ready army as a whole to Saudi Arabia, not have to fight piecemeal through Iraq and then have mainly Reserve troops with a few regulars in the Continental US attempt to stop the Iranian juggernaught outside Riyadh.
DONT PUSH IRAN. AND IF YOU WANT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IRAN, PULL OUT OF IRAQ NOW. IT'S YOUR CHOICE.
http://www.cnn.com/...
http://www.globalfirepower.com/
https://www.cia.gov/...