OK, the cat is pretty much out of the bag, barring a last minute change of heart, John Edwards is running for the nomination of the Democratic Party to be President of the United States of America. So, I thought I'd write about the Announcement, how to get involved, what John has been up to since November 2004, and end with a discussion of the 2008 primary race.
The Edwards Announcement Tour
New Orleans, Louisiana
From what I can gather from C-SPAN and a few other websites, The Announcement will be in New Orleans on Thursday, December 28, sometime in the morning in the Lower Ninth Ward.
If I know my John Edwards, he'll be down in NOLA doing cleanup and/or rebuild (like he did with the "Opportunity Rocks" Cleanup Spring Break with 700+ College Students back in March; see pictures here), probably the day before (that means today).
These Tour events have been announced at John Edwards Events. You can get tickets to these events and get more information at that website.
Iowa
Thursday, December 28, Des Moines, at the Iowa Historical Building, at 5:00 pm
New Hampshire
Friday, December 29, Portsmouth, at the Little Harbour Elementary School, at 12:00 Noon
Nevada
Friday, December 29, Reno, at the Grand Sierra Resort, at 5:30 pm
South Carolina
Saturday, December 30, West Columbia, at the Brookland Health and Wellness Center, 1:00 pm
North Carolina
Saturday, December 30, Chapel Hill, at the new Campaign Headquarters at The Green at Southern Village, 4:00 pm
What Can You Do If You Want to Learn More About Edwards or Want to Support Him in the Primary
The OAC Website: http://oneamericacommittee.com/ (undoubtedly that URL will change sometime tomorrow)
The OAC Blog: http://blog.oneamericacommittee.com/ (get a userid before it goes over to Edwards08 or something)
OneCorps: (organizing online to build the one America we all believe in): http://onecorps.com/
The Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/...
The MySpace Page: http://www.myspace.com/...
The YouTube Page: http://www.youtube.com/...
The Flickr Page: http://www.flickr.com/...
If you're in Iowa, head over to http://www.iowaforedwards.com
And check out the first three Edwards Webisodes at http://oneamericacommittee.com/...
Webisode 1: Plane Truths
While en route to a teacher's conference in Storm Lake, Iowa, John talks about remaining authentic in the political world.
Webisode 2: The Golden Rule
John tells a story from home and talks about corporate responsibility as he travels to a rally in Pittsburgh.
Webisode 3: Plight of Uganda
John travels with the International Rescue Committee to an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp outside Kitgum, Uganda, just over 30 miles from the Sudan border.
Newsweek published an article about this webisode this week:
"The Webisodes are the brainchild of Rielle Hunter, a filmmaker who met Edwards at a New York bar where Edwards was having a business meeting. "I didn't think it was John Edwards," Hunter recalls, "because the public persona did not mesh at all with the person who was sitting in front of me." Hunter pitched Edwards on the documentaries as a medium for bringing the "real John Edwards" to the people."
The Email from John from three days ago
For the past two years, we've worked together to build an America that lives up to its promise -- one where we all share in prosperity at home and one that shows real moral leadership around the world.
I'm proud of our successes fighting poverty, supporting working families, and standing up for what we believe.
Now, we have a big decision to make -- and I do mean we.
I'm getting ready to take this effort to the next level - to bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming.
But this is our effort, and we can only succeed if we're all in it together. So before I make a final decision, I need to hear from you: Are you ready?
If you're ready to take this to the next level, and launch a renewed national effort to change America, send me a note and let me know: JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com
If you have friends or family who share this vision, I want to hear from them too. Please forward this on to anyone you know who might want to join this big new effort.
I believe we can run a totally new kind of endeavor -- one that puts our ideals into action, and puts the hopes and dreams of the American people above the personal ambition and play-it-safe strategy of traditional politics.
I can't promise you where this will ultimately lead. But I can promise you this: if you're on board, we'll launch a renewed commitment to change our country from the bottom up. We'll always speak from the heart. And together, we'll reach out to millions of people to let them know it's still okay to dream big dreams, an d do everything we can to make them real --because that's what America is all about.
So the only question is: Are you ready?
If you want to take this effort to next level, send me an e-mail and let me know: JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com</div>
Stay tuned: I'll let you know what we decide early next week.
Happy holidays, and may it be a bright new year for all.
Your friend, John
What Has John Been Up To Since November 2004
The 2006 Campaign
Instead of working his donor list and cutting checks from his PAC, Edwards spent much of 2006 attending and headlining fundraisers for Democratic candidates. He helped raise over $9.5 million for federal, state and local candidates. Among the most notable, Edwards campaigned with:
Ned Lamont in August (Connecticut, US Senate, Lost)
Jim Webb in September (Virginia, US Senate, Won)
Sherrod Brown (Ohio, US Senate, Won) [At a fundraiser in Ohio, Paul Hackett said, "When I met John Edwards, I'm not ashamed to say, at least in political terms, I fell in love with the guy."]
Claire McCaskill in September (Missouri, US Senate, Won)
Larry Kissell in October (North Carolina, US House, Lost by a lousy 300 votes)
Heath Shuler in August and October (North Carolina, US House, Won)
Amy Klobuchar in August (Minnesota, US Senate, Won)
Patty Wetterling in September (Minnesota, US House, Lost)
Ted Strickland in July (Ohio, Governor, Won; video)
and 53 other candidates throughout America (including Bruce Braley and Jim Loebsack in Iowa)
And John formed the "Raising the States" Initiative to fundraise and campaign for state-wide Democrats and help build the Dem party up from the local level. He also led the drive for minimum wage increases in over eight states (see below).
John Edwards and Jim Webb, September 2006 (a ticket preview?)
Economic Populism
The old timey Democratic ideology is back -- Economic Populism, the mainstay of the party back when Democrats were consistently the majority party in America. Just ask Taylor Marsh, or David Sirota, or Christopher Hayes in The Nation:
... the hidden story of the (2006) election was the appeal of economic populism in a country whose middle class is increasingly feeling the squeeze. Coast to coast, Democrats running for local and national office campaigned on raising the minimum wage, repealing welfare for Big Oil and opposing trade deals lacking protection for workers and the environment, and their message resonated with an electorate anxious about the economy. Half of all voters rated the economy not good or poor, and a full 69 percent said their family's economic situation had either gotten worse or stayed the same since the last election. Democrats won both these groups by wide margins.
... If there's going to be a center-left majority in this country, its electoral strength is going to rest on a coalition bound by a shared interest in economic justice.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and so it is, despite his wishes, with David Brooks. In October he wrote an oped in which he argued that the November campaign would mean that either the Democratic Party would win on Edwards' policy of economic populism, or the defeat of John Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb in Virginia, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Claire McCaskill in Missouri would spell a major defeat for Democratic progressive populism and John Edwards. They all won! So, apparently "This is John Edwards's Party!" Yes, the clusterfuck in Iraq and Republican scandals played a major role in the Democratic victories of 2006, but so did economic populism, and going forward the winning message will emphasize moving people up and keeping people in the great American middle-class.
And Edwards places this Building One America message within a values-language frame so that we can win back moderate Catholics, Southern Democrats, and Reagan Democrats.
Edwards and volunteer college students on their spring break help cleanup New Orleans, March 2006
Minimum Wage
Edwards spent much of the past two years working on raising the wages of Americans by working to raise the minimum wage on the federal and state levels. He worked with his former colleague Ted Kennedy and fellow populist Bernie Sanders in Washington (video) and was a major leader of ACORN's (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now; a national organization representing low-income families) campaign to raise the minimum wage through state-wide ballot initiatives. Those ballot initiatives were wildly successful -- we were 6 for 6:
Arizona's Proposition 202: 66% Yes; 34% No (a major help for Harry Mitchell (AZ-5; won with 51%) and Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8; won with 54%).
Colorado's Amendment 42: 53% Yes; 47% No
Missouri's Proposition B: 76% Yes; 24% No (McCaskill 50% defeats incumbent Talent 47%)
Montana's Initiative 151: 73% Yes; 27% No (Tester 49% defeats incumbent Burns 48%)
Nevada's Question 6: 69% Yes; 31% No (Ross Miller won Secretary of State for Nevada at 48.73%, that may come in handy in 2008)
Ohio's Issue 2: 56% Yes; 44% No (Strickland and Brown were probably going to get elected anyway, but the ballot initiative helped them frame their campaigns around economics and social justice)
Thus, the minimum wage ballot initiatives were key in electing a Democratic majority in the senate in 2006, since the votes it brought out were almost certainly key for Tester and probably for McCaskill as well. Edwards and others correctly saw the popularity of raising the minimum wage and used it as our wedge issue to get us into office -- the guy knows the electorate and how to campaign.
Because of the raises in the minimum wage in those six states plus North Carolina and Michigan (where Republicans caved in under pressure of similar initiatives and passed raises), tens-of-thousands of families are going better today than they were last Christmas.
The theme is perfect:
It is time for America to once again reward work. It's time to make work pay again and to give these workers the opportunity to live the American dream.
Poverty Elimination
After the "defeat" of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, John continued his "life's passion" of helping alleviate poverty by founding and directing the Center on Poverty, Work, and Opportunity at the University of North Carolina. The vision of the Center was:
The UNC Center for Poverty, Work and Opportunity will create a forum for the best minds in the state and the nation to work on issues of poverty, work and opportunity. The Center has four goals: first, to address the pressing needs of those currently living at or below the poverty level; second, to provide a non-partisan interdisciplinary forum to examine innovative and practical ideas to move more Americans out of poverty; third, to raise public awareness of issues related to work and poverty; and fourth to train a new generation to combat the causes and effects of poverty and to improve the circumstances of working people.
During his tenure as Director of the Poverty Center, Edwards took his crusade to "eradicate poverty in America in 30 years" to more than thirty states. The center has been extremely successful and has developed numerous new policies to end poverty in America among the working-poor. As Edwards puts it, ending poverty in America is "the great moral cause of our time." Edwards has put forward a controversial "cultural integration" plan to give low-income families housing vouchers to move into better neighborhoods, called for expansions to Bill Clinton's earned-income tax credits, demanded a concerted crackdowns on predatory lenders, laid out plans for "work bonds" to help low-income workers build savings and assets, and proposed the formation of one million Stepping Stones Jobs to employ the jobless. After Hurricane Katrina he spoke pointedly about how "the face of poverty in America is the face of color" and promoted an ambitious Gulf Coast recovery program modeled on FDR's Works Progress Administration -- a touchstone for the kind of big-government liberalism that the most Democratic leaders today wouldn't have touched with a ten-foot pole just a few months ago.
Indeed on numerous issues from poverty reduction, to education, to universal healthcare, Edwards is done with thinking small. In his standard 2005 speech, he goes on:
I think in our effort to be elected, we've become minimalists, tinkering around the edges -- "Our tax cut is better than yours, or, We'll give you smaller class sizes." That's not what the country wants. We've got to give the American people something big and important to be unified by. Republicans use big things to divide America. I think we can use big things to unite America.
Another example of this is that Edwards will likely come out with some form of universal healthcare program during 2007.
The poverty elimination policy discussions were capped by a Center for American Progress speech entitled "Restoring the American Dream: Combating Poverty and Building One America" in September 2005 and another major speech at the National Press Club Policy Address in June 2006 (video).
The College for Everyone Pilot Program
Back during 2003-2004 Democratic Party primaries, Edwards called for a "College for Everyone" Plan (see his booklet "Real Solutions for America," page 42). In 2005 he decided to put that idea into action. Raising the funds himself, Edwards set up a pilot College for Everyone Program at Greene Central High School rural North Carolina. Greene County Schools are in an poor (70 percent of students receive free or reduced lunch) and ethnically mixed district (about 50% African-American, 33% White, and 15% Hispanic) in Snow Hill in eastern North Carolina. The program pays for students' freshman year at any of the state's 16 public universities or community colleges in counties surrounding Greene. The "College for Everyone" program covers the college bills of high-school seniors who complete a college prep or college tech course in high school, refrain from using drugs or alcohol, and don't get suspended or commit a crime. Scholarship winners must also promise to spend 10 hours a week during their first year of college volunteering (or the equivalent over the summer).
I love this program, as it accomplishes three major goals: improves America by bringing more of us into higher education, helps people out of poverty and the lower-middle-class, and builds a sense of patriotism based on community service.
Work with Trade Unions and American Workers
Edwards stood with organized labor or walked picket lines for UNITE-HERE's Hotel Workers Rising campaign in Sacramento, San Francisco (video), Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and Honolulu, with Justice for Janitors at the University of Miami, with the United Steelworkers striking against Goodyear in Akron (video), etc. and etc. Edwards has attended dozens of union rallies and conferences and has been a tireless advocate of the Employee Free Choice Act.
For all this work, Edwards was awarded the Wellstone Award, an award for those elected leaders who take a strong stand for workers’ freedom to form unions and who fight for social and economic justice, by the AFL-CIO in early December. He was a headline speaker at the AFL-CIO Conference back in July 2005, at the United Mine Workers Conference this past April, and at the Teamsters Conference this past July.
In addition, Edwards has been a major backer of the Wake Up Wal-Mart campaign, including headlining a rally in Pittsburgh in August and doing a conference call in November.
Also in early December, Edwards brought Michigander David Bonior to be the future campaign manager of the future campaign. That will, no doubt help cement Edwards' support among the Change To Win unions, the UAW, and a large part of the AFL-CIO making his campaign a serious force in 2007-2008.
Indeed, Edwards is doing so well among organized American workers, though he's inocculated from getting tarred as a "sop of Big Labor," that the other side is getter nervous: See Novak's recent oped "Labor's Man in '08?".
John Edwards Marches with Striking Janitors at the University of Miami, April 2006
Foreign Policy
Edwards came out strong since 2004 to bolster his foreign policy credentials. He began making a clear link between his values-based domestic program and his vision for a values-based foreign policy.
As is well known, in November 2005, Edwards came out in the Washington Post and straight up appologized for voting for the Iraq War Resolution (The Authorization to Use Military Force in Iraq resolution), stating, "I was wrong.... It was a mistake to vote for [the IWR]."
That same month (November 2005, at the same time as John Murtha came out for withdrawal and a month before the Iraqi election), Edwards came out for the immediate withdrawal of 40k US troops from Iraq followed by a gradual withdrawal of the rest within 12-18 months.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://news.yahoo.com/...
Edwards was the co-chair of the Council on Foreign Relations; Russian-American Relations Task Force with Jack Kemp (who John has a good working-relationship with even as they have engaged in good, healthy, intellectual debates on differing solutions to poverty, tax policy, and housing).
In addition, Edwards visited India, Russia, Germany, China, Israel, Uganda, where he usually met with the head of state and other leaders. He has also spoken out against the genocide in Darfur, Sudan.
And, on top of all that domestic and foreign work
he wrote a nice little book (that I got for Christmas) -- Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives -- and so did Elizabeth -- Saving Graces.
For more on what John Edwards has done since 2004, see the OAC Bloggers' JRE News series and the official OAC Newsroom.
The Chances of 2007-2008
As it stands now, I believe John Edwards is your odds on favorite to get the 2008 nomination. I'm not going to go into the latest polling here, but it is clear that the presumed front-runner isn't actually running in front of anyone in any state that matters (Iowa or New Hampshire). It's unclear if Obamamania has peeked or will continue, but my guess is that his support is relatively light (and I think 40% of Democrats still have no idea who he is). A quick look at the early primaries as things stand (though my, things have changed a ton in the past 6 weeks, so the obvious caveats apply).
Southern Primary
That was going to be a tough one, but it all ended with withdrawal of Warner in November. If Democrats win when we elect Southerners (and we do), well, we've got one real choice as things look now.
Netroots Primary
In the official DailyKos Strawpolls, Edwards has gone from 8% in the spring of 2006, to 15% in July, to 28% and a first place finish in December. It's clear he'll be one of two or three leading netroots candidates and that no single candidate will emerge as the netroots candidate (it'll likely be split between Edwards and Obama or those two and Clark if Wes runs). Honestly, a year ago, 28% was beyond my wildest dreams (my high hopes were to get 20-25%), so it's all icing on the cake from here.
John has been on DailyKos twice in the past few months (here in November and here in October), each time coming here not for some document dump, but to actively engage us with question and answer sessions where he has stuck around for over two hours.
Money Primary
Edwards will get money and grassroots activists from two of the biggest core groups in our Party: labor unions and trial lawyers. Couple that with netroots money and Edwards will pretty easily match HRC. Edwards raised about $33.5 million dollars in 2004 (much of it coming when he was in the low single digits in polls in 2003).
Iowa
Edwards has his grassroots and state campaign organization intact in Iowa. In addition, Edwards has very strong support among the important Party county chairs: In a mid-October survey Edwards has the support of 40% of Democratic Party County Chairs (Vilsack had 15%, Undecided 11%, Obama 11%, Hillary Clinton 8%, Kerry 6%).
In addition, Edwards leads the first three Iowa polls, is diligently working the state (10 visits since 2005), and is well-liked by the Des Moines Register.
Vilsack is a non-factor in his home state, and may be the first to leave if his polls don't go up by the summer.
There isn't much evidence to demonstrate that being from a neighboring state helps candidate (especially since in favorite son types will simply back Vilsack), Gephardt and Bob Kerrey received no boost because their states bordered Iowa. Obama will compete in the eastern cities, but won't do much of anything away from the river.
Kerry is dead man walking (he's already lost 2/3 to 3/4 of his 2004 support).
For what it's worth all the major Iowa bloggers have Edwards in their top 3-4 Hot spots.
Prediction: Edwards 45%, Obama 30%, Hillary 20%, Others 5%. Vilsack drops out before January 2008.
Nevada
So Edwards wins Iowa and takes momentum into Nevada. Caucus is all turnout, and the Democratic party in Nevada is one organization: Culinary Union 226 of Las Vegas, Unite-Here's power base, the strongest local union in the country, 60,000 strong. And Unite-Here are already 100% behind Edwards (that'll be true of the Change To Win unions and the UAW at least). Union households make up 25% of the electorate in Nevada, and will be a much larger portion of the Democratic caucus vote. Edwards has developed deep ties with union leaders and workers over the past two years; he's been very active in "Hotel Workers Rising" movement. Edwards also made friends through his support of Nevada's successful raising the minimum wage proposal and in December he announced David Bonior will be a campaign manager of any to-be-announced campaign. Edwards has just about locked down the major unions in Nevada. If you take a look at the percentage of Hispanics who are registered to vote, it's really low, and if you look at Hispanics who vote in primaries, it's extremely low -- Richardson bombs.
Sometime this coming week, American Research Group is expected to release the first Nevada poll.
Prediction: Edwards 50%, Hillary 20%, Richardson 15%, Obama 15%. Richardson drops out.
New Hampshire
This might be the place where Obama and Hillary do best, but NH did follow Iowa in 2004, and may jump on the Edwards-Iowa-Nevada bandwagon.
The lastest, mid-December poll out of NH had:
Hillary Clinton 22%
Barack Obama 21%
John Edwards 16%
Al Gore 10%
John Kerry 7%
Wesley Clark 4%
Dennis Kucinich 4%
South Carolina
And then there's SC, the state Edwards already convincingly won in 2004! Edwards still has the local-boy-done-good vote (he was born in South Carolina), will compete with Clinton and Obama for African-American vote (Edwards won the African-American vote in 2004, 37% to Kerry's 34% and Sharpton's 17% -- Blacks made up 47% of the primary voters last time around), and still will have the momentum.
One problem for Obama will be if he has to share a good proportion of the African-American vote with Al Sharpton.
Sometime this coming week, American Research Group is expected to release the first South Carolina poll.
Prediction: Edwards 45%, Obama 40%, Hillary 10%, Others 5%
This isn't a "Why I Support John Edwards for President" diary (that'll come later), but I will say that I believe Edwards senses that the time is right for a progressive populist campaign that changes the mindset of this country and moves us to "a new kind of patriotism."
Update: I wrote this diary before the passing of President Ford. I just want to take the time as a Michigander and a Wolverine to pass my condolences along to President Ford's family and wish him a successful journey to the other side.
http://www.nytimes.com/...