Venezuela is Voting Today

My hope is that Venezuela will not be destabilized after this election.  My worries about destabilization arise from  several factors. The first is the history of U.S. intervention in Central and South American countries by putting into power, and supporting, brutal dictators.  The second is seeing the Venezuelan ambassador speak at the School of the Americas Watch where he talked about regime change  in South America being a very real concern of their's, based on current practices of the Bush Administration.  And third, the recent diary of  Florida Democrat, Another Coup in Venezuela, which talks about  the possible efforts our country has taken in U.S. financed post-election destabilization plans around the world and also to oust Chavez.  You can also read more about this at VenezuelaAnalysis.com.

Below the fold is more about the polling and  interesting comments from Chavez yesterday.

On November 23 an Associated Press story ran about the AP-IPSOS poll:

A strong majority of Venezuelans plan to cast their ballots for President Hugo Chavez on Dec. 3, with most saying the fiery opponent of President Bush has handled government and foreign relations well, according to an AP-Ipsos poll that revealed deep divisions along class lines.

About 59 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Chavez for a third term, while 27 percent said they would support opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. Thirteen percent of those surveyed by the polling firm Ipsos for The Associated Press said they were undecided or wouldn't answer.

In stark contrast to the AP-IPSOS poll,  the polling firm implicated in regime change in Florida Democrat’s Another Coup in Venezuela diary has the Venezuelan presidential race at a dead heat. Which poll do you trust?

Last week, Mr. Schoen, of Penn, Schoen & Berland, released the findings of his latest survey on the Venezuelan evening news.  As expected, Penn's survey showed that Chavez's opposition, Manuel Rosales, was nearly tied in the polls with Chavez.  Chavez, it showed, had only 48% support, and his opponent Manuel Rosales had gained significantly up to 42%.  This poll is now being reported across all the major Venezuelan media, to a huge audience, showing that Rosales was gaining more and more everyday, and could possibly win.  Mr. Schoen added his personal opinion, "The momentum is clearly with Rosales."

On Saturday, President Chavez declared that media carrying out fraudulent mid-day polls must "assume the consequences." Venezuela's government is aware of these attempts to overturn the results of their election and we should be too.  In the next few days it will be important for social justice activists to follow  the reports of international observers  and make sure their observations are also reported in our corporate media  here in the U.S.  

 

From Michael Fox writing at VenezuelaAnalysis.com here are a couple of other Chavez comments I found interesting.

Regarding the opposition’s pre-emptive claims that the elections will be fraudulent, Chavez stated, "There is no possibility of fraud. No one can commit fraud in these elections in Venezuela. We have a completely transparent type of system. You can audit it, you can observe it."
Chavez said that Venezuela never had international observers or vote audits before.
"I would like to welcome the international observers," he added.

Speaking on democracy, Chavez stated that in the eight years, there have been 11 (including this Sunday) national elections, while over the 40-year "democratic" period before Chavez, there where only 15.
"There will be more and more democracy here, participatory democracy, and that’s why we are going to win this election," said Chavez. "Those who don’t realize this, will have their reasons."

Speaking of destabilization attempts, Chavez also declared that they recently foiled an assassination plot against his main opposition opponent, Manuel Rosales.
"It was to say that Chávez sent them to kill him and generate chaos," said Chavez, who did not give further details.

For those of you following the Venezuelan election today, please post any links to updates you have in the comment area and I will add them to the Update area of the diary. I should be able to keep an eye on it most of the day.

Update:

Thanks to Truza for providing additional blogs posting about the Venezuelan election. One of the bloggers asks that we not bite at every rumour that surfaces. I think that's good advice as I'm sure it will take days for the observers to make their reports.

Anti-Chavez blogs:

The Devil's Excrement
Venezuela News and Views

Pro-Chavez blogs:

Oil Wars
Hands off Venezuela

Here's a flickr pool with photos of the Venezuelan voting happening today.

Update 2:

Reuters is reporting there have problems with some of the voting machines printing out blank ballots. Rosales, the opposition candidate, called on authorities to fix these machines. There are also hundreds of international observers there, so I'm sure we'll get a good feel in the coming days of how fair this election was.

Voice of America reports..

Some polling stations opened late, but there were no early reports of major irregularities.

Venezuela has implemented what many observers regard as the most exhaustive set of electoral safeguards ever seen in Latin America. They include fingerprint voter identification, electronic balloting with a paper receipt and thorough vigilance of balloting by election workers, representatives of both major candidates and observers form the Organization of American States, the European Union, Mercosur, and the Atlanta-based Carter Center. More than 100,000 troops have been dispatched to provide security at 11,000 polling stations.

Update 3 (last today):

Reuters says Chavez headds to Venezueal re-election according to a government-paid exit poll.

Chavez won 58 percent of the vote, while Manuel Rosales, governor of an oil-producing province, trailed with 40 percent, said Evans/McDonough Co., a U.S. pollster commissioned by the state oil company.

[...]

Although Evans/McDonough is linked to the government, its surveys have credibility in Venezuela because it has been transparent about its methodology and it precisely predicted the outcome of a 2004 recall referendum that Chavez won.

[...]

Teodoro Petkoff, one of the most respected figures in the opposition, said the voting was carried out in a "satisfactory" manner and when irregularities emerged they were generally addressed by the electoral authorities.

The OAS says that there were some minor problems with the election, but that overall turnout wasmassive and peaceful.

•  Hands off Venezuela delegation in Venezuela Today

  This group appears to have given at least one update on their blogspot blog today. I'm not sure when they're going to update again.

  http://handsoffvenezuela.blogspot.com/

  by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:10:36 AM PDT

•  Good post

  International events don't get nearly enough coverage in the States.  I don't understand his point on elections though.  15 elections in 40 years is about what we have in the States.  8 elections in 11 years is a lot, that doesn't give the winners a chance to do much

  by slothlax on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:30:41 AM PDT

  •  Here's how I take his comment

    It has to do with the common thread that Chavez is a dictator consolidating his power by suppressing the media and committing human rights abuses.  

    The fact that they've had 8 elections and he is still in power is a sign that not only is he the most democratically elected leader in the world but that his policies are also approved of by the majority of Venezuelans.

    by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:36:48 AM PDT

    •  Not if they're rigged

      I don't necessarily think they are, but having elections almost every year makes me think instability rather than democracy.  Its a good way to pack the leg with your allies.

      Its just a quibble, I think the guy gets a bad rap in our media.  Maybe too much of a free pass here, though.

      by slothlax on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:01:06 AM PDT

      •  From everything I've read, they aren't rigged

        I've been doing a lot of reading about Venezuela in the world media over the last year and from what I can tell these elections have not been rigged.

        In every case I can think of where the opposition has claimed problems some independent organization, such as The Carter Center, has not found any merit to their claims.

        The following quote is from an LA Times article posted today.

        Chavez is getting credit for making today's election more transparent than those in the past, agreeing to the auditing of half the ballot boxes and allowing more than 1,000 foreign and national electoral observers.

        The one item in the above article that does concern me is Chavez's interest in changing the constitution to eliminate term limits on the presidency.  The term limits were put into the new constitution.  

        Removing the term limits is something Chavez has talked about in the past in the context of needing one more term to make sure that the Bolivarian Revolution is irreversibly on it's path. I think it's definitely the wrong way to go and it's something the people may note approve of. Something to worry about after the elections.

        by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:15:07 AM PDT

        •  I am warily optimistic

          I think Chavez is mostly bluster and fluff, but relativly harmless until he does something like trying to eliminate term limits.  From what I've read, he has poured a lot of money into social programs (which is great), but not used his oil windfall to help pay off debts or otherwise set up the country for long term financial stability.  So he may make a lot of headlines, but when he's gone Venezuela will likely be no better or worse off than it was before he arrived on the scene.

          by slothlax on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:27:05 AM PDT

          •  Could be a major problem if oil prices drop

            There was one comment somewhere on DailyKOS about Saudi Arabia possibly glutting the oil market to keep Iran from having enough money to finance groups of Iraqi citizens.  $50/barrel seems to be the magic number for Venezuela to make enough money to keep going.

            I'm not sure about the debt, but it seems like you have to spend money to make money.  Is that what The New Deal did?  Will the increased infrastructure and education create a sufficient return on investment to cover the additional debt.

            The U.S. State Department does mention Venezuela's growing debt, but also said that it's debt/GDP ratio is low by Latin American standards.

            Venezuelan sovereign debt, both domestic and foreign, has been increasing. The government announced plans to prepay some of its most expensive foreign debt and to extend the debt profile of the domestic debt, reducing near-term debt service. Despite increases in domestic and foreign debt, Venezuela’s debt/GDP ratio is low by Latin American standards. Venezuela’s Emerging Markets Bond Index investment risk rating, at 213 basis points, dropped somewhat over 2005, but remained higher than all countries in the region except Argentina and Brazil.

            by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:56:04 AM PDT

            •  This is his Aquiles Heel

              for the record, I was born in venezuela but I am a naturalized US Citizen, most of my family is still there. I am anti-Chavez now but I really liked him when he first ran for president and won.

              I don't know how much he would have been able to help the poor had oil prices not risen the way they have in the years he's been in power.

              Much (not all) of his help is in the form of "handouts" - I dislike that word but I use it because it reflects the "teach a man to fish" issue - because of the misiones, for example, a person can learn how to read and obtain a HS diplome in one year (while being paid a stipend for studying), that same person can then attend one of the Bolivarian universities that do not require an entrance exam - I'm not 100% sure but I think they still get a stipend during university.

              Public housing is behing schedule.

              Public corruption continues to be very high.

              Crime is completely out of hand.

              Public debt has increased, inflation is still high (I think it may reach around 15% this year but don't have a link), interest rates are in the 30's, mortgages are basically non-existant.

              Now, imagine a scenario where oil prices drop, there is no way he will be able to afford all this, where is he going to cut down? Corruption is not going to suddenly end, so my fear, is that the Venezuelan poor will get screwed (again!)

              I have always said that Venezuela could be the best socialist country in the world because of its riches - I still feel the same but I am afraid that Chavez, in his autocratic way, is much more interested in the power grab. :-(

              by Truza on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:18:05 AM PDT

              •  Thanks for your post

                For some reason, on left-leaning blogs, Chavez is defended and admired. I appreciate your perspective. For some reason, just because he opposes Bush, some people glorify Chavez. I don't think he is good for Venezuela. And also, just because he opposes Bush, it doesn't mean that he should get support either.

                by jiacinto on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:33:15 AM PDT

              •  What would you do different Truza?

                How would you share the oil wealth with all Venezuelan's instead of the way Chavez is doing it?  

                I know the opposition candidate wants to provide monthly cash directly to citizens but that literally seems to be a handout.

                On the otherhand, paying someone to learn to read and write or go to school is like paying someone to learn a skill that will improve their lot and also the country.  I can't think of anything better than being able to pay someone to learn how to fish.

                by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:41:07 AM PDT

                •  Do you think that 1 yr of schooling

                  prepares someone to go to University?  I don't. Does it prepare them to go out and get a job? Unlikely. You need to teach trade - that's the "teaching to fish" analogy, I guess it wasn't clear on my post. For the record, "handouts" are not bad in general, it depends on how it's done.

                  Education is the key to a nation's growth as well as to eliminating poverty and you start by teaching people a trade. I think this mision is one of Chavez' best - just not followed thru.

                  An example is the land redistribution; land is being given to peasants without teaching them how to grow anything or raise animals. How long do you think they are going to stay there before heading out to the city (Venezuela's problem for decades). Venezuela imports over 90% of foodstuffs - how about investing in local food production?

                  You redistribute wealth in a sustainable manner by investing in your country and creating jobs. Anothe ris thur subsidies, the lowest gasoline prices in LatAm (Since before Chavez) is an example as is Mercal. I do not believe Chavez' redistribution is sustainable.

                  An alarming number of Venezuelans are "employed" in the informal economy. Those who receive any kind of stipend are not counted an unemployed. Unemplyement is high in Vzla.A gov't can change that tur investment and education, especifically trade education.

                  You ask about Rosales, IMO, he is probably not the best but it is certainly one that a) was not part of the corrupt gov'ts prior to Chavez and b) is not a polarizing (ie. foaming at the mouth) as other opp. members.

                  The fact is that, even the opposition (OK, most opposition, there are still some who dream), does not want to go back to the pre-Chavez govt's. they were horrible, what we want is someone less autocratic, less corruption, more security, more jobs without having to be "rojo, rojito" - this last comment is in reference to a speech given by the current president of PDVSA, the gov't oil company, where he said that only those who were "red, red" would be allowed to work there.

                  I'm sorry if I'm rambling a bit (and my lack of links), I'm in Europe so it's late, my young girls wore me out today and I am working on a project with a deadline of last Friday :-)

                  by Truza on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 10:08:13 AM PDT

      •  I don't get it.

        There's never been an hint -- not a hint -- of voting fraud during Chavez' tenure.

        Yet doubts such as those expressed in your post continually crop up.

        Just goes to show how pernicious is the MSM corporate media in the US when (presumably) clear thinkers cannot clear out the fog of propaganda.

        Tell you what:  The US would do a lot better embracing a popularly elected politician like Chavez instead of the irrationally demonizing him.

        Can you tell me why?  Hint: it's black and sticky.

        by XOVER on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:49:26 AM PDT

        •  He's ok by me

          But his attitude towards a free press and legitimate oppostition are a bit much for my taste.  In light of those attitudes and his desire to change the constitution so he can be reelected indefinately, I wouldn't put fraud past him.

          That said, in my post I was merely making the point that if there are national elections 8 out of 11 years that doesn't necessarily mean democracy is strong.

          by slothlax on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:56:38 AM PDT

          •  How do you perceive his attitude to free press?

            Everything I've read says that privately owned media is alive and thriving in Venezuela, including television, radio, and print.  Unfortuantely, the private media is owned mainly by the opposition and is openly anti-Chavez to the point of downright lying.  Recently there has been an attempt to institute at least some accountability for media who put out false stories.

            Here's a quote from The Nation about Venezuelan media in 2003.

            In Venezuela, even color commentators are enlisted in the commercial media's open bid to oust the democratically elected government of Hugo Chávez. Andrés Izarra, a Venezuelan television journalist, says that the campaign has done so much violence to truthful information on the national airwaves that the four private TV stations have effectively forfeited their right to broadcast. "I think their licenses should be revoked," he says.

            It's the sort of extreme pronouncement one has come to expect from Chávez, known for nicknaming the stations "the four horsemen of the apocalypse." Izarra, however, is harder to dismiss. A squeaky clean made-for-TV type, he worked as assignment editor in charge of Latin America at CNN en Español until he was hired as news production manager for Venezuela's highest-rated newscast, El Observador on RCTV.

            I'm guessing that this Andres Izarra is the same one who wrote a letter about the Venezuelan press being freer than the U.S press in 2005 as Venezuela's Minister of Communications and information.

            by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:12:37 AM PDT

            •  Defining "truth"

              I admit my info is minimal at times, but when I heard about Chavez delving into determining what media is telling the truth that raised my eyebrow.

              by slothlax on Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 12:24:48 AM PDT

•  How many more elections will Chavez win?

  At what point will this become evidence of the weakness of democracy in Venezuela?

  Chavez declared that media carrying out fraudulent mid-day polls must "assume the consequences."

  Those are chilling words, not inspiring!

  by Kudos on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:46:51 AM PDT

  •  The strength of democracy in Venezuela

    can be read about in a series of reports from The Carter Center.  They have been involved in observing past Venezuelan elections.  You can find links to their reports at the bottom of this web page about the work of The Carter Center in Venezuela.

    by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 07:56:13 AM PDT

•  May the best man win again.

  by dft on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:18:45 AM PDT

•  One of my best friends is an engineer from

  Venezuela. He left as the politics changed.  He basically fears that as more power and less restrictions are voted in for the office of Presidency, the position will become dictatorial, much like Cuba.

  by kursk on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 08:47:37 AM PDT

•  For some balance, you need to read other places

  The site you posted is a Vzla gov't propaganda one.

  Two anti-Chavez blogs I like to read are:

  The Devil's Excrement
  Venezuela News and Views

  Both of these blogs have good analysis, usually backed up with credible information and are much less foaming at the mouth than others.

  For a pro-Chavez blog, I visit Oil Wars eventhough he spends quite a bit of time thrashing Bush rather than defending Chavez and some of his frequent visitors do foam more than usual.

  These three blogs will be monitoring voting "irregularities" today

  by Truza on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:00:30 AM PDT

  •  Thanks

    I'll add these to the diary as a blogging section about the election.

    by Thom K in LA on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 09:19:35 AM PDT

    •  Thanks and

      many, many thanks for engaging in dialog without jumping to the name-calling.

      I gave up after my first, and only, diary. The fact is, that perhaps a handful of people at dKos vote in Venezuela so it became an issue of "picking your battles" for me and I do have a family and a job that, ultimately, have a much higher priority in my life than arguing with kossacks about Chavez.

      So, again, thanks!

      by Truza on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 10:17:27 AM PDT

      •  It's good to have your perspective here

        I'm interested in talking to you because I've given some thought to moving to Merida for at least a while, especially if I don't have health care in the U.S.  (Self-employed with pre-existing conditions would not work in our fair nation.)  Part of my reasoning is that as an American in VZ I'm less likely to be the sort of target I might be in a right-wing country like Colombia.

        On Chavez -- look, I'm an Amnesty International / Transparency International good government type.  I despise dictatorship.  And yet I can't begrudge a country a right to legitimate defense.  The attempted coup against Chavez -- with U.S. acquiescence if not support if not pre-planning -- gives him a lot more latitude in my eyes than he would normally deserve.  It's not a blank check, but I simply can't rail too much about his not being as respectful of the principles of human rights when he has very good reason to think that my country is going to try to arrange to knock off his government so that we can have control of his oil.

        I would like to see some sort of a trade-off where Venezuela has real, serious, security guarantees -- although I'm not even sure how that would be possible -- in return for which Chavez would be held to serious human rights standards.  But I'm not sure that could be arranged: how can he guarantee security against a right-wing coup?  And I have no doubt that a right-wing coup will leave Venezuelans even worse off, as a few would get rich for sending their oil to the likes of us.

        by Major Danby on Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 11:01:43 AM PDT

        •  Major

          I'm with you on the coup issue. I find it the single most important error of the opposition - US backing only made it worse but, don't forget that Chavez himself attempted a coup against a democratically elected president and was released from jail as a symbol of goodwill and as a reconcilement gesture.

          The thing is, Chavez has always been the way he is right now, weven before the coup. The way he talks about Bush is the way he talks about anyone who is not with him. There is NO conciliatory ways in his tone and choice of words and this has always been like this.  

          He's already said, before yesterday, there is no room for compromise and that the Bolivarian way is the only way.

          I can't tell you much about a gringo (that's what they will call you and its 100% affectionate - or it was before Chavez - and not at all related to nationality. Venezuelans love nicknames and , generally speaking, anyone with an accent is called a "gringo" if white or a "turco" if not) living in Merida.

          All I can say is that I will not bring my gringo husband or children to live there in Caracas or Vargas (where I'm from). I fear for my own safety, never mind theirs.

          Note that this has nothing to do with Chavez, I'd be (much) more of a Chavez supporter if he fought the blatant and rampant corruption and didn't ignore personal safety.

          by Truza on Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 12:36:20 AM PDT

          •  I know that I wouldn't want to live in Caracas

            (due to the heat as much as the crime); I was wondering specifically about Merida, though.  Do you know about it specifically, or know who might know?

            by Major Danby on Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 08:20:22 AM PDT