There's been a definite surge for Dean since about Saturday in almost all of the polls, with a dramatic surge Sunday and Monday.
If Edwards or Clark were showing that kind of surge, I'd say they were going to win the primary. However, I question the quality of the Dean surge.
The final ARG poll notes that they're getting responses indicating that at least some of the Dean surge is based on "fairness/sympathy" against the media overkill of The Scream. I had a vague idea of that even before the ARG comments.
My sense is that this is not the kind of thing that will drive people to actually pull the lever for Dean. I continue to believe he has a firm ceiling on his support at 25%, and will likely get fewer votes than that, although the polls are beginning to indicate something different.
I don't have anything near full confidence in my conclusion on this. The Dean surge may indeed be for real. It just smells a bit different to me than other kinds of surges. We'll know very soon.