CROSSPOSTED FROM
PROGRESSIVE BLEND RADIO Tune In, Turn On, Vote Them Out!
As if the world needs another timeline, I am going to attempt to lay out most of the relevant events, both real and unsubstantiated, that we know publicly about the whole Iraq-Niger-Yellowcake-Wilson-Plame-Cheney-Libby-Bush affair, together with some Chasm commentary.
Our story begins in early 1999, as preparations are being made for a trip by the Iraqi Ambassador to the Vatican to several countries in Africa. One of his stops will be Niger:
Feb 1, 1999 - date of a several pieces of correspondence between the Iraqi government and the Holy See announcing and confirming Wissam al-Zahawie's forthcoming trip to Niger.These are probably authentic. Included is a letter from the Iraqi Ambassador that reappears as a forgery dated Sept 3, 2001. [Panorama/La Republica]
Will he attempt to buy pure uranium yellowcake from this country that exists to mine pure uranium yellowcake? Christopher Hitchens thinks so.
July 30, 1999 - date of a letter from the Niger Ministry of Foreign Affairs to his ambassador in Rome (translation on this page) asking him to contact the Iraqi ambassador, Mr. Zahawie, concerning an agreement signed June 28, 2000 (!), to furnish uranium to Iraq. [La Republica] Panorama published a version of the same letter with the date hand corrected to the year 2000. These documents are fakes.
Duh.
June, 1999 - [According to the report based on Joe Wilson's trip to Niger] "Businessmen" approach former Nigerian PM Mayaki with a proposal to "expand commercial relations" between Iraq and Niger. Mayaki interpreted this to mean they wanted to discuss a uranium sale. That meeting did take place, but Mayaki let the matter drop due to UN sanctions Iraq. [SSCOI Report, p. 43.]
This was taken from the SSCOI report and there is no indication if this "businessman" is al-Zahawie. Since he visited in Feb of 1999, not June, it would seem it was not him, but there are not enough details to be sure.
July 6 2000 - date that the Niger/Iraq deal was `officially' signed. No document has surfaced, but Wissam Al-Zahawie mentions in an Aug 10, 2003 Sunday Independent interview that he was interrogated by IAEA weapons inspectors about this alleged document. This is apparently a document `closing' the sale, and is referenced in the July 27, 2000 letter below.
Some have claimed that this document is the first page of the contract being referred to - the one that, in the Oct 15th DO intelligence report, supposedly contains the "verbatim text" of the sale agreement. Check it out.
July 27, 2000 - Date of a (fake) letter detailing the sale of uranium and referring to the agreement of July 6. This letter contains the reference to "500 tons of pure uranium per year."
This shipment amount later appears in the October 2002 NIE.
July 30, 2000 - date of a letter published by Panorama that is identical to the one bearing the same date in 1999. The date has been changed by hand. A fake.
Oct 10, 2000 - date of a cover letter to a protocol detailing the sale. Fake.
July 2001 - date of a coded letter from the Secretary of State of Niger to the Ambassador in Rome. The text details the shipping of uranium to <st1 :country region><st1 :place>Iraq and cautions utmost secrecy. Fake. [Panorama/La Republica]
Aug 28, 2001 - date of a (fake) letter from the Minister of Foreign Affairs to the Nigerian Ambassador in Romeconfirming a shipment of uranium.
Sept 3, 2001 - date of a letter identical to the one dated Feb 1, 1999. A fake. [Panorama/La Republica]
You get the idea. Someone, possibly connected one of the embassies involved, got a hold of the original letters and they were then used as templates to design a paper trail suggesting that a sale of uranium had been approved by the Prime Minister and the courts of Niger. The problem with all this, and the reason why these are such obvious fakes that the CIA didn't really even need to send Joe Wilson to Niger to check them out, the reason why even I can tell you they are fakes, is that the government of Niger doesn't control the mining of uranium in that country.This company does. According to the Areva (formerly Cogema) website, the two mines they operate in Niger - the only two mines in Niger, Cominak and Somair - produce a total of just under 4000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake per year. Do you think that a multinational corporation that makes its living providing uranium services to first world governments would risk diverting 500 tons - over 12% of its annual production - to a sanctioned country in violation of IAEA and UN regulations? Do you think they could expect to hide a sale that big? Neither do I. It's a ridiculous idea that needs almost no further inquiry (As we shall see, this is such an obvious flaw that the findings from Joe Wilson's trip to Niger will never get proper distribution within the US intelligence agencies or in the White House because analysts dismiss them as "nothing new.")
And yet...
Oct 15, 2001 - The Directorate of Operations (DO) at the CIA issues an intelligence report passing on another report from a `government source' (though not even identified in the SSCOI report as foreign, it is believed that the source - the agency that first obtained the fake documents - was Italian intelligence, SISMI, who then passed it on to British intelligence, MI6 ) indicating Niger planned to ship `several tons' of uranium to Iraq. The report says that negotiations for the sale had begun in 1999 and approved by the Niger government in 2000. The report indicated that the Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs had informed his European ambassadors in Oct. 2000 that an accord to send uranium to Iraq had been reached. This report was received with some skepticism within the Intelligence Community because of the tight controls over the Nigerian mining industry. [SSCOI Report, p 36]
Italian intelligence.They must know what's going on. No need to even check it out. Time to start shuffling paper:
Oct. 18, 2001 - The CIA issues a finished intelligence product based on the above report (Senior Executive Intelligence Brief, `Iraq: Nuclear-Related Procurement Efforts'). It reiterates the claim that Iraq sought uranium from Niger, but adds that Iraq has no known facilities for processing or enriching the material. [SSCOI Report, p 37]
So someone is thinking clearly enough to attach a few caveats, but they write a full report anyway. Meanwhile, our embassy has heard the rumors, and goes straight to the source:
Nov 20, 2001 - The US Embassy in Niger disseminates a cable in which it quotes the Director General of Niger's French-led mining consortium (that would be Areva) as saying "there was no possibility" that Niger had diverted any of the 3000 tons of yellowcake produced in its two uranium mines. [SSCOI Report, p 37]
That's another way of saying "send 12% of our capacity to Iraq? Are you fucking nuts?"
Feb 5, 2002 - CIA's DO issues a second intelligence report which again cited its source as a "government service." This report provided more details about the previously reported Iraq-Niger uranium agreement and also provided what was said to be "verbatim text" of the accord, which it contended was agreed upon during meetings held July 5-6, 2000. The report mentions 500 tons of uranium per year. Information in this report supposedly matches reports from 1999 indicating the preparations for Iraqi Ambassador and businessman Wissam al-Zahawi's visits to and other African countries which took place in Feb 1999. According to the Senate report, INR analysts continued to doubt the accuracy of the reporting because they thought Niger would be unlikely to risk such a risky transaction. [SSCOI Report, p 38]
The spooks are going over those documents tooth and nail, squeezing every last bit of intelligence from them. Just as a side note, Areva, the large French-owned consortium, used to operate a large uranium mine in Wyoming.I wonder if Dick Cheaney knows any of those guys? Speaking of Dick, around this time he is reading a yet another report, this one issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), though it is based on the earlier CIA reports: p>
Feb 12, 2002 - DIA writes finished report titled "Niamey signed on agreement to sell 500 tons of uranium a year to Baghdad" (NMJIC [National Military Joint Intelligence Center] Executive Highlight, Vol 028-02) [SSCOI Report, p.38]
The notable thing about this report, other than it's the only one we know Dick read, is that it's the only one that contains none of the caveats regarding the credibility of the reporting or its claims. Oh yea - that it was within the DIA that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld set up the Strategic Support Branch (Project Icon), a super-duper secret unit that he and the administration "used to bypass the limitations of the CIA after 9/11." I guess one of the limitations of the CIA is that they tend to acknowledge the lameness of their intel (apparently, another is that they don't like to torture people, so the DIA got that job too - but that's another story).
So Dick reads his boys' piece, and then asks the CIA to give him their analysis. According to the Senate report, in response the Director of Central Intelligence's Center for Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control (WINPAC) then issued an intelligence assessment with limited distribution which said
"information on the alleged uranium contract between Iraq and Niger comes exclusively from a foreign government service report that lacks crucial detail, and we are working to clarify the information and to determine whether it can be corroborated"
and
"U.S. diplomats say the French Government-led consortium that operated Niger's two uranium mines maintains complete control over uranium mining and yellowcake production." This is sent to the V.P's office, though we have no way of knowing if Cheaney read it.[SSCOI Report, pp 38-39]
The CIA seems to be thinking straight, anyway, and is trying to control the issue a bit, but over in Niger, US Embassy officials have apparently read the latest reports and are getting a little nervous at being the only naysayers:
Feb 18, 2002 - The US Embassy in Niger disseminates a cable stating that the issue of an alleged Iraq-Niger deal "warrants another look."
Already underway. 5 days earlier, on Feb 12, Valerie Plame had "offered up the name" of her husband, a former ambassador to Gabon, to her boss, the Deputy Chief of the CIA's Counterproliferation Division (CPD) as someone with contacts in the area who could be enlisted for a trip to Niger.
Feb 19, 2002 - Joe Wilson, former US Ambassador to Gabon and Valerie Plame's husband, meets with members of the CPD, analysts from the CIA and INR, and several people from the DO's Africa division. The two viewpoints expressed in notes from that meeting indicate that a) the story probably wasn't true because the French company (Areva/Cogema) appears "to have control of the [entire] uranium mining [process] and would seem to have little interest in selling to the Iraqi's" and b) if they were selling to the Iraqi's, they would be unlikely to admit it to a former US official. In either case, sending Wilson would probably garner no new information. But they decide to send him anyway. [SSCOI Report, pp 40-41]
Your tax dollars at work!
Feb 20, 2002 - the CPD provides talking points to Joe Wilson for his use in Niger. The points are general, asking Niger officials about any "countries of concern" that may have approached them about possible uranium deals, and asking mining officials to explain how they account for the material they produce. [SSCOI Report, p. 41]
Feb 21, 2002 - Joe Wilson leaves the U.S. for Niger.
Feb 24, 2002 - U.S. Ambassador to Niger Barbro Owens-Kirkpatrick cables U.S intelligence about a meeting between her, Niger's President Mamadou Tandja, Foreign Minister Aichatou Mindaoudou and US General Carlton Fulford. President Tandja assured her that Niger's uranium was "in safe hands." [SSCOI Report, p.42]
Feb 26, 2002- Joe Wilson arrives in Niger. He is told that since the Ambassador had just met with current government officials, he should restrict his meeting to former officials and the private sector. He meets with the former Nigerian Prime Minister, the former Minister of Mines and Energy, and other business contacts. During his de-briefing with Ambassador Owens-Kirkpatrick, they both agree that there is "nothing to the story." [SSCOI Report, p.42]
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, some of the spooks are starting to read their own reports.
March 2, 2002 - INR publishes an intelligence assessment titled, "Niger: Sale of Uranium to Iraq is Unlikely."
Finally! So the word is sent out to everyone, right? According to the Senate Report:
Department of State said the assessment was distributed through the routine distribution process in which intelligence documents are delivered to the White House situation room, but State did not provide the assessment directly to the Vice President in a special delivery." [SSCOI Report, p. 42]
Doh!
Apparently around this time ol' "Dead-Aim" Dick was wondering whatever happened to his update on the Niger thing - I guess he didn't have time to read his mail or check the situation room classified trash receptacles. He asks an aide to make inquiries.
March 5, 2002 - In response to the V.P.'s question, WINPAC gives his briefer an update which states that the foreign government service (those wacky Italians!) were "unable to provide new information, but continues to assess that its source is reliable."
So, rather than look around our own intelligence services for updates on the situation, WINPAC goes back to the source of the fake documents, who say they stand by their story. Who the fuck let the Italians have their own intelligence service anyway? But help is on the way! The update also states:
"The CIA will be debriefing a source who may have information related to the alleged sale."
Wilson! The man Dick Cheaney sent to Niger will soon be telling all!
March 5, 2002 - Wilson de-briefed in his home by two CIA officers from the DO.
March 8, 2002 - DO issues intelligence report based on Wilson's trip. Contains details of Wilson's meeting with Former Nigerian PM Mayaki where Mayaki describes June '99 encounter with businessmen (see above). Also says that Niger's former Minister for Energy and Mines stated that there were no sales outside of IAEA channels since mid-1980's. This official, Mai Manga, stated that an Iranian (with an `n') delegation was interested in purchasing 400 tons of yellowcake from Niger in 1998, but that no contract was ever signed. He also described the French mining consortium's security controls and felt that it would be almost impossible to arrange a clandestine shipment of uranium. [SSCOI Report, pp. 43-44].
I wonder how that Iranian nuclear project is going. Oh, no matter, I'm sure it's nothing. Anyway, now that Wilson has been de-briefed, everything will surely get cleared up.
From the Senate Report [p46]:
"Because CIA analysts did not believe that the report added any new information to clarify the issue, they did not use the report to produce any further analytical products or highlight the report for policymakers. For the same reason, CIA's briefer did not brief the Vice President on the report, despite the Vice President's previous questions about the issue."
Holy-Frickin-WHAT!!? I told you this would happen.
July 21, 2002 - 8 page memo prepared for Tony Blair called "Iraq: Conditions for Military Action" reveals that the Brits think the Bush Administration has given "little thought" to "the aftermath and how to shape it" regarding the impending war with Iraq.
This doesn't really have anything to do with Niger and yellowcake, but I've always wondered what kind of idiot Blair is that he could get briefs like this and still go along with the plan.
July 23, 2002 - Tony Blair and Bush meet in London. The minutes of this meeting become the infamous "Downing Street Memo's" which contain the observation that "intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy,"
Again, no direct connection to our subject, but our discussion certainly is an example of "fixed intelligence."And here's another one.
Oct 1, 2002 - The classified NIE is published and on Oct 4th a version is unclassified by the CIA entitled "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs". The unclassified version does not contain the bullet point (revealed to us in the July 2003 release) describing alleged attempts by Iraq to procure uranium yellowcake.
Reading over the unclassified version is a pretty shocking experience. If I were a senator or the guy with his finger on the big red `war' button, and that was the only intel I read, I'd be pretty convinced we should start bombing sooner rather than later too. But then I remembered that almost everything in it is wrong, and the shock faded into anger and despair.
Oct 2002 - date Italian reporter and her editors reportedly turned over their dossier of alleged Iraqi-Niger correspondence to the US Embassy in Rome. [Panorama]
Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States of America:
Jan 28, 2003 - President Bush says in SOTU "The British Government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa"
The sixteen words. Right wingnuts love to play semantic games and claim that nothing Joe Wilson found in Niger proves these words false. As has been shown on this page, this is essentially true - Wilson brought back nothing that would technically refute the idea that Iraq "sought" uranium from Africa. However, I hope I have shown that the question is not whether those words were semantically true, but how such minor, completely unsubstantiated evidence morph into an uncontested rationale for war.
Feb 2003 - US and Britaish intelligence give purported Niger/Iraq documents to UN inspectors.
What the hell took so long?
March 7, 2003 - Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, deems the Niger/Iraq documents "not authentic."
You gotta love the irony that after all this - it's the hated United Nations that gives the definitive answer on the documents. And what are we paying our guys? No time for that, it's off to war:
March 20, 2003 - US Armed forces begin invasion of Iraq.
Would you like awe with that shock? For a couple of months, war opponents are silenced while we all become unwilling imbeds in a hi-tech, televised war. But then, when no WMD's are found, critics start going over the pre-war claims, and things aren't adding up.
June 12, 2003 - Walter Pincus first breaks the story of a "former ambassador's" secret trip to Niger to get information about a possible sale of yellowcake to Iraq. He does not name Wilson, but does say that this trip de-bunked the story of the sale.
We don't know for sure, but this may have been the first indication to the Administration that Wilson was preparing to expose the misinformation surrounding the African yellowcake story. In any case, things got busy at the White House.
June 12, 2003 - I. `Scooter' Libby meets with his boss, V.P. Dick Cheaney, who instructs him to reveal classified information from the OCT 2002 NIE in order to support the contention that Iraq tried to buy uranium from Niger. He also tells Libby that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA. Cheaney seems to be aware that critics of the intel, including Joe Wilson, are mounting an attack. Libby initially balks at revealing classified information and consults a lawyer about his authorization to do so. [court papers filed April 6, 2006 by prosecutor Fitzgerald]. Libby also spoke with CIA and State Dept contacts who re-iterated the idea that Plame was responsible for sending Wilson to Niger. [WaPo]
June ??, 2003 - President Bush gives the `OK' to declassifying portions of the NIE, allowing Libby to pass the info along to reporters.
Still unclear is the legality of passing along classified information verbally before an official declassification is prepared.
June 23, 2003 - Judith Miller meets with Libby, writes "Valerie Flame" in her notebook.
July 6, 2003 - NY Times publishes Op/Ed piece authored by Joe Wilson recounting his trip to Niger and his astonishment that the President had mentioned the yellowcake story in the SOTU.
July 7, 2003 - Sec of State Colin Powell is given a memo regarding the uranium claim and Wilson's trip to Niger. Passages of the memo mention Valerie Plame's role in introducing her husband to the investigation. Also, the White House
retracts the 16 words from the SOTU, calling them "incorrect." [CBS News]
Nothing to see here, move along.
July 7, 2003 - Libby tells Ari Fleischer that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA and notes that this information is not widely known [WaPo]
I wonder why know one knows this? Doesn't everybody openly discuss state secrets all the time?
July 8, 2003 - Columnist Robert Novak talks to White House adviser Karl Rove and says he's heard that Wilson became involved in the uranium investigation through his wife at the CIA. Rove says "I heard that, too," though he does not mention her name or that she is a secret agent. A lawyer involved in the leak probe says Rove told investigators he first heard about Wilson's wife from another reporter, but her name came to him through Novak. [CBS News]
This is our first indication that Rove was involved in the smearing of Wilson and Plame.Digby has argued Rove's fingerprints are all over this, as it's his MO to attack the messenger. I'd have to agree.
July 8, 2003 - Libby provides new details about Plame to Miller. [WaPo]
July 10, 2003 - Libby speaks with Russert.
July 11, 2003 - Time magazine reporter Matthew Cooper calls Rove to learn more about Wilson. Rove tells him neither CIA director George Tenet nor the vice president was "responsible" for the trip to Niger. He also tells him Wilson's wife works on WMD for "the agency," which Cooper takes to mean the CIA. Rove does not mention her covert status and ends the call with, "I've already said too much." [CBS News]
Libby and Rove, workin the phones.
July 12, 2003 - Walter Pincus speaks to a government official, who discusses Wilson's wife and says the Niger trip was ignored by the White House because it was a "boondoggle." [CBS News]
Of course, the official didn't explain why they ignored their own intelligence analysts too.
July 14, 2003 - Robert Novak reveals Valerie Plame's identity as a CIA employee in an op/ed column in the Washington Post. Money quote, "Wilson never worked for the CIA, but his wife, Valerie Plame, is an Agency operative on weapons of mass destruction."
Dum-da-da DUMMM!
July 17, 2003 - Time magazine publishes "A War on Wilson?" which states, "some government officials have noted to Time in interviews, that Wilson's wife, Valerie Plame, is a CIA official who monitors the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. These officials have suggested that she was involved in her husband's being dispatched Niger." [CBS News]
Ok, the White House Smear Team has been called into action, now all they have to do is cover their asses.
July 18, 2003 - Key judgments and additional paragraphs of the original classified Oct 2002 NIE are unclassified by the CIA. The key judgments contain no information regarding Iraqi attempts to buy uranium, but the additional paragraphs consist only of the specific paragraphs which describe these attempts. They contain 2 bullet points:
*A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001, Niger planned to send several tons of (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement.
</o>
*Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo.</o>
There have been some reports, based on Libby's testimony, that he was supposed to present these paragraphs as part of the so-called "key judgments" to journalists. The really fascinating thing is that by virtue of the fact the only part of the main body of the NIE that got released are the specific paragraphs that refer to the Niger story, this was clearly an attempt to bolster support for the 16 words, and thereby discredit Wilson.
Due to air-tight firewalls that protect us from dangerous exposure to media from foreign lands, these stories didn't get much notice at the time:
July 16, 2003 - five images of forges Iraqi-Niger correspondence are published in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica,
July 24, 2003 - Panorama, an Italian media organization, publishes an article by Elisabetta Burba in which she tells her version of how she got the Niger documents, realized they were false, and on advice from her editor-in-chief,
turned copies over to the US Embassy in Rome in October 2002 (recognize that date at all?) [cryptome].
Now just imagine if the same week that the Administration was formally declassifying the intelligence that showed just how fucked up the vetting process was, all the major media in the US were showing pictures of the fake documents that the intelligence was based on. No, better to start closed-door grand jury investigations that will guarantee the facts stay buried until at least after the election.
Sept 26, 2003 - The Justice Department launches investigation into the leak of Valerie Plame's name and status as a CIA operative, a crime under the Intelligence Identities Protection Act.
Sept. 28, 2003 - The Washington Post says that two top White House officials called at least a half-dozen journalists and revealed Plame's identity and occupation.
As of this date, the identity of the second official, after Libby, remains speculative. Unless it's Rove.
Sept 30, 2003 - Bush says, "There are too many leaks of classified information in Washington. There's leaks at the executive branch. There's leaks in the legislative branch. There's just too many leaks. And if there is a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is. And if the person has violated law, the person will be taken care of."
When is a leak not a leak? When the president says you can do it! I wonder if "taken care of" means pardoned and given a medal?
Dec 30, 2003 - Attorney General John Ashcroft recuses himself from the case due to conflict of interest.US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is given the case.
Merry Fitzmas!I just wish the guy would hurry it up!
June 2004 - CIA re-releases an unclassified version of the Oct 2002 NIE. This is essentially a redacted version of the July 2003 release, containing all the pages of the NIE, just whited out.
July 2004 - Senate Select Committee on Intelligence releases `Report on the US Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq.' Among its conclusions are that the NIE "interpret(s) ambiguous evidence as conclusively indicative of a WMD program."
My favorite part is the section describing the British White paper of 24 September, 2002 which begins on page 49 and consists of 2 completely redacted pages, with the exception of the following paragraph,
"On September 24, 2002 the British Government published a White Paper on Iraq's WMD stating, `there is intelligence that Iraq has sought the supply of significant quantities of uranium, from Africa."
July 18, 2005 - Bush, "I would like this to end as quickly as possible..."
So would we, George, so would we.
This diary was first published at Progressive Blend Radio