the gambit, the prize, the plan - for Iran

From globalsecurity
I found the following information (summarized by me)

Bushehr - in Khuzestan - is not only home of Bushehr Nuclear facility but is also the location of Iran's nuclear energy college. In addition it is one of Iran's major cities and chief ports.

The mountains of Zagros are natural palisades that defend Iran from Iraq.

Khuzestan is the only large flat piece of land west of the Zargos mountains.

If bushco hits Iran here they could quickly take Khuzestan. they would control 90% of Iran's oil and substantial portions of the country's water supply/electrical capacity.  (30% of Iran's surface water supply is located in Khuzestan)  
For it's natural resources and location Khuzestan is pivotal to Iran's economy and accessability to the outside world.
Iran announced in 1999 "the largest oil discovery in 30 years" found in Azadegan in southwestern Khuzestan - a few miles east of the border with Iraq.
In '04 Iran's oil minister announced that the country's oil reserves had increased again with new discoveries in Khuzestan.

As you can see this region would be their logical next step....
Anex 90% of Iran's oil the prize
Destroy 2 of "Iran's weapons of mass destruction threats" the cover
Protect a large section of the Persian Gulf's oil routes [Iran's threat to block passage by sinking boats if hit by US]
& severely cripple any Iranian petro euro cartel. planned to open in March [the real reason]
cripple Iran economically and militarily by denying it the control of it's oil. [& water & electricity]

& besides - it's already named after him. [bushehr....bush here]

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•  But the Bushehr installation ...

  ...(still under construction) isn't even a reasonable target since any attempt to build nuclear weapons would not need or even use materiel from that operation. An attack on that site would do exactly zero to stop for one minute any putative nuclear weaponization plan by Iran. Most of the likely targets are deep within Iran.

  by Meteor Blades on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 08:27:41 PM PDT

  •  that would be true

    if the bush admin lived and worked by the rules of reality. besides Bushehr has the only nuclear energy college. bush could likely paint the college as some type of "axes of evil" wmd research facility or whatever nighmare scenario pops into their head that they think the American public will believe.

    by cognitive dissonance on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 08:35:10 PM PDT

  •  mb, you are thinking, here -

    that is why your argument won't wash!  

    you used the word "reasonable" in context with people who aren't!

    there was nothing "reasonable" about attacking iraq!  there was nothing "reasonable" about linking bin laden with hussein.

    there was nothing "reasonable" about giving over to the tribal leaders the task of taking down bin laden...

    there is nothing "reasonable" about attacking iran - but the neos believe in it - planned for it - desire it - all written about in pnac.

    the end game isn't to take out the nuclear facilities or capability - the end game is to get into iran - and build their empire!

    the only problem with all of this is there is nothing "reasonable" about their stated outcome - there were no flowers for us in iraq, there will be no "acceptance" of our spreading our tentacles to other oil nations.  china has too much invested in their future to allow the u.s. to totally disrupt the flow of oil worldwide.  the rest of the world has too much at stake.

    i firmly believe the world is watching us to see where this nation goes in nov. - and if it doesn't go in the right correct direction, there are going to be massive economic consequences that could take down this nation in a millisecond!

    already, bonddad has been talking of our precarious economic position - the european markets are steering clear of our stocks - the currency shifting toward euros could wreak havoc to the dollar.  would the world do it?  

    you bet!  if world destabilization due to oil disruption by a u.s. powergrab looks eminent!

    by edrie on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 10:01:35 PM PDT

•  Three words: Russia. India. China.

  Iran has friends in 2006 that Iraq wish it had in 2003.

  Russia, with Chinese backing, might decide that Central Asia and Caspian Sea energy isn't for sharing with the West anymore.

  And any invasion of Iran in the west runs a real risk of seeing the peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan first isolated, then starved of resupply, then picked off by hostile Afghan factions (read: almost all of them), with nowhere for trapped forces in Afghanistan to go (see: map of 'friendly' countries surrounding Afghanistan).

  Short form: Any invasion of Iran is likely to ante up every single American and allied soldier in Afghanistan.  It will most certainly start a world war.

  by cskendrick on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 08:31:30 PM PDT

  •  Since when

    have the consequences of their actions ever stopped this bunch? Hell, when have they ever thought about the consequences?

    by Steven D on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 09:14:25 PM PDT

    •  since when has bush even SEEN

      the consequences of his actions (except at coretta scott king's funeral - and i am SURE karl has "splained" that one away as just "dumb n*ggers" talking!)

      nope, bush has NEVER had to see, much less LIVE with ANY consequence of his actions - ever!

      by edrie on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 10:06:48 PM PDT

•  This situation is way too complicated...

  Its obvious that a led invasion of Iran (without the backing of China and Russia) would start a world war.  Even if it didn't start a wouldn't war, it still wouldn't be worth it.  And, I'm sure Bush is smart enough to realize that the US would lose any war in Iran, or at the very least have many, many more casualties than we've suffered in Iraq.  The "Prize" is not worth the loss, even to somebody like Bush.  
  It'd be suicide.

  by HC Penniwicket on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 08:38:19 PM PDT

  •  Woudn't=world

    by HC Penniwicket on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 08:38:51 PM PDT

    •  Methinks it is an error

      to believe Bu$hco will use anything resembling rational decision making here.

      Flip this rock over and the criminal regime gets the war they need to cover the corruption and scandal surrounding the Rethugs.

      They would also get a draft, to defend the troops that get cut off by no longer friendly forces...

      and...unemployment, corruption and civil unrest plague both the Chinese and Russian governments...a little war would provide them both with an opportunity to crack down.

      by Gegner on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 09:08:37 PM PDT

      •  unfortunately, I think you may be right n/t

        by V in Vermont on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 09:22:38 PM PDT

      •  not to mention, a great distraction

        here at home - where poll numbers are in the toilet, approval rating is non-existent, elections are looming and he has not only spent all his political capitol, he has charged up humongous debt on that capitol from which he now needs daddy's "friends" to once again bail him out.

        yep, it's about time for a NEW war, alrighty - cuz, who WOULDN'T support a "war" (p)resident!

        by edrie on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 10:14:01 PM PDT

      •  Israel has to be taken into account,

        which is something of a relief, actually.

        Bushco etc. is likely (but only likely, far from definitely) going to follow Israeli wishes on this.  I certainly f****ng hope they are following Israeli intelligence over american intel on this as well.  I'm not sure what Israel wants to do here, but I think Israel is going to be much, much more realistic about consequences.  I imagine that they will want to see how covert actions play out before they move to overt action, if you will.

        That said, I don't really think any scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

        by Unduna on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 11:04:42 PM PDT

  •  since when has bush CARED

    about how many soldiers have died - or how many iraqis have died - or how many civilians have died.

    remember, this is the man who mocked carla faye tucker before he denied clemency!  (not to mention, the kid who blew up frogs!)

    bush has NO capacity for compassion - he is for one thing - himself - his ego - his own agenda, which is padding his pockets and ego!

    by edrie on Sat Feb 11, 2006 at 10:10:19 PM PDT

  •  You are talking about bush remember..

    You are talking about bush..He is sadisic, he says god bless you and stabs you in the back..Bush in  my opinion, is wagging the dog with iran to deflect from us getting closer to what he has been doing...Too many people know and are speaking out..He knows it will all come out, so he has to do something before mar.20..Nixon tried the same thing before his impeachment, but sane heads prevailed..I hope we have sane heads in congress now...m at least enough to stop these madman war profiteers..

    by bayside on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 04:14:17 AM PDT

•  Khuzestan oil fields have always been the target

  The British provided battle plans to Iraq as the Americans provided arms in 1981 so that Saddam could seize the Khuzestan oil fields.  These fields have been the target for the last 30 years, and remain the primary target today.  

  The nuclear stuff is just sand to throw in the eyes of a gullible and easily frightened public.  Hey, WMDs worked with Saddam, didn't they?  The target was always the oil.

  by LondonYank on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 01:30:49 AM PDT