The Generic Congressional Ballot and What It Means, Part 2

I attempted to analyze the generic Congressional Ballot poll from Pew and what it means.

I detailed my methods and covered the Midwest here.

I focused on the Northeast today: Maryland, Delaware, West Virgnia(wasn't sure if this belonged here), Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine.

As I said yesterday: I assume the distrct-by-district swings will be the same. This is a perhaps flawed assumption, but it is reliable enough to give us a baseline. If you feel this assumption is flawed to the point that my diary is pointless, feel free NOT to read on.

Again, of course, my methods aren't perfect. The swing will not be the same in each district, the candidates will be different, GOTV ops, and fundraising, as well as the political climate and other district-specific conditions. But it's a start. I haven't figured out to quantatively include those yet.

Results on the flip.

In the Northeast in 2004, we beat the Republicans 12,059,084 to 9,706,982, a margin of 2,352,152, or 11.8%.

The Pew Poll has us up here 58-28. With undecideds split even, that's an astonishing 65-35, a swing of 9.6% to our side from '04.

Results from MA-01, MA-02, MA-08, MA-09, NY-06, PA-12 and PA-14 are not included in the above results, since John Olver,  Richard Neal, Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, Greg Meeks, John Murtha, and Mike F. Doyle did not have any opponents in '04.

The formula is also revised like this from yesterday:

An open seat in 2006 means that the margin will be 15% of what it was in 2004, as opposed to a flat 5% decrease.

The Results:

Pickups, 3:

PA-06, Jim Gerlach, 7.64%
CT-04, "Moderate" Chris Shays, 4.92%
CT-02, Rob Simmons, 1.23%

Close Seats, 8:

NY-26, Tom Reynolds (The NRCC Chair), -1.65%
NY-29, Randy Kuhl, -6.18%
NJ-07, Mike Ferguson, -6.33%
WV-02, Shelley Moore Capito, -6.79%
PA-08, Mike Fitzpatrick, -7.54%
NJ-05, Scott Garrett, -7.75%
NY-13, Vito Fossella, -8.39%
PA-07, Curt Weldon, -9.01%

Barely Missing the Cut, 3:

PA-15, Charlie Dent, -10.08%
PA-03, Phil English, -10.62%
NH-02, Charlie Bass, -11.91%

Defense, 5

NY-11, Major Owens, 5.43% (I'm really not actually worried about this Brooklyn district.)
MD-03, Ben Cardin, 5.99% (Least Democratic of the 6 Maryland D Seats)
VT-01, Bernie Sanders, 8.54% (Not worried either)
NJ-13, Bob Menendez, 9.64% (See above)
NY-27, Brian Higgins, 15.93% (Only because he's a freshman)

The map, for your viewing pleasure:
Dark Blue = Safe Democrat
Medium Blue = Defense
Light Blue = Pickup
Light Red = Close Seat
Medium Red = Misses the Cut
Dark Red = Safe Republican

Addendum to yesterday's entry:

With the revised formulas, yesterdays pickup's are reduced to 2:

Mark Kennedy, MN-06
and
Mike Sodrel, IN-09

IL-06(Henry Hyde) and IA-01(Jim Leach) are added to the "close" category, as is WI-08(Mark Green retiring; running for Governor).

Defense Seats are:
OH-06, Ted Strickland, 5.36%
OH-13, Sherrod Brown, 6.49% (Not worried about this one)
IL-08, Melissa Bean, 11.77% (Pissed people off with CAFTA, too)
SD-AL, Stephanie Herseth, 15.88% (John Thune, the Daschle-killer is gone, so I think she's safe)
IA-03, Len Boswell, 18.69%
IN-07, Julia Carson, 19.26%

Missing the Cut:
NE-03, Tom Osborne, -10.51% (Not happening. Don't even dream...it's a flaw in the formula.)
MI-09, Joe Knollenberg, -10.93%
OH-01, Steve Chabot, -11.37%

Another map:
(Note: Ugh, Pixelation)

Next: The West. Some charts and individual district info after the West and the South.

•  This is interesting ...

  Issues:

  Cardin -- Cardin is running for Senate.  Open seat?  How will that affect the situation.

  MD Senate:  This might be a much tougher race. Steele will pull Black votes (not majority but some) and it is unclear who the Democratic candidate will be.  Requires closer watching than we are giving it ...

  by besieged by bush on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:09:51 AM PDT

  •  MD-03.

    The 5.99% projected margin is accounting for the fact that Cardin is running for Senate.

    If the seat weren't open, the projected margin would be 39.91%.

    And the Senate race will be tough. I'd be one pissed off person if my home state elects its first Republican Senator in 20 years (and even then, it was liberal Republican Charles Mathias).

    by jeff06dem on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:20:53 AM PDT

    •  RE Senate ...

      Agree with you about the Senate. But, too many people I know who have been active MD Democrats for decades are concerned about this race.

      Tried to recruit in MD suburbs Friday / Saturday for getting people to volunteer for Webb (people who worked polls / GOTV in VA in 2004 assuming that MD would be blue), and all (in total over ten people) said that they were reserving their efforts to MD in 2006 to try to keep Steele from winning.

      Now, as per last week, Steele might prove himself able to put two feet in his mouth enough to make it a D landslide, but too many people that I respect are telling me that they are worried.

      by besieged by bush on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 02:04:18 PM PDT

      •  I threw...

        $20.01 Ben Cardin just last week, I'm worried as hell...of course, I've only been a proud Maryland Democrat for what...5 years(I was 11). My friends (who are all just turning 18), have heard me relentlessly urging them to register to vote, and to absentee from college...lets hope they listen.

        I'm also interested in being a precinct captain for my precicnt(Montgomery 04-19), which is a marginally Kerry(59-41). Anything to make Cardin(who I'm hoping is the nominee) and O'Malley(same) win.

        by jeff06dem on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 05:05:17 PM PDT

        •  Hats off to you ...

          I worked precincts at your age but wasn't a chair ...

          My concern is VA -- where I think Webb might have the ability to knock Allen down a peg or even out of the Senate. ...

          by besieged by bush on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 08:14:20 PM PDT

          •  I sure hope Webb can...

            knock Allen down. Even a close race would make Allen damaged goods for '08 Presidential race.

            by jeff06dem on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 08:15:53 PM PDT

        •  absentee voting

          I'm urging all my friends here in western CT to do the same.  I'm a high school senior, going to DC next year, so my vote will obviously count more up here than it would down there.  

          by maxgray7 on Mon Feb 13, 2006 at 09:14:00 AM PDT

          •  Cool...

            American, huh? That's what...5 miles down The Pike then Mass. Ave for me. I'm still wondering what to do about voting, but I can't vote this cycle anyway. I've pretty much told my friends unless they're going to Pennsylvania(Santorum and Rendell), Missouri(McCaskill), or Ohio(DeWine, Blackwell) to absentee.

            by jeff06dem on Mon Feb 13, 2006 at 10:47:18 AM PDT

•  Interesting but

  don't really think there will be an election.

  by Lasthorseman on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:12:43 AM PDT

•  shouldn't you

  count the vote totals from 2002 as opposed to 2004, since it is a midterm election, and obviously the number of voters will decrease substantially.

  by michael1104 on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:15:23 AM PDT

  •  I used percentages, but true.

    Although mainly I used 2004 because there were more districts that actually had candidates, and '04 has the new Texas districts after the DeLaymander. Although Georgia'll be screwed up when I get to it after its own mid-decade redistricting.

    Again, commments/tips appreciated, questions/suggestions even more so.

    by jeff06dem on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:18:06 AM PDT

•  Keep up the good work n/t

  by Cambridgemac on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:23:47 AM PDT

•  What it means to me:

  Get your butt to the local party HQ.

  If you are not in a place with a close race,  start building the infrastructure so it can be close in the future.

  If you are in a place with a close race, puch it over the top.

  by demondeac on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:28:40 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for the scoreboard

    Scoreboards are good for fans of the game.

    What I'm saying, is be a player, too!

    Players do not look up at the scoreboard and quit playing their best whether they are winning or losing.

    Our team needs more players!

    by demondeac on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:31:27 AM PDT

•  NY-11

  probably a long shot, but Owens district is not necessarily a lock for the Dems, but not in the way you think.

  Chris Owens (the incumbent's son), will be running in the dem primary, but he will likely get the Green Party line as well (and perhaps the WFP).  Owens has an uphill fight against a couple of Brooklyn machine dems, and if he does get the Green line, it sets up a possibility that he could run against the Dem in the general (and win).  Of course, he's a registered D, so I;m sure the press will try to make it out that the D's retain the seat, but he could very well be the first G in congress.

  by green in brooklyn on Sun Feb 12, 2006 at 09:31:20 AM PDT