TX:28 Early Voting Totals

The common wisdom is that in order to overturn the results of the last cycle (when he lost by 58 votes), Ciro Rodriguez will have to do a better job of turning out the vote in his home base of Bexar County (San Antonio), and hope that the opposite happens in Webb County (Laredo), the home of closet Republican Henry Cuellar. Well, early voting is over in the primaries, and the totals for both counties are in.

See the results below the fold.

Early voting is a good indicator of the total turn out because normally 65% of the voters in the Democratic primaries cast their vote early. In Webb County, the early vote totals were 2.5% below the early votes cast in the last cycle. The opposite is true in Bexar County, where there is an early vote increase of 7.3% from those cast in 2004. Laredo's decrease is especially noteworthy because its booming population growth allowed for a 4% increase in the number of registered voters for this election, versus the numbers registered in March of 2004.

My analysis is that there will be a decrease in the overall number of voters in Laredo in this cycle, from those that voted in 2004, because a stirring race for county sheriff in 2004 tweaked the turn out in the last cycle. The decrease in early voters in Laredo this cycle, despite a significant increase in registered voters, tends to prove my hypothesis.

Another point worthy of discussion is based on the fact that the 28th CD takes in only a part of Bexar and Webb Counties. This cycle, a race pulling out many voters in Webb County is for an open county commissioner's seat, contested by 6 candidates. Unfortunately for the sell-out Cuellar, this commissioner's district is wholly outside the 28th CD. On the other hand, the race turning out the most voters in Bexar County is for a highly-contested state senate seat between Madla and Uresti (both San Antonio home-boys), in a state senatorial district which overlaps the 28th CD in Bexar County. Accordingly, in my estimation the gap between the 2.5% decrease in early votes in Webb County versus the 7.3% increase in Bexar County, is actually greater when you consider only the voters eligible to vote in the 28th CD race (those totals are not available).

But we've only won half the battle. The marbles are there to pick up on election day this Tuesday. South San Antonio is a great place to phone bank, or to hit the streets. It tends to be a lower middle class, elderly community, overwhelmingly Mexican-American, which cherishes being asked to vote. So please google up the Rodriguez web page and volunteer. Don't speak Spanish? Don't worry, there will usually be someone in the household who speaks English. And if not, you only need to know a few words - "Por Favor Salga a votar el Martes" (please vote on Tuesday). Or "Por favor salga a votar hoy (please vote today). If you're calling a South San voter, it's equivalent to a Ciro voter. There's no other races to distract our attention this week. Let's all pool our resources and do the Republic a huge favor by replacing a Bush-Democrat with a real and progressive Democrat in Ciro Rodriguez. We can make the difference in this one.  

•  Nice analysis

  Nice diary - recommend

  by George on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:26:18 AM PDT

  •  Thank You George

    I'm glad you liked it.

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:30:44 AM PDT

•  Nice Analysis

  Good work. Good luck. I am many states away, but have been following this race. I have visted both canidates wedsites, but the trully best comparison was the BUSH HUG. That's pretty much all I needed to know in order to cast a vote, if I was eligible.

  by FloridaVoter on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:33:46 AM PDT

•  I concur with the others

  great diary. recommended.

  by jj32 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:40:31 AM PDT

•  Good Luck!

  Recommended diary in hopes that more people in Texas will read and help in the phone banks etc.

  Good luck in the primary. Let's hope you (we) get a real Democratic candidate for the district.

  by MO Blue on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:51:29 AM PDT

•  thanks for the local picture

  Sometimes we forget how much of a difference a local race makes, like the one for sheriff you mentioned above.

  Kerry lost Iowa by about 12,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast. With a margin that small, any number of things could have made the difference. Here in the Des Moines suburbs, we had a hotly contested state Senate race in which the GOP candidate was mayor of heavily Republican Urbandale. He won, and I heard that turnout in Urbandale was ridiculously high (on the order of 85-90 percent).

  Also, gambling referenda on the ballot in three counties to the west and south of Des Moines got the religious right all riled up. They had very high turnout and defeated the casino in all three counties--no doubt driving up Bush's vote totals as well.

  This is why is pays to work hard at the local level and to think ahead about ballot measures at the county and state level. These things can really swing elections.

  by desmoinesdem on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:54:11 AM PDT

•  Great Update

  Thanks.  I've been following this race from afar, too, and I appreciate getting the early vote totals. A diary last week talked about a 28% increase in Bexar but it must have slowed down.

  This is a general question: when I see turnout numbers of 10% for a contested primary, I'm shocked. In my state, 25 - 30% turnout would be more typical.  That's still low, IMO.

  Do you have any sense why so many people in this district don't vote?  There certainly has been enough money spent on this election, and you note in the diary that it's solid Dem and "cherishes being asked to vote".

  I'm sure that low turnout isn't unique to TX-28, but do you have ideas about this?  Just wondering.
  

  by maryru on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:02:34 PM PDT

•  This is great!

  Thanks for writing about the turnout.  We are busting our collective butts to pull out the votes we need in the 28th district on Tuesday, which is why posting on my end has been so sporadic!  

  But great things are happening.  If you are around the district, you should stop in to volunteer.

  For more info - call the office - 210.928.CIRO and ask for Debbie!

  by Tracy Joan on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:04:29 PM PDT

  •  Doing The Same In Webb Myself Tracy

    Keep up the good work. I'm spreading Henry's colors far and wide in Webb, and getting my friends and neighbors in the 28th to come out for Ciro.

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:15:24 PM PDT

  •  Good luck, Tracy

    and to the whole campaign.  Hope you get all the help you need over the next couple of days.

    by maryru on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:28:54 PM PDT

    •  Thanks!

      But really, it's Ciro - he is the reason behind all of this!

      Sidenote:  Last night after a staff meeting we all went out to eat.  Ciro came in after meeting with some local groups and the whole restaurant applauded him when he walked in the door.  It was great.  He really loves the people here and it seems they love him right back.  Several folks came over to say hello, including an elderly couple that came over and spoke to him and Mrs. Rodriguez.  Then another patron sent a mariachi band over to play Ciro a tune.

      by Tracy Joan on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:35:18 PM PDT

•  Important to note

  how crucial this primary is. Cuellar was one of only 15 House Democrats to vote for CAFTA. Rodriguez would have opposed CAFTA. The final vote was 217-215. Therefore, if Ciro had been in there instead of Cuellar, the result would have been a 216-216 tie, meaning CAFTA would not have passed.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:14:16 PM PDT

  •  Or at least

    another vulnerable Republican incumbent would have been forced to vote for CAFTA, helping the Democrats chances of taking backing the House.  Cuellar has been screwing Democrats, progressives, and working people in numerous ways...

    by peaceandprogress on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:05:52 PM PDT

•  Excellent! n/t

  by x on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:15:34 PM PDT

•  how does this jive with the SA article?

  http://www.mysanantonio.com/...

  by slinkerwink on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:19:41 PM PDT

  •  What Part Of The Article?

    Pointy-head Gambitta saying that Laredo always turns out? If you consider 35% in 2004 a good turn out, as Gambitta states, I guess he's right. But even at that rate, Ciro lost by only 58 votes. Laredo will turn out less this time than the last cycle, as indicated by the early votes. San Antonio should do better, again as shown by the early vote turn-out. Moreover, Laredo is now informed of Henry's record. I don't see him doing any better than the 85% of Laredo votes that he garnered in 2004. Shoot, even if he was JFK, he couldn't do better. Down is the only way he can go in Laredo.

    So what exactly do you not see my diary out of jive with your article?  

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:38:24 PM PDT

    •  I'm not sure if the vote totals

      in Bexar County might go in Rodriguez's favor, but I think a run-off is much more likely.

      I'm very suspect of the poll published by Pineda on behalf of the Rodriguez campaign because as Pineda showed himself in a comment here a few weeks ago, the poll questions he used were very much in the style of a push poll. I don't think that poll really is an indicator of how the race is going, which is why I hoped there would be an independent poll.

      From what I hear in San Antonio from family members there, there's more support for Cuellar in terms of votes than is thought to be here.

      People are unnecessarily inflating the polls, the voter turnout, when the reality might turn out differently from what everyone expects on Tuesday after the votes are totaled.

      Also, in the San Antonio article, the Cuellar campaign says that they're over 50. Where did they get that information from? Their own internal poll? Why haven't they published that?

      I'm not rooting for Cuellar to win, but I do want people to step back and assess this race realistically.

      by slinkerwink on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:43:58 PM PDT

      •  There's No Time To Figure What's Real Or Not...

        ...Too busy making calls

        by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:07:37 PM PDT

      •  Push Poll?

        I'm very suspect of the poll published by Pineda on behalf of the Rodriguez campaign because as Pineda showed himself in a comment here a few weeks ago, the poll questions he used were very much in the style of a push poll.

        Are you talking about this? Yes, those are negative, slanted questions - but were they asked before or after the horserace question?

        Turns out, they were asked after. I've seen the entire October poll, and the first fifteen questions are all table-setters - demographic stuff, what issues do you care about, favorability ratings, etc.

        Question 16 is a straight horserace question. That's where the 45-30 number comes from. None of the questions before that are in the least bit pushy.

        Then, after some pro-Ciro message testing questions are asked, the poll re-asks the topline question. Then you get 50-29 in favor of Ciro.

        Then, the poll asks some anti-Cuellar message testing questions (some of which are linked in the JPG), and then another re-ask of the topline q. At that point, the topline is 53-23 in favor of Ciro.

        If Pineda really wanted to hype questionable numbers, he would have put out either of those last two sets. Except he didn't - he put out the first, "unadulterated" set.

        Just because a poll contains what might seem like "pushy" questions doesn't mean it's a push poll. A smart pollster conducts a poll so that he can get an untainted, synchronic view of how things stand now (the 45-30), plus he also tests how certain messages will play to see if they'll redound to his candidate's favor (in this case, the answer was yes).

        I have every reason to believe the February poll was conducted in the exact same way.

        by DavidNYC on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 06:16:55 PM PDT

•  Awesome...

  So, what were the vote totals?

  Just direct me to the line where you provide them, 'cause I'm not seein' 'em. :)

  by cskendrick on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:33:33 PM PDT

  •  I'll Cite Them For You

    7.3% percent INCREASE in early vote totals for Bexar County from March 2004. 2.5% DECREASE in early vote totals for Webb County.

    Clear enough?

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:42:02 PM PDT

    •  The title of your diary is misleading ...

      i took 'early voting totals' to mean you had the totals that each candidate got, not statistics on turnout.

      by spacebaby on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:56:25 PM PDT

      •  Sorry For The Confusion Baby...

        ...but I don't think the title is misleading. Vote totals means vote totals -- like in aggregate. Vote totals does not mean vote results, as you inferred. Those don't come out until after 7pm this Tuesday, when the polls close, as is the custom in all of our elections.

        by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:03:53 PM PDT

    •  Saw those changes already.

      Now all I need are the registered voter populations for each county, and I can write my own diary.

      by cskendrick on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 12:59:49 PM PDT

      •  For Webb County...

        ...the total registered voters are 97,686 as of last month (versus 93,239 in February of 2004). For Bexar County it's 805,161, as of 4 months ago.

        by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:13:01 PM PDT

        •  Which greatly enhances the quality

          of your argument, in that knowing the actual basis involved, we are in a better position to judge the relative advantage of the trend.

          by cskendrick on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 04:14:30 PM PDT

          •  Early Votes Cast

            By Democrats in Bexar and Webb Counties:

            Bexar: 16,226 in person thru 3/3. Plus 1,443 by mail thru 3/2.

            Webb:  17,893 in person and by mail thru 3/2. Friday's numbers are not posted yet.

            Sources: Texas Sec. of State; Bexar and Webb County Clerks.

            by maryru on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 07:02:35 PM PDT

            •  Missing The Most Important Day for Webb Mary...

              ...Friday. Webb County logged a total of 21,234 early votes and mail-ins, as of the end of early voting on Friday. This number was posted by the Elections Administrator. His office was open on Saturday.

              Thanks for the mail-in numbers for Bexar County. I wonder if these numbers were factored in by the newspaper account which published a 7.3% increase in early voting in Bexar.

              by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 07:11:11 PM PDT

              •  That's a big difference

                in votes for Webb!  I searched the internet after reading today's diary and could not find "final" counts for either county.  I posted those to try to answer an earlier comment asking for hard numbers.

                I truly hope that the surge in voters in Webb County was because of the hard work you folks have been doing for Ciro. I'm far away and could only contribute a little money, but this race has captured my interest.  No cell phone or I'd help more.

                Apologies if my comments came off as negative - they are most defintively not - I'm just a bit compulsive about statistics and percentages and like to see the data down to the nth degree.

                Thanks for all you've done and I'm hoping for a win on the 7th, for your district and for all of us.

                by maryru on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 09:24:16 PM PDT

•  caution

  Early vote turnout trends do not necessarily carry over onto election day, precisely because the uptick in turnout in Bexar may only signal that Ciro's camp has been turning out their people more effectively early ...and so there may be fewer Ciro supporters who have yet to vote. (This is what happened here in Clark County (NV) in Nov 2004; we had big #s in early voting, readjusted our E-day projections corresponding upward and consequently a lot o precincts with high early vote turnout "underperformed" on election day.

  For this 7.5% statistic to be meaningful, we'd have to know what % of Ciro's identified supporters have already voted; that is, does the campaign have lots more "1s" to bring to the polls (which would be a good sign) on Tuesay?

  by desmoulins on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:42:18 PM PDT

  •  i should add

    that early vote has tended to attract much higher %s than election day turnout in urban areas (such as in this instance Bexar) and lower %s than e-day turnout in rural areas.

    So I read those -2.5% and +7.5% trends with caution.

    by desmoulins on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:43:26 PM PDT

  •  A Couple Of Things

    Bexar County's early vote count is a measly 3% of its total registered voters. There's still almost 750,000 registered voters out there. Granted only a fraction are eligible to vote in the 28th CD, but there's still a huge pool of voters for Ciro's campaign to work with. Moreover, almost all of the South San voters are Ciro voters (1s). He took his San Antonio home with almost 80% of the votes last cycle. That huge pool of voters eligible to vote this Tuesday is made up of almost all 1s. There's no caution to be taken in the higher rate of early votes in Bexar, where only a slight uptick can result in victory.

    I do hope you're right in your assessment that Ciro's campaign has been effective in turning out his voters early, though.

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:58:38 PM PDT

    •  ok

      Well if only 3% of voters have voted so far, I think you're right that my word of caution is irrelevant. And I have no basis for saying that Rodriguez is turning out his people; I was basing that only on the reported uptick in turnout (which, as you point out, is not much of a tick).

      by desmoulins on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 08:51:53 PM PDT

•  One of the benefits

  of having good Democrats in these strong Democratic districts is that they draw weak or no Republican challengers which free up the Democrat to campaign for other Democrats.

  What recently occurred to me was to wonder just how much the other guy may have been helping other Democrats out.  My guess, since he hasn't been getting donations from other Democratic members of Congress it not much.  I don't doubt that a Representative Ciro Rodriguez will be a much better help electing other Democrats nationwide than the other guy.  Just another reason to support him.

  by msstaley on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 01:57:26 PM PDT

•  Phone Banking for Ciro

  Just returned home from phone banking at Ciro's headquarters on S. Flores St.

  We were calling numbers that had not answered previous calls or had expressed an favorable interest in voting for Ciro during earlier calls in January and February.  I called no one that had a recent contact.

  Lots of no answers and the obvious message machines of one ilk or another.

  But I did have the opportunity to chat with 40-50 people that had 1) either voted early or 2) were going to vote Tuesday.

  The one message that we were told to pass along to folks that had not yet voted but intended to on Tuesday was that Ciro was behind about 4000 votes between the two counties - Bexar and Webb -  San Antonio and Larado respectively.

  As for district wide, I haven't a clue.

  I did meet Tracy Joan and had a nice chat.

  If you're close to SA and can spare some time on Monday or Tuesday, give'em a shout as they can always use more volunteers.
  

  by SAQuestor on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:14:53 PM PDT

  •  how do you know

    that Ciro is behind 4,000 votes in Bexar and Webb County?

    by slinkerwink on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:46:18 PM PDT

    •  Webb County votes almost 75% in early voting...

      Bexar county is the opposite, it has high election day turn out.  Picture it like a graph.  On the first part of early voting Webb county historically votes heavy at the start of early voting and trickles off after that.  They have low numbers on election day usually down there.  It is the opposite in the rest of Ciro's district.  Low early voting turnout, and hight election day turnout.  Last time Ciro was down even more at the end of early voting, but then jumped back up to within 58 votes.  He is not down nearly as much this time.

      by Morter Forker on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:16:09 PM PDT

      •  You're Right There Forker.

        Laredo does have a very high rate of early voters, compared to Webb County. Last cycle, 69% of Laredo's voters voted early, compared to only 31% of Bexar voters who did the same.

        by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 04:16:33 PM PDT

        •  Sorry, I Meant Compared To Bexar County n/t

          by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 04:17:31 PM PDT

          •  district population

            what is the population of Bexar county within district 28?
            How is he doing in the rest of the district?

            by thutmosis on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 07:17:42 PM PDT

    •  I don't "know"

      Read that sentence again and you'll see those magic words "we were told to pass along"

      Then read the rest of the comments and you'll see that historically Webb votes early and Bexar votes on election day.

      by SAQuestor on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 04:17:44 PM PDT

  •  Votes Down?

    Early voting totals are rough estimates based on the data available to us from the local DOEs.  Also the #s available in Webb (Laredo) include mailed ballots, while the #s in Bexar County do not.  Mail-in ballots are in the thousands in this district.

    So the bottom line is that, yes we have work to do, but things are looking great for a fantastic ground game on Tuesday and Bexar County is ready to send their hometown boy back to Congress.

    A few weeks ago I was at breakfast with our campaign manager, who had a Ciro button and an elderly hispanic couple approched to chat.  I don't speak Spanish, but could tell they were talking about the election.  Afterwards I asked what they had said and the CM said that they told him they "made a mistake" in 2004 and were looking forward to correcting it.

    I think that is a widely shared sentiment and it is very important that we keeping pushing the district to remember what a REAL Democrat looks like, votes like and acts like.  That is what these people deserve.

    by Ciro Rodriguez for Congress on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:15:39 PM PDT

    •  Mea Culpa

      That comment was from me!  I was using Ciro's computer in the office and didn't realize he was logged in!

      sorry guys!

      -Tracy Joan

      by Tracy Joan on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:30:56 PM PDT

    •  The great thing about that

      is it means cueller must get four votes to make up for the 2 he lost.(picture 10 people, 5 vote one way 5 vote the other, two change their mind and now the vote is 7 to 3, a 4 vote gap take that cueller.)

      by msstaley on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 11:27:59 PM PDT

•  Spring Planting

  There are no other races to divide "our" attention. So why is the relatively small and poor DKos community going to "make the difference", when the big, rich Democratic Party will get most of the benefit?

  The complacency and laziness of the DP is running naked in the streets of San Antonio. This election will be one of the first where an "Internet machine" can steal some thunder from the establishment Democrats who brought us Mo'less Joe Lieberman, Gentleman John Kerry and Dino Tom Daschle. Let's make the difference not only in TX-28, but on the same radar that Howard Dean shot across.

  With Dean swinging from the treetops and us watering the netroots, we'll have the stiff old Democratic orchard surrounded. A little sunshine, some well-raked dirt, and we'll have the low-hanging fruit for ourselves. And within a few years, the wine!

  by DocGonzo on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:18:30 PM PDT

•  Democrats getting Republican's to vote?

  I may be missing something here, but there may be other dynamics here.  I don't know, I am asking a question.

  Is Cuellar, or his conservative Republican allies, asking Republicans to vote in the Democratic Primary?

  In the non-partisan Austin City Council race between a Democrat Jennifer Kim and a more progressive Democrat Margo Clarke, Kim's staff contacted the Rebublican organizations to get them to vote for Kim.  Kim won that election.

  It seems highly probable that Club for Growth (and other conservative organizations) would activate the conservative base to influence the Democratic primary.  Am I missing something fundamental like needing to be a registered Democrat already, or is the possible?  If it is possible I bet that they are doing it.

  by lookinforward on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:50:05 PM PDT

  •  I Don't Think You'll Find Many Republicans...

    ...in Webb County. Laredo votes 85%-15% for the Ds in the general election. Moreover, everybody votes in the D primary in Laredo, because that's the only ballot that has contested local races. So the dynamics are the same this cycle as it was the previous cycle.

    I don't imagine there's many Rs in South San either. However in the hinterlands, you might have a point, except that there are likely to be locally contested races in the R primary in those counties, which would attract the R voters.

    The non-partisan Austin City Council election is not a good example, because it's a, well, non-partisan race. And Austin has a sizable number of R voters to fish for, as opposed to Laredo and South San.  

    by chuco35 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 04:07:38 PM PDT

•  Just got back from block walking for Ciro...

  ...and everyone I talked to thanked me for reminding them to vote Tuesday.  The community knows that Cuellar has to go -- its just a matter of getting them nudged out to the polls.

  If Ciro is really 4000 votes low then I think I got at least 40 of them today. If the campaign can repeat this 99 more times between now and Tuesday then we could win.

  Such a win would really make a big difference in the future of the County Party.

  by casamurphy on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:04:00 PM PDT

  •  Thank you!

    For getting out there for Ciro - it's all about getting to people at the doors now.  

    We still could use some more help!  Call 210.928.CIRO is you want to get involved!

    by Ciro Rodriguez for Congress on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:16:42 PM PDT

    •  Again - mea culpa!

      Again, coming from me, Tracy Joan, and not Ciro.

      This will teach me to leave him logged in at the office!!!

      by Tracy Joan on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:32:15 PM PDT

  •  Keep up the good work! n/t

    by nicejoest on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 05:36:53 PM PDT

•  early voting

  What is the population of Bexar county inside district 28?

  How is the rest of the district doing with early voting? Somebody knows?

  by thutmosis on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 07:22:17 PM PDT