ABC News / WaPo Poll is Bullshit: Here's Why.

This is part of the phone script for part of the now infamous ABC News/WaPo (full survey here) reporting that over 60% of Americans "approve" of NSA collecting domestic phone records.

3. What do you think is more important right now - (for the federal government to investigate possible terrorist threats, even if that intrudes on personal privacy); or (for the federal government not to intrude on personal privacy, even if that limits its ability to investigate possible terrorist threats)?

4. It's been reported that the National Security Agency has been collecting the phone call records of tens of millions of Americans. It then analyzes calling patterns in an effort to identify possible terrorism suspects, without listening to or recording the conversations. Would you consider this an acceptable or unacceptable way for the federal government to investigate terrorism? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

They set up a false dichotomy: either you believe in personal privacy or stopping terrorism.  That's bullshit.

This is one of the most egregious examples of misleading polling from a major news organization that I have ever seen.  Polling experts have known for decades that the order in which questions are asked can cause extreme bias: see e.g., Wiseman, 1972 and McFarland, 1981. The designers of the ABCNEWS/WaPo poll are no doubt well aware of this.  Could they have possibly done a worse job of positioning that question in order to bias results?  

Message to any Dem Pols/Journos/Wonks who might be reading this: do not buy the administration spin.  It is not supported by a valid poll.  This isssue is not a "third rail" -- they want you to think that if you push this issue as an infringement against our privacy that you will suffer the political consequences.  America is not behind the president on this.   Keep pushing!

•  What do you think?

  I'm pissed.

  Please support Barack Obama.

  by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:44:18 AM PDT

  •  It's obvious

    as it is also obvious there was NO reason to do a one night poll.

    As it is also obvious that WaPo has never published one night polls in the past.

    It is hackery.

    by Armando on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:52:00 AM PDT

    •  So, who is responsible?

      I want names.  Who put question 4 in the poll?  Who decided where to put it?  And (the NSA should have records of this) -- who in the White House called them before they did?

      Please support Barack Obama.

      by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:53:55 AM PDT

      •  Morin presumably

        by Armando on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:12:48 AM PDT

  •  I think you should stop reading polls

    It obviously gets you very upset, especially polling data you do not agree with. Polls keep pollsters from the unemployment line. You have to remember the type of person who majors in statistics. They're not the ones who usually attend keg parties and have a lot of fun on campus.

    by tazz on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:54:16 AM PDT

    •  blind eyes

      if we could turn a blind eye to every manipulation of fact, sure, we might actually enjoy a keg party or two. Try as we might, it does not make it go away.

      Understand that this kind of polling is offensive to anyone with any research ethics, it's bogus science. But more importantly, it is offensive to the truth.  Why do you think the lily-livered folk in Washington shut the fuck up about this violation of the fourth amendment?

      I say if you're not pissed, you're not paying attention.

      by debraz on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:03:47 AM PDT

      •  Why do I have to get pissed?

        I'll let the younger generation get pissed. I can't be pissed all my life. I was pissed when McCarthy went after liberals in the 40s and 50s. I was pissed Eisenhower kept with Nixon after the Checkers bullshit. I was pissed about segregation, Jim Crow, KKK, the Cuban missile crisis, Frank Rizzo, the Vietnam War, Nixon beating Humphrey, Watergate, Cambodian bombing, the Iran hostage situation, Munich, plus another 10 or so years of rage against the system. I am retired. I don't get pissed anymore. I just thank my lucky stars I can still piss.

        by tazz on Fri May 12, 2006 at 12:48:09 PM PDT

    •  heh... actually, I'm a social scientist.

      Please support Barack Obama.

      by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:19:41 AM PDT

      •  So that begs the questions --

        1. It's been reported that the National Security Agency has been collecting the phone call records of tens of millions of American social scientists. It then analyzes calling patterns in an effort to identify possible kegger suspects, without listening to or recording the conversations. Would you consider this an acceptable or unacceptable way for the federal government to investigate alcoholism? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

        2.  Do you or have you attended keg parties?

        by don the tin foil on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:28:06 AM PDT

•  It will all come out in the wash

  and in the polls of the president which have already dropped BELOW the 30th percentile just a few days after the lastest NSA story broke.

  by Uncle Ho on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:45:16 AM PDT

  •  Well bleach does

    make everything sparkling white -- but only since 9/11.

    by don the tin foil on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:29:55 AM PDT

•  That's bullshit

  Those question are horribly biased in ways that would never be acceptable to statisticians.  That's the media for you, though.  Always trying to make sure Bush looks good and that their incompetence isn't revealed.

  by jlove1982 on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:45:19 AM PDT

  •  George Bush great president or..,

    greatest president.

    by irate on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:55:00 AM PDT

  •  Disclaimer Required!!

    The way this is done, they should be required to recite a disclaimer such as the following: "This poll is totally unscientific and would be repugnant to any pollster or statistician worthy of their salt.  It has been rushed through and phrased in such a way so as to maintain the 'scared shitless' attitude of the Amerikun pubic and deliberately misrepresent their true feelings for the benefit of this lawless regime, GWB, his beloved Turdblossom, and their proposed weasel-looking Snooper-in-Chief."

    by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:01:57 AM PDT

    •  Amen!

      Please support Barack Obama.

      by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:43:36 AM PDT

•  Nice. My favorite user of shit like this

  is wolf biltzer. He does this all the fucking time. Plus, he has the dead eyes of a mass killer.

  by bebacker on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:45:25 AM PDT

  •  Wolf will use this...

    you just sort of have to hope that Cafferty will go apeshit in response.

    by jlove1982 on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:57:36 AM PDT

    •  Well, Since Jack

      already said we're headed toward dictatorship, all he could do now is shout, "Achtung!!!"

      by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:03:19 AM PDT

      •  Refuting this BS can't wait for Cafferty...

        Michael Deaver planned every single day of the Reagan Presidency around events to shape the national debate.

        These fucking guys are pros who elected Bush TWICE while Dems just "figured" folks would discover the fact for themselves.

        We're living the results of that approach.

        DaveV has done us an enormous service.

        In a world of NON-STOP BULLSHIT, refuting the lies is a fulltime job.

        Rove and Bush together simply cannot be counted out.

        Any Dem who thinks the GOP are "bound" to lose are dreaming.

        It's far from over.

        by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:15:52 AM PDT

        •  Thanks for the shout out. Appreciate it!

          Please support Barack Obama.

          by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:44:51 AM PDT

•  You're right, the poll is flawed...

  More BS from the WaPo

  by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:46:38 AM PDT

  •  Maybe we should start referring to it as WaPoo

    because that's what it is. A BS filled rag.

    by maggiemae on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:15:15 AM PDT

    •  Now, Now...you may be right!

      by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:16:46 AM PDT

•  Let them think that

  I believe the truth is otherwise. You're right its a false dichotomy, we can do both, and people in their gut know that.  They also know that the assurances that only the "guilty" and terrorists were being monitored is not true.  They know they've been lied to and will act accordingly in November and in future polls.  

  I believe we'll see Bush's approval drop another 3-4 points or so in the next couple of weeks and this will be the reason why.

  Of course if Rove gets indicted today it will be harder to sort out but....

  by calebfaux on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:48:06 AM PDT

  •  Agree, but they're trying to shift the momentum.

    The press is really getting behind the "American Public Doesn't Care" meme, in part because of this BS poll.  They can influence public opinion, and in this case - falsely so.  We can't let them desensitize the American people further.  They keep on pushing, and we keep on giving them inch by inch.

    Please support Barack Obama.

    by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:52:18 AM PDT

    •  This is how the GOP win...

      by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:53:48 AM PDT

    •  I think the Americvan pblic is not so easily

      swayed on things like this.  They will form their opinion based on their thoughts not what other people think on this one.

      To some extent the poll may be right but the more people think about it the less it will be.

      by calebfaux on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:02:02 AM PDT

      •  3% on 9/12 looked to Iraq/Overton Window in..

        Action. You're right. But the problem is most folks don't want to read the news. They'd rather watch tv.

        by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:07:32 AM PDT

        •  The Overton Window

          is a theme I've really enjoyed seeing discussed here in the past few days.  It's a heck of a model for how this administration has shaped public opinion.

          Please support Barack Obama.

          by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:46:38 AM PDT

      •  Over the Weekend

        they'll reflect over their own phone calls, including the ones they might not want in anyone else's hands...

        by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:23:55 AM PDT

  •  A Rove indictment .,,

    would be the perfect finale to this week.

    by irate on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:56:17 AM PDT

    •  My Thoughts Exactly!!!

      The "Cherry" on the ol' Turdblossom!!!

      by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:08:09 AM PDT

•  This poll will be used over and over again

  As usual, a flawed poll can be used over and over again to support the administration illegal acts. Watch out for this one.

  by drsmith131 on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:53:06 AM PDT

  •  Poll already a key meme in the 'liberal media' ..

    isn't giving America the truth..

    Snow, Bush and Rove are setting the stage for a BIG GOP push-back...this poll will be quoted again and again.

    It becomes part of the "we're not hearing the "real story" from the liberal media. And we'll hear this over and over again right up to election day and after.

    Or the attack on Iran.

    by kidneystones on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:59:31 AM PDT

    •  Hopefully Other Polls

      will provide a truer picture.  I also think this has really hit bottom, w/what I've seen w/'other media', including local papers and tv news, which are shocked and all over this thing.  

      Here in Az, I think Kyl will pay for his "Nutz" comment.  Civil libertarians of any stripe are outraged and detest this shit!

      by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:22:37 AM PDT

•  What happens to

  people when you ask them....."I know that Bush would never use that info for anyting but looking for a terrorist plot but what about the next president?    
  Do you think that you could trust him/her also?"

  by pinkhardhat on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:55:18 AM PDT

  •  Imagine if 'Hillary' had that kind of power.

    by irate on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:57:15 AM PDT

•  what really needs to be talked about...

  Is the false positive rate -- but I guess that's way too complicated for the Washington Post to figure out on their own... Maybe their next poll could ask, would you still support this program if, for every potential terrorist found, 499 other regular Americans were also investigated (if not incarcerated) as suspected terrorists, potentially having their civil liberties suspended for the duration, which could take years?

  by pb on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:55:44 AM PDT

  •  you mean 49,999,999

    Please support Barack Obama.

    by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:31:15 AM PDT

•  this poll shows what it shows

  Even when people realize that THEIR personal calling behavior is in the hands of the government, if it's framed favorably to the GOP a majority will ACCEPT it and not get upset about it.

  All this should have no impact on what we do, or what Democratic politicians do.  What the NSA is doing is wrong.  That's all that matters now.

  by nieman on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:59:33 AM PDT

  •  Dump Hayden

    and investigate! If Dems don't jump on this, they're spineless and unworthy of our support!!!

    by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:09:27 AM PDT

•  September 11th changed Everything

  While i totally agree that the poll (thanx for posting the methodology) is total bullshit, it actually doesn't account for one glaring fact.

  September 11th, while maybe not changing everything, enabled the American public to become the wimps of the world.

  I should point out that coming from kanada down here to VA a few years ago, I may have thought the American public a lot of things, but in all honesty, giant wimps that just want "daddy" to protect them was not one of them.

  "Daddy" W comes on the television and says "BOO!!!" and "I Personally am gonna do everything i can to protect You" has really sunk into the American psyche -- with huge boatloads of help from the frightened cowering media.

  It is time to start confronting the "we are at war and everything we do in the service of war is Okely dokely fine with me" bullshit attitude.

  If You have friends, family, acquaintances that accept the destruction of their civil liberties, it is time to start calling them unamerican, shameful products of a proud courageous history, and mostly, call them the wimps that they so clearly have become.

  by josephk on Fri May 12, 2006 at 07:59:40 AM PDT

  •  ...And Friggin' Irrational!

    Somebody yesterday (can't remember who) said, if u really want security, how about the ports, how about making the watch lists work, etc.

    by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:11:00 AM PDT

    •  and one simply has to point South to New Orleans

      to knock that "security daddy" bull s#*t out of anyone's mind.

      I point out the obvious fact to people every day.  The government is NOT going to save you!

      Jeeze, grow up people, Big Daddy is not going to save you.  YOU are responsible for saving  yourself, your home, your family, your community, your state, and your country!  

      This administration has clearly demonstrated it's everyman for himself philosphy to us on a daily basis.  

       

      by maggiemae on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:31:55 AM PDT

      •  But, but maggiemae

        those were POOR, BLACK people, so they don't really count!!  We got some nifty new tax breaks for OUR kind of people down there--u know the RICH, WHITE ones!!!  C'mon now, get w/the program!!

        by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:31:21 AM PDT

        •  Tax breaks, huh? Well, if you sell it, and

          folks are uninformed enough to buy it those fat cat republicans now have plenty of time to shift around their assets to insure they don't get taxed.  

          Tax cuts...my whole entire Cherokee backside!

          by maggiemae on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:43:10 AM PDT

•  What is also missing

  are such issues as: Would you support data mining if the Government was allowed to not only keep your information, but also turn it over to the IRS, the INS, local authorities?

  In addition, many states still have laws against sodomy on the books, and what if your "private" phone conversation touches on something you did last night with your significant other mentioning sodomy?  Does that then mean the government can arrest you?

  The whole point is that we don't know what the government is doing with this information, and my fear is that they are also using it politically, mining data that can be used against Democrats in the elections (given that the government is now completely Republican, that jump may not be far off the mark).

  Americans do NOT want anyone mining their information, and given that all the data collected is NOT accounted for, we are in serious trouble.

  by SanJoseLady on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:09:35 AM PDT

  •  Bingo!!!

    And w/this crowd, SanJoseLady, you have a much-better-than-even chance of having your worst fears fulfilled!!!  They've already demonstrated their prowess in the Black Arts w/their dirty tricks at DoD--harrassing Quaker Meetings and Halliburton protestors handing out pb&j sandwiches!!!

    Btw, did u realize it's in our national security interest to defend Halliburton and the Saudis???  Just checkin'...

    by serrano on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:19:51 AM PDT

•  Once a straw man, always a straw man

  No one has ever offered one shred of evidence that compromising civil liberties or relaxing balance of power or granting the president more authority to act autonomously makes us safer in any way, shape or form.  It is a straw man that no one in the MSM ever seems to question.

  I heard Roger Cressey on MSNBC yesterday say, "The American people continue to seek the appropriate balance between safety and privacy."  I threw a brick at my TV.  WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

  by The Termite on Fri May 12, 2006 at 08:29:33 AM PDT

•  Man, I'm glad you posted this...

  'Cos I thought the US had totaly lost its mind when I read this poll...

  I honestly believed that the NSA millions spying story would be the final tipping point....  when I read the WaPo story, I about had a seizure...  I'm usually not wrong about these things...

  I hope that the diarist is correct and that this is a BS poll, and the reality is closer to my guesstimate...

  Let us hope...  otherwise, there won't be much America left to defend!

  Thanks,

  Mike

  by LordMike on Fri May 12, 2006 at 09:00:14 AM PDT

  •  Me, too. I knew there had to be something wrong.

    Didn't take long once I found the link to the interview script.  If the media makes the reality, though -- by teaching the public that everyone thinks it's OK to have their phone records mined by the government -- then we have a big problem.

    Please support Barack Obama.

    by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 09:05:59 AM PDT

•  Reminds me of a passage

  from one of my favourite ever TV shows (British) - Yes Prime Minister.

  Prime Minister James Hacker had been persuaded that reintroducing National Military Service was supported by "the Man In The Street" by an opinion poll conducted by his political party. Sir Humphrey Appleby wanted to persuade the Prime Minister against reintroducing such National Service.

  Bernard Wooley recalls being taught by Sir Humphrey Appleby how to manipulate opinion polls using "commitment consistency" as follows:

  "The secret is that when the Man In The Street is approached by a nice attractive young lady with a clipboard he is asked a series of questions. Naturally the Man In The Street wants to make a good impression and doesn't want to make a fool of himself. So the market researcher asks questions designed to elicit consistent answers.

  Humphrey demonstrated the system [that had been used for the Poll conducted by the Party] on me. "Mr Woolley, are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"

  "Yes," I said.

  "Do you think there is a lack of discipline and vigorous training in our Comprehensive Schools?"

  "Yes."

  "Do you think young people welcome some structure and leadership in their lives?"

  "Yes."

  "Do they respond to a challenges?"

  "Yes."

  "Might you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"

  "Yes."

  Well, naturally I said yes. One could hardly have said anything else without looking inconsistent. Then what happens is that the Opinion Poll publishes only the last question and answer.

  But of course, the reputable polls didn't conduct themselves like that. But there weren't too many of those. Humphrey suggested that we commission a new survey, not for the Party but for the Ministry of Defence. We did so. He invented the questions there and then: '

  "Mr Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"

  "Yes," I said, quite honestly.

  "Are you unhappy about the growth of armaments?"

  "Yes."

  "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"

  "Yes."

  "Do you think it wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"

  "Yes."

  "Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"

  I'd said "Yes" before I'd even realised it, d'you see?

  Humphrey was crowing with delight. "You see, Bernard," he said to me "you're the perfect Balanced Sample.""

  by magnus on Fri May 12, 2006 at 09:09:34 AM PDT

  •  Brilliant!

    Please support Barack Obama.

    by DaveV on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:04:28 AM PDT

•  I don't even trust their stated reasons:

  For example:

  45. It's been reported that the National Security Agency has been collecting the phone call records of tens of millions of Americans. It then analyzes calling patterns in an effort to identify possible terrorism suspects, without listening to or recording the conversations. Would you consider this an acceptable or unacceptable way for the federal government to investigate terrorism? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

  Who believes this is only to identify terrorists, if it even does that? It's a first crack at databasing EVERY SINGLE THING AMERICANS DO. This bunch of creeps will never stop spying on us, for reasons of maintaining control, personal enrichment, commercial opportunity, you name it.

  Were there really good Republicans at one time? Or is that just a fable some of us take comfort in?

  Fuck the bastards; fight 'em at every turn.

  by perro amarillo on Fri May 12, 2006 at 10:21:22 AM PDT