And Kerry's 'bad week' has left us exactly where? Tracking polls, for all their flaws, are the
best way to chart responses to specific interventions, i.e. an ad campaign.
Well, guess what? After a week of shock and awe by RoveCo., Bush is the same and Kerry's down one point.
March 20, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush at 46%, Senator John F. Kerry at 45%, and "some other candidate" at 3%.
President Bush continues to be the candidate voters trust more on issues of national defense. Voters are equally divided between Bush and Kerry when it comes to managing the economy.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Many people have asked recently why we do not include Ralph Nader by name in our tracking poll. The short answer is that we do not believe he will be much of a factor in Election 2004. A more detailed explanation can be found in this article.
This was, is, and will be a close election, kids.
More on Nader:
There are two reasons we do not include Nader by name in our polling at this time.
First, it is not at all clear how many state ballots will include Nader this fall. If he is not on the ballot, he is not likely to be much of a factor.
Second, if the national election stays close, Ralph Nader will not attract the 5% to 7% level of support found in several recent polls. Given the experience of four years ago, many potential Nader supporters will ultimately decide to cast their vote for John Kerry.
Our current polling finds that about 4% of voters say that they will vote for someone other than Bush or Kerry. When we ask them a follow-up question, less than half say they will stick with that third party choice.
Therefore, we have concluded that the most accurate measure of the Bush-Kerry race is to leave Nader's name out of the mix.
Having said that, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the situation and consider adding Nader if he is able to obtain ballot access in at least 35-40 states. We will do the same for Libertarian candidates and others who are on that many state ballots.
Also, we want to be clear that our comments about limited support for Nader apply only in the context of a close election. If, in late October, it appears that Bush is headed for victory by a fairly safe margin, some Democrats might support Nader with a protest vote.
Finally, we want to acknowledge that Nader may have a significant impact on the race even if he does not attract many votes. The mere presence of a challenge from the left will complicate the efforts of Senator Kerry to move toward more centrist positions.