(Imagine John Belushi at Delta House. Close your eyes, and....)
Valley Forge
The Dean campaign has often returned to Revolutionary War slogans, and now we find ourselves in a Revolutionary War situation. As in Valley Forge, Dean has asked some of the officers to forgo their pay and stick with him. As at Valley Forge, we have made some mistakes. As at Valley Forge, things are not as bleak as they could be.
But they are bad.
Kerry is now the front runner. The Perfect Storm swept Dean into the sea and Kerry into the lead. Kerry not only coopted much of Dean's positions, he took and executed his strategy. If the campaign is letter perfect from here on in, and Kerry makes no mistakes, he will win the nomination. I don't believe he is our best candidate, but the many of the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire do.
Much of the money is gone, although I seriously doubt that the campaign is on fumes. The Trippi strategy was to smash through the first two contests, ride the momentum through 2/3 and then wipe out the field in Washington, Wisconsin, and Michigan. As a result, huge sums were spent in Iowa, and then in NH. Now that that strategy has fallen apart, the campaign has to gear up for months of campaigning. Some of the lavishments of the last month are gone the way of the Dodo
Finally, Trippi has resigned. For many of us, he had been a larger than life Jedi who created some magnificent tools and caught the wave perfectly all fall. His first round knockout strategy didn't work, but it could have. He made plenty of mistakes. The ads were uninspiring, the on the ground planning in Iowa seems to have been weak, and the speech hurt.
Even though things are bad, they aren't as bad as the media and the other candidates would have you believe. In this campaign, Hope is a muscle and it can bench 350.
First, Howard Dean remains the candidate. His issues and positions are the same now that they were in the sweet, long days of summer when I joined the campaign. If you saw the concession speech in New Hampshire, you know that he can still light up a room and bring down the roof. The country knows him, they know his issues, and they know his voice. No scandal has tarnished him, no nasty revelation his past has besmirched him and he has not been caught in any hypocrisy. The country needs to believe he can beat George Bush.
Second, John Kerry is the frontrunner. I have voted for John every single time I can, but he is not an immortal. He has yet to withstand the barrage of advertising and bad press that Dean saw in Iowa. With Wes Clark and John Edwards fighting on in South Carolina and Missouri, he will have questions that need to be answered. He does not have a commanding war chest (yet). He was the front runner once before and fumbled that away. The Republican Press will have a field day with Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor, the man who voted against the first Gulf War, and who supported President Bush on every major piece of legislation. In the general election, I fear that Kerry will be our Bob Dole.
Third, the campaign seems to have its act together. The New Hampshire primary was a hell of a recovery from the scream and Iowa. A 13 point loss was worse than I wanted, but it is a lot better than it looked on Tuesday morning when Dean was sitting in fourth place and sinking. The press is coming back around, the television appearances have shown Howard to be relaxed and ready, and the speeches and appearances are crisp. He is back to running on issues and process. (BTW, I think Trippi was out after Iowa and NH was in the hands of Hicks and Neel)
The Dean Nation hasn't given up the fight. The "Come Back Bat" is about to hit one million dollars, averaging $15,000-20,000 an hour. Americans for Dean has increased by 20,000 volunteers a day. The comments on the blog fill up in minutes, not hours.
Finally, Howard Dean can count on me. I ain't much. I can't travel or canvas. I can't organize a fund raiser with 300 people paying $2000 a pop. I can't design a killer TV ad. But I can pray, talk, write, and hit the bat.
It's cold ,Howard. The wind is blowing, the fires are going out, the British are circling, and the money is thin. I'm sticking.
Where else could I be?