Woah, 50 states getting polled? Damned ambitious of ARG. The
first 20 have been posted.
Most of the results are what you'd expect (Bush takes Wyoming 65-29 making Theoria one lonely guy in that Big Red State). But here are some of the more relevant results:
ARG. Likely Voters. 9/8-13 (exact dates vary by state). MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Colorado
Bush 46
Kerry 45
Maine
Kerry 48
Bush 44
Minnesota
Kerry 47
Bush 45
Oregon
Kerry 47
Bush 45
Washington
Kerry 51
Bush 44
Meanwhile, SUSA has a couple new polls.
Georgia
SurveyUSA (PDF). Likely Voters. 9/13-15. MoE 3.9%. (No trend lines.)
Bush 58
Kerry 38
Senate
Isakson (R) 58
Majette (D) 33
New Jersey
SurveyUSA (PDF). Likely Voters. 9/12-14. MoE 4%. (No trend lines.)
Bush 49
Kerry 45
SUSA notes that its NJ survey was conducted immediately following the 9/11 commemoration. I wouldn't sweat those results. NJ will go Dem by 10 points.
Illinois
Illinois (PDF). Likely Voters. 9/12-14. MoE 4%. (6/7 results.)
Kerry 49 (52)
Bush 45 (39)
Senate
Obama (D) 65
Keyes (R) 24
On the national front, we a
Pew Poll showing Kerry and Bush tied at 46 percent. Kerry trailed 52-40 a mere four days ago. On the other hand, the new Gallup poll (I'm too lazy to see if it has been published) reportedly gives Bush a 14-point lead, which seems to scream, "
outlier"!
But we'll see what other polls say before we can definitively say what the trend is, and whether Bush's bounce truly is fading.