At this hour...
- Election Results and Run-off schedule
- Fraud Alledged...
- Boycott Defeated thanks to Bush?
- Loss of the Moderates (thanks again?)
first, here are the previous parts of the series:
Part I,
Part II,
Part III.
Election Results
Most official news agencies are reporting a run-off between "pragmatist cleric" Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and hardliner mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They both received about 20% of the vote.
The election was marked with two big surprizes. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was fifth or sixth by most polling accounts just about one day ago, and he ended up within the margin of error of the lead. Similarly, all polls and reports were in agreement that former majlis speaker, Mehdi Karroubi's campaign had failed to catch fire, nobody had him in the top 4 either, but he ended up a strong third. A late rally by reformist front runner and former education minister Mostafa Moin had him in the run-off and within striking distance of winning the first round out-right, but he ended up a disappointing fifth.
Nobody expected this lineup. This blog illustrates the rollercoaster that was the election day. At one point Karroubi came out of no where to take the lead, and his numbers gradually came down. Even more shocking was Ahmadinejad's rise.
The polls were certainly flawed. Karroubi never cracked the top 3 in any poll and often found himself at the bottom.
New York Times' Iran expert who just flew back to the US said this only two days ago:
Up until last week, Qalibaf was running second. But just before I left, a new poll came out, which actually put Moin, the reform candidate, in second place. So that was a big surprise and we don't know exactly what it all means. I had a chance to chat with Moin's chief spokesperson, who's also a woman, and she's a formidable lady who is quite confident he will do extremely well in the election.
Fraud Alligations
Before the voting started there were a few scattered warnings about possible rigging.
Mr Khatami did not identify who was behind the interference, which he said included "disruption of gatherings, beatings, illegal pamphlets and spreading lies to ruin candidates' reputations regardless of political inclination".
In addition to violence on the campaign trial, Iran has been rocked by a series of bombings in recent days that left up to 10 people dead.
Other concerns were regarding the fact that armed Basiji's were going to provide security for the polling stations. Basijis are "militias" who are hardline conservatives and are expected to vote for one of the ex-Revolutionary Guards (Ghalibaf, Ahmadinejad or Larijani).
But many bloggers dismissed these because the interior ministry which usually runs the elections and has historically done the tallying and the reporting of the results. This ministry is in the hands of the reformists.
Well, that may have been a wrong assumption.
As the countdown started at midnight Saturday night, regular updates were being provided by the Interior ministry. The last update was done at 3:45AM, and it showed Karroubi as second to Hashemi. This IRNA page still reflects these results, reporting a Karroubi-Hashemi run-off as do some foreign media pages.
But then it was the Guardian Council -not the Interior Ministery- that made the final announcements on Iranian TV some 9 hours later. In this presentation, Karroubi was third and Ahmadinejad was second. The reformist-run interior ministry has not made an official statement since the GC announcement.
WaPo's latest story has description of this.
After the polls finally closed at 11 p.m. Friday, vote tallying was proceeding normally in the early hours of Saturday morning. For several hours, the totals reflected pre-election polls and exit surveys. With a third of the votes in, Rafsanjani held a firm lead, and Moin was a solid second. But no vote totals were released to the public.
At 5 a.m., Ahmadinejad began to surge ahead. Interior officials expressed quiet surprise, but a Guardian Council spokesman publicly announced the preliminary total.
That sent President Khatami rushing to the Interior building. Before cameras, he upbraided the Guardian Council for butting in.
At a news conference, Karrubi declared: "Some centers of power are violating the law and are trying to get more votes for a particular person with the help of the Guardian Council.
Interior and Guardian Council officials also differed on turnout. While interior officials slowly moved their estimate toward 60 percent, a Guardian official claimed it approached 70 percent -- comparable to the turnout when Khatami was reelected four years ago.
furthermore
The allegation was seconded by campaign aides to Mostafa Moin, the most prominent reformist candidate.
Meanwhile Ahmadinejad pretended there was no controversy and "declared" himself a candidate for the run-off.
When asked about this at his press conference, Ahmadinejad snapped back to the questioning journalist saying his sources were out of date and that the GC under the constitution has the responsibility to ratify the vote.
"I know much earlier than you do because you are just from media and I am an insider," Ahmadinejad said in rebuff to a journalist's doubt.
The Boycott that Wasn't
Many reformists disgruntled with the Khatami reforms had called for a boycott of the elections. I talked about this in my previous diary entries linked above. The reformists had successfully boycotted the previous regional elections where for example in Tehran, only 10% had voted for the mayoral race in 2003. As a result ultra-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected mayor and was thus able to contest the Presidential elections this year.
This year the initial calls for a full boycott were somewhat pacified within Iran after the Guardian Council reversed itself and allowed moderates Mostafa Moin and Mohsen Mehr-Alizadeh to contest the elections.
However the most vocal of the exile groups consisting of Monarchists, the MKO, socialists and other minor gorups were still pushing for a boycott of the elections to expose the Iranian government as a totalitarian dictatorship. They had predicted 25-40% of Iranians voting at the most.
In what I'm personally calling an idiotic move both Bush and Rice gave their tacit support to the boycott movement and associated themsevles with the exiles. Even though the turnout didn't reach the popular 1997 levels when Khatami first got elected, the boycott was still a disaster.
Voter turnout hit 62 per cent, a figure considered high. Officials extend poll hours to accommodate the crowds.
Many Iranian reformers, supported by U.S. President George W. Bush, had called for a boycott.
Prayer leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani told worshippers that voting "strengthens the pillars of the ruling Islamic establishment."
From AP:
But anti-regime activists who are disillusioned about the prospect of change in a system run by clerics urged "none of the above." Boycott appeals had been carried on Web sites, pamphlets and satellite TV programs from the large Iranian community around Los Angeles -- given the local nickname "Tehrangeles."
Furthermore, the minority that did follow through with the boycott only hurt the most progressive candidate Mostafa Moin, and empower the hardliners as Moin's campaign staff had been warning all along.
Mostafa Tajzadeh told a group of people in this southern port city late Tuesday that efforts are underway to dampen public enthusiasm for participating in the June 17 poll, Iran Daily reported.
A low voter turnout, he said, will boost the chances of victory for 'authoritarian' groups.
"Higher participation, on the contrary, will bring success for the reform movement initiated by the people eight years ago."