In an attempt to find out where the candidates are today in the electoral vote I used the following formula:
- Take median of Bush vs. Kerry in the last six national polls.
- Average Bush or Kerry's lead with the partisan index for each state found here: http://www.mydd.com/special/president
- Average the combined total of procedures above to the latest state poll for each candidate (if no state polls later than 5/25/04 no state poll used).
- Where a national poll or state poll has both Bush vs Kerry matchups and Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader matchups I used the Bush vs. Kerry matchup in 44 states and the Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader in the 6 states where Nader has qualified for ballot status (CO, FL, KS, MI, MT, MS)
This method combines national polls, a state's partisan History and state polls to try to arrive at a relatively objective picture of where the candidates stand today.
This week's results: Bush has a 0.5% lead over Kerry (1% with Nader) and a 284-254 lead in the electoral college.
Last week Bush had a 1% lead over Kerry (also 1% when Nader was included) and lead the electoral vote 288-250. (New Hampshire changed from Bush to kerry this week).
State by state Bush vs. Kerry matchups are in extended text for every state.
SOLID KERRY STATES (168 electoral votes)
DC (3) Kerry +75.2
RI (4) Kerry +28.1
NY (31) Kerry +26.0
MA (12) Kerry +25.6
HA (4) Kerry +17.3
MD (10) Kerry +14.9
CT (7) Kerry +14.2
DE (3) Kerry +12.1
IL (21) Kerry +11.5
NJ (15) Kerry +11.4
VT (3) Kerry +8.9
CA (55) Kerry +8.4
LEAN KERRY (25 electoral votes)
ME (4) Kerry +6.1
WA (11) Kerry +5.7
MN (10) Kerry +4.2
TOO CLOSE TO CALL (93 EV--61 for Kerry, 32 for Bush)
NM (5) Kerry +3.4
OR (7) Kerry +3.0
IA (7) Kerry +1.0
MI (17) Kerry +0.8
NH (4) Kerry +0.7
PA (21) Kerry +0.1
NV (5) Bush +2.0
WI (10) Bush +2.4
MO (11) Bush +2.6
AR (6) Bush +3.1
LEAN BUSH (95 Electoral Votes)
OH (20) Bush +4.2
AZ (10) Bush +5.1
FL (27) Bush +5.8
WV (5) Bush +6.1
VA (13) Bush +6.5
TN (11) Bush +7.5
LA (9) Bush +7.6
SOLID BUSH (157 electoral votes)
NC (15) Bush +9.4
CO (9) Bush +9.9
GA (15) Bush +11.3
KY (8) Bush +14.8
SC (8) Bush +14.9
IN (11) Bush +16.7
MS (6) Bush +18.4
TX (34) Bush +18.6
AL (9) Bush +19.5
SD (3) Bush +23.8
KS (6) Bush +22.3
MT (4) Bush +23.3
OK (7) Bush +24.5
ND (3) Bush +28.6
NE (5) Bush +30.0
AK (3) Bush +32.0
ID (4) Bush +35.2
WY (3) Bush +41.1
UT (4) Bush +41.5