CA-GOV: Ahnuld up by eight (Field Poll) [UPDATE]
Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 09:21:05 AM PDT
With a hat tip to
Political Wire:
"After signing the state's timeliest budget in six years and running $12 million in post-primary campaign ads," California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) now leads Phil Angelides (D) by eight points in his re-election bid, 45% to 37%, according to a new Field Poll.
Those are likely voters, at 15% undecided. I hate to say it, but that would make for a 12-point swing in favor of the Gropenator since the last Field Poll came out a month ago (link).
More on the flip.
It's a fairly small sample:
For most questions, the poll surveyed 731 likely voters by telephone between July 10-23, with an error margin of 3.8 percentage points. For questions on the governor's performance and the state's direction, the poll surveyed a smaller sample of 498 registered voters, with an error margin of 4.5 percentage points.
But I seem to remember that the Field Poll has a good reputation in CA. Anybody? The approval numbers aren't in the article, but it looks like they have turned around as well, as has the right-track-wrong-track indicator:
The findings contain additional good news for the Republican incumbent: More voters believe California is headed in the right direction than the wrong direction for the first time in 22 months, while Schwarzenegger has his first positive job approval rating since February 2005.
It's just one poll, so I don't want to sound like Chicken Little. But the change since last month is quite significant, and we all know that CA has never (at least not in recent history) failed to reelect an incumbent governor. But, as dday reminds us, Arnold's political future may well depend on wether the power grid holds up these days, or the rolling blackouts return. One thing's for sure: Kennyboy Lay, who caused the blackouts that propelled Schwarzenegger into office, isn't around to help him.
Update [2006-7-25 13:7:44 by brainwave]:
sanchez96 just posted a second diary on this topic; but his has more info and the link (PDF!) to the actual poll itself, rather than to an article about it. This doc states among other things that Angelides is indeed still suffering from weak Dem support, quite possibly a result of the negative ad war during the primary:
Republicans are rallying strongly behind Schwarzenegger, with 85% supporting the Governor. On the other hand, Angelides has not yet achieved the high level of support that successful Democratic candidates typically receive among their party's rank-and-file, with less than two in three (63%) currently backing his candidacy.
Update [2006-7-25 13:7:44 by brainwave]: And here are the approval/disapproval numbers:
For the first time since February of last year, more voters (49%) approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance than disapprove (40%). In addition, voter impressions of the direction the state is heading have become more positive than negative for the first time since September 2004.
49%, that's pretty darn close to safe territory for Scharzenegger, but not quite there yet.
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