Until we get more hard data we need to have some kind of thinking tool to identify where we should be looking. One way of doing that is to set up a risk/power matrix to see where the channels are.
Given the facts that Guckert is a hooker for someone in the WH, and that his journalism "credentials" were established ex post facto, and that he has continued in the role until right now, I think this is a reasonable scenario.
Someone in the WH needs man on man sex. He uses the Texas connection to find him. Guckert says he moved to DC after 911, maybe the john was under unusual amounts of stress at the time and just had to get some relief.
They don't pick a local boy because he is already too well-known and has too many other connections in DC. So the Texas link vets and forwards Guckert.
Question 1 Who in the WH has the power to command such an operation?
Then said john decides that he wants this stud around on a regular basis and comes up with the idea that he could hide him in plain sight as a member of the Press gaggle, giving him perfect cover for being constantly in the WH and available.
Question 2 Who has the power to issue, or cause to be issued, a WH Hard Pass, circumventing all security and elegibility checks?
There follows a "Holy Fuck What Have You Done?" moment when someone realises that Guckert is now a public figure exposed on CSPAN, and available to talk to the damned press, the almost real ones.
So another call goes out to Texas and Eberle is disinterred to spawn Talon off GOPUSA, Guckert is whizzed off to LI for a basiscs of Journalism course and reinstalled as Gannon. There is some question about whether he gets another hard pass or the insane attempt to steer round the security problem by issuing infinite numbers of Day passes.
I don't go for the latter, I think they were desperately trying to spin their way out of a shitpile and divert attention from the hard pass list.
Question 3 Who in the WH has the power to make all that happen to protect their hooker?
The other characteristic of this whole adventure is the level of risk that each step entails. Calling in a DC outsider is risk management, may even be SOP.
But from there on, the risk level rises steeply. Dropping the boy into a highly exposed public space like the press room, cutting out the SS and issuing the hard pass are all completely insane risk levels for this organisation.
They also compromise the most important part of the WH machinery, the wurlitzer. Their ability to control and manage the message is crucial to their survival and this meddled right at the heart of the controlled press model, Rove home territory, in a way that could have screwed the system very badly. (As its unraveling is now showing)
The Talon news/ LI course and possibly the Day pass route are again all risk mitigation and management actions. In other words, slightly saner heads had to hop in and rescue the situation.
However, they could not solve the problem by just pulling Guckert and kicking his ass back to texas or sending him to sleep with the fishes.
Which means he has serious levels of protection; someone in the WH who could say, "I don't give a shit what you think should have happened, I want him, I'll have him here if I want; fix it".
The Suspects
FLEISCHER No. It all kicked off just as he was about to leave. We all knew he was on the way from the rumours months before, and Guckert is still there. If he had been Ari's boy, they would have ridden off into the sunset, Guckert would have a nice job at Ari's consultancy and we would not be doing this.
MCLELLAN No. He might have had the power to call in a call-boy from Texas, but for the assistant to assign someone to the press corp on his own say-so for purely personal reasons (gay sex yet) circumvent the SS checks and issue the Hard Pass is just not credible.
I'm sure he had his hands on the levers to do it though, but he would have to have higher consent; Rove would go ballistic if he found an underling screwing with his propaganda apparatus so he could screw in a WH closet.
I think Scotty was directly involved however. I think Ari's job was the payoff after Scotty did someone's bidding with the Hard Pass and had hisself a new asshole torn by Rove. I think his promotion was a slap at Rove for upsetting the john. Remember that there were a couple of other, more qualified, candidates for the job and it was Gannon who floated the idea of Scotty getting the job. I think he was passing on pillow talk because his john had been pissed off at the Rove storm and had decided to give Scotty the job for his loyalty. Gannon was just trying to look like a king-maker to his freeper mates.
Question 4 Who had the power to override a Rove volcano and put Scotty in the hot seat?
Back to the suspects
ROVE Probably not. I'm sure he would be the one to set up the ex post facto cover operation, but if it had been his boy, the cover would have been in place first, he's an asshole but this kind of thing is his territory and he is pretty careful on the road to audacity.
RUMSFELD Arrogant, militaristic, incompetent, no planning. It could be him.
It would depend on how much time he spends in the WH. If its more than 60% of his DC time, I wouldn't rule him out. He is far enough up the tree, he definitely gets off on military stuff and a Marine sucking his dick might be just what he needed to release the post 911 tensions. I doubt that he has the attention span or the loyalty to go the whole Gannon hog though. Treat people like tissue paper is more his style.
Update [2005-2-17 19:21:31 by Deep Dark]: CHENEY Location, power, and probably the only one in the WH who could actually stand up to Rove, who he knows is a weasel. But I don't see Cheney driven by the kinds of stuff that erupt in dangerous sexual escapades. He calculates too far down the road and while power is definitely his "B" trip, I think Money gets him even more.
I think we can write off pretty well all the rest because they are either too unimportant to carry the whole thing or don't locate in the WH.
Which leaves BUSH. Arrogant, stupid to a fault, impulsive, obsessed with loyalty, probably cramped by Rove who forces him to try and think occasionally and definitely sitting on some weird sexuality. I picked him for a closet something in 2001 and said so on this board.
He has the power and he is apparently oblivious to any concept of risk, he can't be seen outside the cordon, eveything has to be home delivered and as divorced from local reality as possible, he is the constant factor and has no problems making huge exceptions for himself where others would get their asses handed to them.
What do you think?