Last night when all we had to go on was exit polls, the buzzards were hovering around the Clark campaign and the speculation was about where his supporters would go if he lost OK. Thankfully, he lives to fight another week (at least). Since Clark is making a habit of pulling things out of his ass at the last minute, at best the speculation is likely to continue.
Edwards supporters seemed to be the most insistent that Clarkies shift to their guy. That could just be because Kerry supporters are happy to let things unfold, or they don't want to make themselves known around here. In any case, I can't speak for anyone else, but this Clarkie isn't going to shift to Edwards any time soon.
After Iowa disposed of Dean, I was pretty happy--the only viable candidates left were Clark, Edwards, and Kerry--a win-win-win situation, I thought. I've since changed my mind and think that nominating Edwards for the top slot would be a mistake
at this time. The "at this time" is important, because my argument is Edwards isn't yet a finished candidate. Before I can even consider Edwards on his merits, he has to show me he can stand up to two inevitable ordeals: being Roved and being Nagourneyed.
Everyone knows what being Roved means, and Edwards supporters usually say that he will be able to deal, being a top notch trial lawyer. However, let's remember what he has in store for himself. This is from last night's Larry King wrap-up, talking about Kerry:
KING: Gergen, you mentioned $100 million. When does that onslaught begin?
GERGEN: I think within 30 days.
KING: They're going to start?
GERGEN: They're going to start in on ads. I think they'll start early. But already, Larry, you can see a few -- listen to Republicans talk about him [Kerry] around the country, as they go on television. Now they're already citing facts about his A.D. -- his Americans for Democratic Action rating, his liberal rating.
They're starting -- they're starting to punch holes here. They're trying to paint him already. It's not going to take long. They know what they're doing. They've done this before.
And we saw this with Lee Atwater running the campaign back in 1988 against Dukakis. They used brass knuckles.
And what's been so interesting to me is how Kerry is coming out of his corner with his own brass knuckles. He intends to fight. Actually going to make it a much more interesting race this fall.
I am confident that both Clark and Kerry can withstand this and give as good as they get. Edwards, I'm afraid, can't, both because he has laid all his bets on being positive and he just hasn't been around long enough to be toughened to that degree.
A less obvious ordeal is being Nagourneyed. The NYT main political writer Adam Nagourney was responsible for the "Mary, help!" quote that nailed Clark right out of the gate. Edwards has already been Nagourneyed, he just doesn't know it yet. It actually took a few days for "Mary, help" to kick in. Count on the following to come back to haunt Edwards really soon:
He [Edwards] displays flashes of irritation at suggestions that he might be too young or insubstantial to be the leader of the nation. Yet there are times when he clearly seems more comfortable with the sweeping arc of his speeches than with the gritty details of the presidency.
Asked the other day on a bus in New Hampshire to describe his most significant legislative accomplishment during his five years in the Senate -- a not unusual query for candidates -- Mr. Edwards rubbed his eyes and searched for an answer.
"Well, there are lots of things that I helped lead the way with," he said. "Especially in the Senate, one person doesn't do anything. They always do it in groups. The investigation of September 11th, there are a number of provisions."
"I myself wrote some of the provisions into the laws that were a response to September the 11th," he paused, then added, sighing, "Hate getting asked these questions."
His wife, Elizabeth, seated across from him, chimed in, "Campaign finance reform."
"There are a bunch of things," Mr. Edwards said. "My Senate office will have all the stuff I debated on the floor and passed."
If Edwards can beat Clark in TN and VA and win either or both of these, I will need to face the facts that my guy can't win (whether or not he chooses that point to acknowledge it as well). However, until Edwards can show he can be put through the ringer and still come out standing, he's simply not ready for primetime, and my money goes to Kerry.