I refuse to believe that the US Senate is in play. My early guess is a pickup of 2-3 seats, short of the six seats we need to retake the Senate.
Chuck Todd, the National Journal's non-partisan political guru, however, sees potential signs of a huge upset (not a permalink).
1. PENNSYLVANIA
Rick Santorum (R)
Last ranking: 2
The only incumbent up in 2006 who consistently polls behind his announced opponent is Santorum. For that reason alone, we have to move him into the top spot. Bob Casey Jr. (D) may not be tough enough to win, but it's possible that Santorum is just carrying too much baggage to take this swing state. However, questions about Casey date back to 2002 when he not only lost a primary for governor, but suffered a double-digit defeat to Ed Rendell. Plus, he was dragged into this race. Will there be enough fire from him once this thing gets down and dirty?
2. RHODE ISLAND
Lincoln Chafee (R)
Last ranking: 1
Speaking of baggage, Chafee's certainly carrying a lot of it. And it's the weight of that baggage, not the worthiness of his Democratic opponents, that makes him so vulnerable. Democrats are down to their third and fourth choices in Sheldon Whitehouse and Matt Brown. And it's likely that the nastiness of the Democratic primary will be just the thing Chafee needs to survive. If you think all this reads as if it's a replay of the 2000 campaign, you're not alone. In that campaign, Democrats failed to get their first or second choices and were stuck with a nasty primary. The only difference this cycle is that Chafee might have to deal with a primary challenge of his own. If that happens, Democrats may find an opening.
3. MINNESOTA
Open Seat - Mark Dayton (D) is retiring
Last ranking: 3
In nearly half of the in-play Senate races, Democrats must deal with a primary before they can unite against the GOP. In this race, that primary is not just a problem for the party but for one of the party's leading interest groups, EMILY's List. With both Patty Wetterling and Amy Klobuchar running, the pro-choice women's campaign group faces a dilemma. While the group has tried to encourage Wetterling to seek the state's open 6th District seat, she's not taking the bait.
Right now, it appears Klobuchar has the best shot at garnering that key endorsement. And, should Klobuchar secure the backing of the state party, Wetterling has promised not to run in the primary. That's not the case with self-funding Kelly Doran, who has no plans to participate in the party endorsement process and has every intention of contesting the actual primary.
All this Democratic action allows GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy to continue stockpiling cash. While there have been rumors he could still face a primary challenge, it appears this former Rep. Vin Weber boomlet started by the state's right-leaning blogs is nothing but hot air.
4. Maryland
Open Seat - Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring
Last ranking: 24
Maryland's strong Democratic nature is the only thing keeping this race as low as fourth. Likely GOP nominee Michael Steele is the real deal, and the field of Democrats is underwhelming. The combination could be enough for Steele to pull off the near-impossible. At a minimum, this is going to be a real contest.
The Democrats' two best candidates -- Martin O'Malley and Doug Duncan -- are running for governor , leaving the party with a field of good, but not great, alternatives. Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin has all the respect in the world from his state colleagues, but he hasn't had a competitive race in nearly 25 years. Is he up for this? Former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume has plenty of problems that could worsen when the second quarter Federal Election Commission report is released. Rep. Chris Van Hollen is the wild card. He's the only battle-tested Democrat in the field. Van Hollen may have the best chops for what will be a very competitive general against Steele.
5. NORTH DAKOTA
Kent Conrad (D)
Last ranking: 7
The longer GOP Gov. John Hoeven stalls, the more convinced we become that he's leaning toward a run. It appears he's trying to hold off "lame-duckdom" in his gubernatorial term for as long as possible by announcing a bid as late as possible. Hoeven won't need a lot of money to make this race competitive so he can afford to wait until the end of the year.
6. MONTANA
Conrad Burns (R)
Last ranking: 17
One of the more surprising primary problems facing the Democrats is here. Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester are both solid recruits, particularly since Burns is always a slow closer. It's unclear which Democrat would give Burns the tougher race. Apparently, Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is whispering good things about both candidates because we've heard from partisans in each camp who claim the governor is behind them.
7. FLORIDA
Bill Nelson (D)
Last ranking: 6
If Nelson were the political juggernaut some Florida Democrats want us to believe he is, we'd have this seat ranked lower. But he's not. Nelson has always benefited from weak GOP opponents and, should he win re-election, that reputation will only grow thanks to GOP Rep. Katherine Harris. Divisive political figures don't normally do well in Florida, which is why we're having trouble picturing Harris actually winning. Still, Nelson's not the best campaigner, and we fully expect the former secretary of state to keep this race very close. If the GOP has wind in its favor next fall, she could pull the upset.
8. TENNESSEE
Open Seat - Bill Frist (R) is retiring
Last ranking: 5
We know we're supposed to believe Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. doesn't have a chance, but we're not there yet. Fresh off of a disastrous announcement week thanks to his uncle's arrest, Ford decided to roll the dice by going up with the very first TV ad of the 2006 cycle. This is the type of move that should convince Republicans that Ford's not going to be the pushover they expected. Spending a lot and focusing on Iraq, not his biography, tells potential Democratic donors that Ford is serious.
Meanwhile, the GOP primary appears to be no closer to being sorted out. While Bob Corker's fund-raising abilities seemed impressive early on, this next quarter should tell us which one of the two conservative candidates, Van Hilleary or Ed Bryant, will be Corker's chief challenger.
9. NEW JERSEY
Open Seat? - Jon Corzine (D) is running for governor in 2005
Last ranking: 10
Until we know Corzine's fate, this race is still undeveloped. That said, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is getting a great head start as the potential GOP standard-bearer while the three likely Democratic replacements -- Reps. Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone and Rob Andrews -- remain locked in limbo. It's a bizarre situation for the three Democrats -- raising money for a potential primary while also making a case to the one voter who matters most, Corzine.
There was a lot of pushback from supporters of the other two major Democrats when we wrote earlier that Menendez seemed to be the perfect successor. But Corzine could shock all three contenders and name a caretaker, a prospect that may not thrill the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. For now, the incumbent's got to focus on the task at hand, a gubernatorial campaign that will be tougher than many Democrats realize.
10. NEBRASKA
Ben Nelson (D)
Last ranking: 4
This state represents a great recruiting disappointment for the GOP, and the White House is to blame. By naming Mike Johanns secretary of Agriculture, President Bush took away one of the two Republicans who could probably beat Nelson. The other Republican, Rep. Tom Osborne, is running for governor and apparently has no interest in taking on his old friend. The state is Republican enough that any nominee could give Nelson a close race, but the Democrat's been pretty smart in handling himself so far. It's hard to see how the Republicans will make the case to Nebraska voters to fire Nelson.
11. WEST VIRGINIA
Robert Byrd (D)
Last ranking: 13
This race only cracks our top 12 because of the chance GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito may run. Word is her father, former Gov. Arch Moore, has been pushing Capito to join the race, and according to our sources, his advice is among the most influential to her. That said, Byrd's been taking no chances and is raising money at a surprisingly fast clip. Clearly Capito can give the incumbent a race; it's not clear whether she can actually win.
12. ARIZONA
Jon Kyl (R)
Last ranking: 16
It's not easy being the junior senator in Arizona and that fact more than any other probably contributes to the notion that Kyl is more vulnerable than he should be. The presence of a self-funding Democratic opponent, state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson, will mean this could be a long cycle for Kyl. And John McCain (R) is a double-edged sword. While we fully expect Pederson to make the case that Kyl's "no McCain," Kyl will have no more powerful endorser toward the end of the contest than the popular senator.
The previous 12 races are the one that we're fairly convinced will remain competitive the entire cycle. These next nine depend solely on recruiting by the out party. Call them our "tweeners":
13. MISSOURI
Jim Talent (R)
Last ranking: 14
Auditor Claire McCaskill might actually make this a race. We're not convinced enough to move it out of our "tweener" section just yet, but should she announce, it's yet another sign the Democrats will be making a much more serious run at the majority than any of us would have expected six months ago.
14. MICHIGAN
Debbie Stabenow (D)
Last ranking: 9
National Republicans are still searching for a candidate while in-state party officials begin rallying around the Rev. Keith Butler (R). At the end of the day, we expect Stabenow's chances to depend more on the political health of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm than any GOP Senate challenger.
15. WASHINGTON
Maria Cantwell (D)
Last ranking: 12
With almost-Gov. Dino Rossi all but out, Republicans probably are not going to be able to give Cantwell the race they would have liked. There are still a few interesting names circulating but nothing certain just yet.
You can check out the full list for a week, before it gets replaced with his new column.