OH-03: could Paul Hackett be our candidate?
Wed Aug 16, 2006 at 12:11:13 PM PDT
Democratic candidate Stephanie Studebaker has dropped out of the Congressional race in OH-03 after her arrest, with her husband, this weekend on domestic violence charges. This has already been diaried
here, and
here, and
here. It's truly a very unfortunate situation, and let's hope that her family is able to sort things out with her family.
Speculation regarding her replacement by the Dayton Daily News has immediately centered on Rhine McLin, mayor of Dayton; Montgomery County Democratic Chairman Dennis Lieberman; and Montgomery County Commissioner Debbie Lieberman. McLin and Dennis Lieberman have promptly ruled out a run. Charles Sanders and David Fierst lost the primary to Studebaker in May, and are likely ineligible to run under Ohio's "sore loser" provision. The Dayton Daily News article is here:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/...
The Buckeye State Blog has a list of candidates as well.
But let's face it - someone has to bring this up. Could Paul Hackett be our candidate in OH-03?
In that same Dayton Daily News article, Hackett said that a run "makes no sense." But let's break this down: should he do it?
Point: He doesn't live in OH-03.
The Dayton Daily News has already asked Hackett if he might be a candidate. Yesterday they reported the following:
Hackett, reached by phone, expressed shock at the news, and said his running in the district "makes no sense" because he does not live there.
Ohio does not have a residency requirement for Congressional candidates; you need not live in the district to run. He is from an adjacent district, has terrific name recognition in Dayton (the main city in OH-03), and would instantly be a viable candidate.
But it sounds as though this is a deal-breaker for Hackett, at least in part.
However...
Counterpoint: He could potentially live in OH-03, after re-districting.
Several bloggers in a diary yesterday worried that if Hackett runs in OH-03, he would be open to charges of being a carpetbagger. True, but let's think creatively for a moment.
We could, and likely will, control re-districting in Ohio after the elections in November. Hamilton County is divided between OH-01 and OH-02. Cincinnati resides entirely within OH-01. Hackett lives in Indian Hill, a suburb in eastern Hamilton County that falls into OH-02. Importantly, Dr. Victoria Wulsin, our Congressional candidate in OH-02 against Mean Jean Schmidt, also lives in Indian Hill.
Mean Jean lives one county over - Miami Township in Clermont County. If Jean Schmidt defeats Wulsin, then the following scenario could play out. Hackett wins and we reclaim the rights to re-districting, then southern Warren County and the eastern part of Hamilton County could be re-grouped into OH-03. In return, perhaps Highland and possibly Clinton counties would be re-grouped into OH-02. This would leave Mean Jean in OH-02 and would make Hackett a resident of OH-03.
Wulsin is presently within striking distance of Mean Jean. If she pulls the upset and if we have two Congressional Democrats from Indian Hill (wow, goose bumps), this re-districting is tougher. But perhaps even then, it's not inconceivable that the boundary between OH-02 and OH-03 could be drawn right down the center of Indian Hill, between and around the residences of Wulsin and Hackett.
Point: Money could be an issue.
A blogger at Buckeye State Blog has suggested that this is a money issue - that he's short on funds. Earlier this year, there were reports that his funding challenges were part of the decision to withdraw from the Senate race:
http://www.cleveland.com/...
Michael Turner has currently raised $656,474 per Open Secrets. In 2004, Turner raised $1,089,580 while Mitakides raised $448,885. In 2002, Turner raised $1,045, 016 while Carne raised $567,746.
Counterpoint: Well, there's us.
At the end of the first quarter this year in the Senate race, he had about $230,000 cash-on-hand. Per the Toledo Blade, before withdrawing from the Senate race, Hackett had a fundraising quarter of $465,779. He raised just under a million dollars during his 2005 race, though the dynamics of a special election are obviously different. And he has raised $528,664.33 to date from his Act Blue page alone.
Somehow, I have the sense that there are many, many people within the netroots that would be all too eager to write him another check.
Point: He could lose.
Michael Turner defeated 2004 candidate Jane Mitakides with 62.3% of the vote, and defeated Richard Crane in 2002 with 58.8% of the vote. Hackett would have less than thirteen weeks to organize a team, fundraise, campaign, and to try to unseat a Republican that pundits currently have in the "Safe Republican" column.
Counterpoint: He can win.
Per Jerid, at the Buckeye State Blog:
However, on paper the district is a 45% race...the most evenly divided district in the state behind Ted Strickland's former seat in OH-6. On top of that, Dayton, Ohio has experienced the second highest layoffs in the nation. People in the district are angry and ready for change.
Paul Hackett could pull it off. He was competitive in one of the most Republican districts in the country; he would certainly be even more competitive in a somewhat less Republican district to the north. This race would instantly move into a statistical dead heat, would move to a top-tier contest, and in November I believe that he wins.
Even better, if he wins, Hackett would immediately become a frontrunner for the Senate seat that may open with the possible retirement of George Voinovich in 2010.
Point: He has said that he's finished with politics.
Yes, I understand this.
Counterpoint: It can't hurt to ask, can it?
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