TX-14: Shane Sklar Can Beat Ron Paul
Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 07:42:09 AM PDT
On Tuesday, I
introduced you to
Shane Sklar. Among other things, we talked about how his background has given him knowledge on the issues, history with the district, and his experience on the campaign trail. However, in Texas, you don't only need a great candidate -- you need the right climate to win. So let's take a look at the district, who Ron Paul really is, read about his disastrous voting record, and why those all add up to Democratic victory this November.
Get to Know the District: TX-14
When looking at the map of TX-14, there is something incredibly important to remember: TX-14 is 60% different than it was in 2004. If you look at the interactive map that shows how the district has changed since 2000, you can see how drastically the district (in light blue) is, especially the tremendous change since the map was re-drawn for the 2004 election cycle. The new map, in fact, borders a great deal of Tom Delay's old district, TX-22. DeLay's district and TX-14 share borders in Brazoria, Ft. Bend and Galveston counties. Ed. note: The image is courtesy of our friends over at the Lone Star Project.
Why is that important? Many political experts believe that the constant messaging against DeLay will seep into TX-14, inspiring Democratic and depressing Republican turnout. It makes sense: the district doesn't know Paul, and based on some of the early
newspaper coverage, doesn't care much for his out-of-touch, ideological agenda.
Early polling shows that Shane Sklar is posed for an upset
A poll commissioned by the Shane Sklar campaign of likely November voters shows some excellent numbers on the race in TX-14. Among other things, the poll shows that:
- Only 33% of voters want to re-elect Ron Paul, whereas 48% want to elect someone new. 20% were undecided -- and Sklar is going after that 20%. The campaign has identified 60,000 persuadable households, and are preparing a very thorough and focused field and direct mail program for those households. According to the campaign, Shane Sklar can win if these voters change from 55% for Paul to 56% for Sklar.
- Shane Sklar leads Ron Paul 54-30% in an informed Congressional vote. Within that informed vote are 84% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans, and 58% of independents. Ed. note: Don't forget to donate here to Shane Sklar's campaign. When read a brief paragraph of Shane Sklar, voters generally support Sklar at a rate of 64%. TX-14 wants someone new, and Shane Sklar fits the profile perfectly.
- 73% of TX-14 voters are dissatisfied with Congress. Tom Delay, who is in the neighboring district, only had a 64% disapproval rating. In a year that everyone acknowledges is trending Democratic, TX-14 has one of the highest percentages of voter dissatisfaction of any Republican-incumbent district.
Ed. note: for more poll numbers on the race, inclduing a look at Ron Paul's voting record, please look below the fold.
Ron Paul's voting record is out-of-touch with TX-14
There's a reason why he's called "Dr. No." Ron Paul has voted against:
- Hurricane relief for his Gulf Coast district
- Social Security and Medicare
- Veteran's benefits and funding the VA
- The Voting Rights Act
- The Violence Against Women Act
- The Stem Cell bill
- Campaign finance reform
An article from the Washington Post led with the following:
Republican Ron Paul missed out on the 19th century, but he admires it from afar. He speaks lovingly of the good old days before things like Social Security and Medicaid existed, before the federal government outlawed drugs like heroin.
The out-of-touch ideological agenda of this 19th Century Man is the primary reason why Shane Sklar must defeat Ron Paul in November. Not because Paul is necessarily wrong on every vote, but because he rarely -- if ever -- votes for his district. Voters rated Ron Paul's voting record as "very negative" on the following key issues:
- A 53% very negative rating on his votes that oppose any Medicare prescription drug program. By the way, 31% of voters in TX-14 are over the age of 65.
- A 51% very negative rating on his votes to abolish social security. Did I mention that 31% of voters in TX-14 are senior citizens?
- A 58% very negative rating on his votes telling all doctors to refuse Medicare. Paging Dr. No: 31% of the voters in your district are senior citizens.
- A 60% negative rating for his comments (and subsequent votes) that reflect his beliefs that 85% of African-Americans are criminals. In addition, Paul is on record saying that 95% of African-Americans don't have any sensible opinions. Ed. note: Feel free to donate here to Shane Sklar's campaign.
Ron Paul's old district might have enjoyed his out-of-touch Libertarian views, but 74% of TX-14 voters prefer a Congressman who will bring home federal money and jobs over one who promotes a personal ideological agenda.
Shane Sklar Can Beat Ron Paul
Shane Sklar has the perfect background, and he's got the perfect political climate. The numbers are there, the energy is there, and the experience is there. He's got the right ground team, the right message, and the right support to win. What Sklar really needs is the money to put the field and direct mail programs into place.
Ron Paul is not going to receive tons of cash from Republicans this November -- it won't take millions of dollars to defeat him. It just takes enough to target the voters and increase Shane's name ID. The only reason Ron Paul wins today is because of name recognition -- that's it. The polls all show it's Shane's seat to win if he can get the money for the field and direct mail programs.
That's where you come in. Donate to Shane Sklar today, and help raise awareness about the most important congressoinal race in Texas.
Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report.
Permalink | 27 comments