Major hurricane likely in Gulf next week

Tropical Storm Ernesto is strengthening in the eastern Caribbean and is on track to enter the Gulf of Mexico in two days.  Conditions appear to be favorable for development into a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson category 3 or higher).  Computer model tracks begin to diverge at 3 days out (Tuesday Aug. 29), but once a storm enters the Gulf, it's going to make landfall somewhere.

Here is a good site for long-range forecasts.  Note that the track of Ernesto only grazes land features briefly, staying mostly over water, before getting into the Gulf.  More on the flip...

Storms need a number of conditions to be favorable in order to develop into hurricanes:

(1) Warm sea-surface temperatures. Here is an index to the latest data for the Gulf of Mexico.
(2) An absence of wind shear.  Wind shear is simply wind directions and/or speeds being different at different altitudes.  Hurricanes need a smooth, uniformly flowing atmosphere at all altitudes.  Here is the most recent National Hurricane Center technical discussion of Ernesto.  They are signaling low wind shear a few days out and significant strengthening.
(3) Latitude. Coriolis forces are required to spin the wind field into a hurricane.  That's why hurricanes never form at low latitudes, below 15 degrees.

Right now, the predicted location of Ernesto in a few days puts it in the southern Gulf, just when the wind shear is about to die down.  The magic set of ingredients is at hand.

The chances of Ernesto hitting New Orleans is small because its track after entering the Gulf is uncertain.  This is due to the unknown future development of an upper level low currently in the Pacific Northwest, as discussed here.  A number of scenarios are possible.  Should the anticipated hurricane aim toward Houston, the Space Shuttle Atlantis mission due to attempt launch tomorrow afternoon will have to be aborted early - a first of its kind event for our space program.

Obviously there are lots of potential political ramifications to the events forthcoming and our preparedness.

•  Very nice info and I'm not the diary police...

  honest.

  But did you not see the other very nice diary with 40ish comments already up?

  Now I just don't know what a nice girl's s'posed to do.

  by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:50:36 AM PDT

  •  I see it now...

    Many thanks.  I hope the links I'm providing are helpful though.

    -Greg

    by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:53:26 AM PDT

    •  The diaries are less than 50 minutes apart.

      I'm sure you took that much time making yours. Ack.

      by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:54:53 AM PDT

    •  They are, indeed.

      I used to live down by the Gulf Coast of Texas, but it's hard to keep up from the Ozarks ;) Guess I missed the other diary. They go by so fast!

      Thanks, Greg.

      by cotterperson on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:00:51 PM PDT

  •  I agree

    And to be honest, I don't think we really need weather reports here at all. Anyone can go to the NHC's or Weather Underground's sites to get that. Hurricanes in the Gulf this time of year are par for the course.  How preparation and recovery are handled (or mishandled, as it were) by governments and disaster management groups, on the other hand, is certainly worthy of a diary post.

    by pattyp on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:56:26 AM PDT

    •  Agree in part, Disagree in part

      No, we don't need duplicate diaries.  And yes, federal/local management/mismanagement must be diaried.

      But one tropical storm watch/weather report now and again won't kill us.  It's part of the community aspect.  And it is certainly important for all those in the area, and those with family/friends in the area.  DKos has room for diaries that are not completely political.  It helps get information out and keep us sane (that's more for the humorous ones).

      by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:59:55 AM PDT

      •  agreed

        The post-Katrina era diaries about the meteorological forecasting of that particular storm were fascinating and rightly rose to the top of the recommended list. Unfortunately, a small but very vocal group of "sour grapes" drove that poor meteorologist from Daily Kos with their complaints about the irrelevance of his diary.

        BTW, are you a student at American University? I lived there for two summers during 2002 and 2003.

        by pine on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:33:07 AM PDT

        •  I was.

          I graduated in May (though originally I supposed to graduate in 07, hence the name).  I'm now a law student at William and Mary, but I refuse to give up my user ID number, so I'm not changing my name.

          by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:48:14 AM PDT

        •  Steve Gregory was great.

          He offered great insight and analysis. My point was, I don't see any good reason to just post weather updates here, unless it's accompanied by some useful analysis or opinion. For example, the earlier Ernesto diary talked about how the diarist had just visited New Orleans a few months ago and saw with his/her own eyes how so little had been accomplished.

          Or maybe I'm just cranky because my diaries about the FL-24 race are getting almost no attention and I think they're really important since it's going to be a race all about fair and honest elections. So maybe if you all go and recommend my latest diary, I'll be less cranky. LOL.

          by pattyp on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:08:43 PM PDT

      •  love to talk about the weather

        but then us farmers always do.

        by lorenzodow on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 04:47:03 PM PDT

    •  I'm in FL-24 also...

      Clint seems to think that he will tease Feeney into engaging him in public arguments, where he can spring Feeney's vote-rigging activities onto the press.  If Feeney has half a brain (and maybe he doesn't), he'll ignore Clint.  Feeney has $1.5 million in the bank, Clint has $15k.

      That said, at least Clint is fighting.  I will vote for him in the primary.

      As far as weather goes, I just want to keep the community from being surprised in a few days.  If you have friends or family along the Gulf Coast, don't think that since this is just a TS as present and far away that there's nothing to worry about.  Time now to get the car gassed up, get the valuable documents in a watertight box, and have some water and batteries handy.  Hopefully never to be needed.

      by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:24:34 AM PDT

      •  Um, I know....

        I've lived in Florida all my life, as have most of my close friends and relatives. Anyone who's lived along the Gulf or East Coasts for even the last couple hurricane seasons has no business being "surprised" by a storm of any strength this time of year. By the same token, don't think storms that have reached TS status or higher are the only damaging ones. Floyd had decreased to a big pile of wet nothing when it flooded the shit out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey in 1999.

        by pattyp on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:01:05 PM PDT

    •  multiple diaries and weather reports

      Early this morning, I diaried on Ernesto  and the current inability of NO to weather a new storm. Despite the mutliple diary rule, mine has since been overtaken by the later two.

      Having said that, I don't object to multiple diaries on this. Why?  the whole reason for government is, well... to maintain the common good and safety... that's safety from all threats, both man-made and natural.

      There are informative commments on all three of these diaries now, and the more information the better... so keep them coming!

      by commonscribe on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:53:41 AM PDT

      •  Until we only have

        1 diary about Joe Lieberman a day, then I think something as time sensitive as hurricane reports/updates can probably be tolerated.  I'd rather read Ernesto than Joe any day.

        by a gilas girl on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:58:51 AM PDT

  •  cut him some slack

    This diary is far more informative than the previous Ernesto diary, so I'm willing to tolerate the duplication of the topic. I agree that it's good to be prudent, but I have no issue with this particular diary.

    by pine on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:30:25 AM PDT

    •  Me neither, hence my ambivalence. It's always...

      nice to combine the comments, just as it's always unwieldy to read diaries while composing one.

      by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:38:58 AM PDT

•  Ernesto and JSC

  Should the anticipated hurricane aim toward Houston, the Space Shuttle Atlantis mission due to attempt launch tomorrow afternoon will have to be aborted early - a first of its kind event for our space program.

  I'm not entirely sure why this should be the case.  Do you have information from NASA to this effect, or are you speculating?

  by WIds on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:52:26 AM PDT

  •  Landing

    They need to have the main landing strip and a back up one available for landing.  DarkSyde would probably know about the shuttle particulars.

    by Fabian on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:55:53 AM PDT

    •  Isn't the backup landing site

      still at Edwards AFB?

      by quaoar on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:05:18 AM PDT

      •  The problem is with Mission Control

        It's in a low lying area south of Houston.  It will be evacuated completely for a major storm.  So the shuttle will be brought down quickly.

        by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:08:37 AM PDT

        •  thanks for the correction! n/t

          by Fabian on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:29:54 AM PDT

  •  Probably...

    because Huston has the command center and they cannot risk Huston going down while the Shuttle is in space.

    by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:56:14 AM PDT

  •  They evacuated Johnson Space Ctr. for Rita...

    A total evacuation.  But there was no shuttle up then.

    by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:56:53 AM PDT

  •  AP article

    here.

    by jorndorff on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:06:58 AM PDT

  •  They can't do the docking w/out Johnson Space Cen

    They were saying on NPR earlier today that the problem is that the shuttle is planned to dock with the International Space Station, and they can't properly handle the docking without Johnson Space Center being up and running.

    by leevank on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:10:47 AM PDT

•  weather underground has good data too.

  Here's Ernesto's link.

  I bookmarked the hurricane/tropical storm page and it's more interesting to me to see the global picture.  I know local news has more of an impact on people, but we obsess over a handful of the storms that spawn each year.

  by Fabian on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:53:42 AM PDT

•  Oh, boy!

  What an anniversary present for New Orleans, if it follows the center track.

  Or here on Florida's central Gulf coast if is hooks right.

  I know what I'll be doing these next few days.

  by barking in florida on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:54:34 AM PDT

  •  My Dad lives in Navarre and got hit

    three times last year as well as once the year before. He's in California visiting relatives just now. I hope he stays put for the time being.

    by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:56:09 AM PDT

    •  Navarre is about 1/2 hour East of me on Hwy98

      So I know exactly what he experienced.

      by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:00:41 AM PDT

      •  I couldn't believe the devastation after...

        Ivan. Heck, you still see blue tarps and piles of debris--at least I did when I was there in June.

        Did you fare o.k.?

        by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:03:01 AM PDT

        •  We did fine

          And I learned enough from Ivan to be fully prepared for last year.  The eyewall of Dennis went right over my house, but we suffered no damage to the building-just to the trees.

          The thing that concerns me is that many people have been cutting trees down, not realizing that trees form a windbreak.  I would much rather pick up tree branches than bits of my roof.

          by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:07:43 AM PDT

          •  Just talked with my dad. He was blithely...

            coming back from the movies in Destin. When I asked him about Ernesto he said, "Oh honey, it's not coming here."

            I hope he's right.

            by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 02:35:58 PM PDT

            •  The afternoon NHC update

              has it shifting more to the East

              Link

              It's still to early to tell where it will hit, but not to early to buy food and water supplies.

              by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 04:06:11 PM PDT

              •  Looks like East is not necessarily the...

                best direction for you or my dad, though I read the easterly push comes from the shear, so if the shear keeps up maybe it will prevent some of the strengthening.

                Funny how we're all becoming meterologists. Oh, how I love the internets.

                by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 04:20:47 PM PDT

  •  Fed-Exing that generator?

    and stocking up on diesel?

    by Fabian on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:56:50 AM PDT

  •  Hell

    I'm on Florida's east coast and I'll be getting ready! Charley taught us a good lesson in 2004.

    by pattyp on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:58:04 AM PDT

•  Oh, boy!

  What an anniversary present for New Orleans, if it follows the center track.

  Or here on Florida's central Gulf coast if it hooks right.

  I know what I'll be doing these next few days.

  by barking in florida on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:58:21 AM PDT

•  National Hurricane Center

  National Hurricane Center

  Is my favorite.  It's the data the most of the other websites use, and it is really good quality content.

  by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 10:59:43 AM PDT

  •  Central Florida Hurricane site

    here has all the longer time-range model tracks that NHC is reticent to display, because long-range models have significantly more uncertainty.  However, it's good to know what the forecasters are looking at, not to second-guess them, but just to have a heads-up.

    That said, indeed NHC is a great site.  By all means, never use just one site for storm information, of course.

    by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:15:17 AM PDT

    •  It's fun to look at the longer range models

      but I don't put much stock in them more than a few days out.  A model might be dead right for one storm and dead wrong for the next one, and even averaging them has limits.

      I'd really like to learn more about the actual models-it's an interesting area.  Even just the superficial information about what each model includes is interesting.

      What these models really tell me is that here it Pensacola it's time to buy gas and water.

      by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:44:11 AM PDT

      •  Indeed

        And you know what a zoo it'll be at Publix once the TV stations start broadcasting this.

        by Greg in FL on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:53:35 AM PDT

        •  Not so many Publix here

          mostly Winn-Dixie and Albertsons, but your point is taken.

          Just got back from filling up one car, and a 5-gal can.  Tested the generator and it is working.

          We'll personally be ready, but I hope it is not too bad.  Many folks are not as fortunate as we are.

          by ForFreedom on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:18:21 PM PDT

    •  This Florida Hurricane site and its ...

      forum is great. Thanks.

      by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 06:38:55 PM PDT

•  Kharma tells me

  it's coming to Sugarland, TX.

  by robokos on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:05:17 AM PDT

•  cant you just see team bush

  on  their knees praying to the powers that be to send another hurriciane to hit the gulf state region so that they can jump into action this time unlike what happened when Katrina 'the storm of the century" hit and they were all AWOL

  it was katrina that tanked team BUSH....and like the people who lived in the gulf team BUSH has not been able to recover from katrina

  but I bet they hope they get another chance to actually act like leaders.....its sick, i know...to think our own president might be huddling with his faithbased crowd praying for another storm to hit the still devastated region but we are talking about an administration that has NO real morals and NO real ethics and a deep desire to hold onto unchecked power

  I hope this storm weakens and died out in the ocean...not because I do not want to see BUSH get a 'do over" in the gulf (which I dont) but because I care about those people who were hit as hard as can be during katrina and i do NOT want to see them suffer under the horror of another hurriciane when they havent even begun to recover from the last one that hit them.

  by KnotIookin on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:22:43 AM PDT

  •  He thought he had his 'do-ver' with Rita

    I guess he'll keep on hoping for do-overs until he regains his "war preznit" image that kept his popularity in the stratosphere from 2001-2003.

    by Progressive Moderate on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 11:24:43 AM PDT

    •  was rita the one in texas

      where we found out that Texas and team bush had no real plan for evacuating people who are under the threat of a devastating hurriciane....that wasnt a 'do over'  that was just more crap added on.

      one thing I will credit that fiasco with....

      watching the failure to be able to successfully evacuate a major city in Texas got NYC to be a lot more serious about crafting VIABLE evacuation plans should a hurricine ever hit this far north....we are deinitely not there yet...not even close but at least people in NYC are now talking about how to get the NY coastline communities succesfully evacuated.

      by KnotIookin on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:11:32 PM PDT

      •  Geeze.

        I'm trying to picture in my head the evactuation of Manhattan and other low-lying areas.

        What a freaking mess that would be.

        by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:18:22 PM PDT

        •  If a Katrina-style hurricane hits NYC

          And especially if poorer neighborhoods get taken out, don't expect the feds to have that "we are all New Yokers" attitude like they had post-9/11.

          by Progressive Moderate on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:37:28 PM PDT

          •  NYC has one thing going for it that N.O. didnt

            we are not situated 6 feet below sea level....and I dont think we have ANY illusions that the FEDS will ride to our rescue.  Like in the Gulf states...NYers will rescue NYers,  we always do.  that said I sure dont want us to be caught off guard if a hurriciane does hit our shorelines.  what with 9/11 and the east coast blackout we have had enough rescuing ourselves for the moment.

            by KnotIookin on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:59:01 PM PDT

            •  NYC is at sea-level.

              Which means, that while it won't "fill up" like N.O., it's not much better off.

              by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 02:03:59 PM PDT

              •  not really

                the majority of the NY coastline is above sea level...in some places only by a few feet though.  but new orleans was 6 ft below sea level....

                long island would be devastated though....you can kiss the hamptons goodbye if we ever got hit like the gulf states did.

                by KnotIookin on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 03:42:52 PM PDT

•  Meanwhile... FEMA

  Still can't get over the whole PR thing,
  As the Times-Picayune reports

  FEMA says they're doing better,
  but given their lack of credibility, nobody bothers to come to their Katrina anniversary dog-and-pony show on Friday...
  so now, with Ernesto looming, and the opportunity to actually put out some useful information they...
  cancel today's press conference.

  by commonscribe on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:35:54 PM PDT

•  Meanwhile, cat5 may hit Japan

  Here's an excerpt from an email my daughter (aboard the USCG Sherman) sent this morning:

  Hurricane Ioke is a category 5 that will be reclassified a typhoon when it crosses the International Date Line.  It will probably track north and might eventually become a problem for Japan, but for right now, it's exactly in our way.  The seas are still pretty good.  I hope we can stay out of the worst.

  I'm glad for the diaries on heavy storms, even if the not about politics per se. It's good for the community. I'm going to worry about the Sherman mostly, because it's my daughter out there!  But we all are going to worry about the lives these storms may take on land, too.

  by teresab on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:42:59 PM PDT

  •  Here's to hoping your daugher...

    stays safe!

    by AUBoy2007 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 01:44:19 PM PDT

•  5 p.m. discussion

  at flhurricane:

  IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
  AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
  MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
  PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

  They're also saying the storm weakening wind shear is continuing, but forecast it to weaken and allow strengthening in about 24 hours.

  by turquoise on Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 02:46:14 PM PDT