With the May 8th Primary approaching, the contest to determine which of the three Democratic canidates will get to face off against the endangered GOP incumbent Rep. Shelley Capito has been joined in earnest.
Capito has pulled off a rare trifecta:
1)The Largest Single Recipient of DeLay's funds
2)Took money from Randy "Duke" Cunningham
3)Has an aide implicated in the House Operations part of the Abramoff scandal.
This diary is intended to update you all on developments in this race and give you a sense of who these three guys are and what's at stake.
I do have a dog in this fight. Of the three Democrats competing for the nomination, only one ("Mike Callaghan") has a credible shot at beating Capito and returning this traditionally Democratic seat to the fold.
The others are damaged goods with only forlorn hopes in the general election. If we actually want to win in November, we need to rally behind Mike Callaghan now.
Read on for more.....
WV-02 is an extremely tenuous seat for Capito to hold this year. While Capito is well-liked on a personal level, the district retains a roughly two-to-one advantage for Democrats among registered voters.
Capito was able to win the seat initially in a closely contested battle in 2000. In a largely rural, coal-producing district, Capito was boosted by Bush's strong performance in a district where Al Gore's stances on global warming and registering gun owners were a double whammy at the polls.
In her winning campaigns in 2000 and 2004, it is striking how her county-by-county totals almost exactly mirror Bush's vote totals. Her close ties to Bush, who made numerous appearances in the district in each of his Presidential campaigns as well as stumping for Capito in the off-year 2002 contest, lifted Capito to victory in the past.
However, Bush's sagging approval ratings, in district as well as nationally, have turned her close association with the current administration from a plus-position to a vote-loser.
Capito's close ties to Tom DeLay, ably blogged by Davidnyc from Swing State Project ("davidnyc's post on Capito's DeLay ties"), have caused her serious damage.
In addition to being the single largest recipient of DeLay funds, Capito has pulled off a trifecta in the race to see who is most mired in the Culture of Corruption by taking money from the recently convicted Randy "Duke" Cunningham and having an aide implicated in the ever-expanding Abramoff scandal.
Capito was such a loyal water-carrier for Tom DeLay she abandoned her coveted spot on House Transportation (where she was positioned to deliver greatly needed funding for the deteriorating infrastructure of her district in the session during which the Roads Bill was being cobbled together) in favor of a post on House Rules, a committee which exists simply to rig the rules of the House in whatever manner the GOP leadership desires.
Capito subordinated the interests of her constituents to serve her corrupt political master and advance her own personal ambition.
Capito's abandonment of her constituents is not limited to the ethical lapses she regularly suffers. She has cast some very damaging votes in the last couple of years.
1) Voted to cut Veteran's Health benefits.
This district has a perecentage of active and retired miltary well above the national average.
2) Voted to end steel import quotas.
Catering to her out-of-state Wall Street Journal Republican corporate paymasters rather than protecting steelworkers jobs.
3) Voted for the PHARMA/Tauzin Average Wholesale Pricing scam in the Medicare Prescription drug legislation.
Capito sold us all out by making it illegal for the federal government to negotiate lower bulk prices. Instead, she requires the taxpayers to pay full-pop retail list price to inflate the profits of her contributors in the pharmaceutical industry.
4) Voted for Bush's changes in the Medicaid funding formula.
Despite West Virginia having one of the highest percentages of households relying on Medicaid as their sole provider of health care, Capito went along with the new formula which left West Virginia hung out to dry.
And it goes on and on. Capito is a reliable pro-life vote across the board. Capito is an unrepentant cheerleader for the failed strategy in Iraq. Capito is quite comfortable with the erosion of our civil liberties. Capito voted against toughening the ethic rules for Congress and for the rule change which would have allowed DeLay to stay in his leadership post.
In short, this is someone we need to beat on principle.
Ahhhh, but there are also extremely important political considerations we should not ignore.
If Democrats are ever to regain a majority in the House, we have to start winning rural districts like WV-02. We can't get to 218 while conceding country seats to the GOP. We must shatter the myth of GOP invincibility in such districts.
WV-02 is low-hanging fruit of this variety. It is an historically Democratic district with a huge Democratic advantage in registration. The unions remain powerful and able to mobilize voters. And, even in non-union households, the anxiety over the job drain from outsourcing is a powerful motivator working against Capito.
Capito has an advantage on social issues in the district. Even among Democrats in the district, the divide between pro-life/pro-choice is roughly 50/50. Among the GOP and Indies, there is a solidly pro-life majority.
However, we can make up what we lose on abortion by hitting on more pressing issues like health care, protecting social security, the need to implement an exit strategy in Iraq, and keeping jobs here at home. Also, with an immensely popular pro-life Democratic Governor in Joe Manchin, it will be easier to keep socially conservative Democrats and Indies in our camp on economic issues. And Capito's ethical problems will make it difficult for her to sell herself as a moral exemplar.
What it comes down to is this: we can beat Capito in 2006. We can flip a rural seat in a swing state from Republican to Democrat. Eliminating the only Republican holder of federal office in the state will set the tone very nicely for the 2008 Presidential as well.
To beat Capito, though, we need a candidate. Here are the three contendors:
MIKE CALLAGHAN:
A former federal prosecutor, Secretary of the WV Department of Environmental Protection, and state Democratic chair.
Callaghan is running a populist reformer campaign, hitting hard on Capito's ethical shortcomings, access to health care, and the need to change the way Washington works. He's calling for total transparency.
Callaghan is for getting out of Iraq. He does not set a specific timetable but is critical of the initial decision to invade, the way the war has been managed, and is firm on the goal of our policy being to get out as soon as practically possible.
Callaghan began hitting hard on outsourcing this week, making appearances in the Ohio River section of the district which has been hit particularly hard by job losses to cheap labor overseas. Prior to this week, Callaghan had focused most of his efforts on ethics issues, with a little bit of tough-on-crime positioning in a district ravaged by an Oxy and Meth-fueled surge in crime.
Callaghan has the support of the UAW, USWA, IBT, and WVEA.
Tall and sporting a shiny shaved head, Callaghan has an imposing physical prescence the others lack. His manner is a unique combination of small-town folksiness and a prosecutor's shrewdness.
I do not know how to paste an audio link but go to WVMetroNews.com ("wvmetronews") and check out Mike Callaghan's radio interviews. This guy has charisma. He will blow away the staid Capito if we can put him on a roughly euqual footing.
And he's right on the issues. Callaghan is running a grassroots campaign, utilizing persoanl appearances and free media. Imagine what this guy could do if we got him a hundred grand to wrap this primary up now.
RICHIE ROBB
Robb is the long-time Republican mayor of South Charleston. Robb has been a bit of gadfly in WV GOP politics since the 1970s. He went to the 1976 GOP Convention as an uncommitted delegate. This is a bit misleading. In 1976, Capito's father, Gov. Arch Moore, was trying to deliver the entire state delegation to Ford. As an UNC delagate, Robb had been considered a way to elect a Reagan delegate without directly defying Arch.
At the 76 GOP Convention, Robb got his first taste of national pub by flipping for Ford over Reagan ("Ny Times story".
This was the start of a series of changes of loyalties for Robb. After flipping for Ford in 1976, Robb became a staunch Reaganite as a delegate and local pol through the 80s. Abortive runs for Congress, US Senate, and Governor really never got off the ground. All as a Republican, it should be noted.
In 2000, as a Republican elector for the state, Robb attracted national pub again, threatening not to cast his vote in the electoral college if Bush won West Virginia. Oddly, Robb cited disagreement with Bush on foreign policy as his main reason... this at the time when Bush was promising we'd be a humbler nation.
Robb eventually backed down on his threat, citing Bush's overwhelming margin as his justification. This is odd as Bush didn't really blow out Gore in 2000. In any event, Robb cast his vote for Bush. At the time I figured he was just an embittered McCain supporter...which he was.
After the electoral college stunt, Robb began running a state-level version of McCain's act. He began feuding with the state party chair (one of the Warner brothers who had taken control of the state GOP...one chair, one USA, one running for Governor). In 2004, Robb ran for the GOP gubernatorial nomination and was spanked by Monty Warner in the primary.
With his future in the state GOP at an end, Robb intensified his rebel act. He began drifting father left quickly, ramrodding a resolution through the South Charleston City Council condemining the invasion of Iraq. This December he changed his registration from Republican to Democrat. In January he announced for the Democratic nomination for Congress, claiming he hadn't even considered the possibility when he changed parties the month before.
At this point, Robb's campaign is almost exclusively focused on Iraq. Robb calls for immediate and unconditional withdrawal. This stance had garnered him what seemed like the unconditional support of the MoveOn folks, especially in the DC exurb Eastern Panhandle of the district, which does tilt considrably more progressive than the main body of the district.
However, his eccentric performances on the stump have created a considerable degree of buyer's remorse among the anti-war left. Robb can't stop fidgeting. In one of the Meet the Candidates events, he held up a yard sign in one hand while staring at and playing with a glass coaster with the other throughout the evening. And he is constantly covered with a Nixonian level of flop sweat.
His years of chasing press coverage gave him a substantial name rec edge early in the race. Knowledge of his existence in combination with his bold stance on the war gave him the early lead in the campiagn internals. However, the growing sense Robb just can't win the general, along with the Callaghan campaign finally getting in gear (and owning the free media since then) has vaulted Callaghan ahead of him.
What it comes down to is this: we appreciate his guts in speaking out on the war. The City Council resolution was a nice symbolic gensture, but it was ultimately pointless. Robb can't beat Capito, so we need another candidate who can.
And I can't bring myself to trust someone with a long track record of changing sides. It's hard for me to credit Robb's various conversion experiences as genuine. He strikes me a political opportunist merely trying to harness anti-war sentiment for his own purposes. If someone turns coat once, they can do it again and again. And Robb already has done 180s several times in his political career.
Robb is a Country Club Republican pretending to be a progressive.
Literally, Country Club, by the way. As Mayor of South Charleston, he had the city pay $3 million to buy Kanwaha Country Club. Yeah, just what a city losing its industrial job base needs is to divert that kind of cash. And it remains a country club. The public has access, but the fees are high for the general public and discounted for the former private membership.
MARK HUNT:
Hunt is a State Senator and a fairly wealthy trial lawyer whose "Black Ice? Sue!" and other personal injury TV ads are run on a constant loop on daytime and late-night TV in the state.
His name rec is nearly as high as Robb's (in the low 40s) but his negatives are equal to his positives. More so than for his ambulance-chasing ads, Hunt is known for his involvement with the French Raelian cloning cult. After the tragic loss of his son, Hunt and his wife gave a lot of money ($500K in one press account, a cool million in another) to this French cloning cult in a failed attempt to have his poor lost boy cloned.
Attention was focused again on the issue in February when a bill was introduced in the state legislature to ban human cloning. Naturally, the in-state press ran to Hunt for comments. Hunt defended cloning humans in an emotionally touching and disturbing series of remarks.
His stated desire to again look into the beautiful blue eyes of his lost son was heartbreaking in its sincerity and perfectly understandable. However, there seemed to be no awareness that merely regenerating a child with the same DNA would not restore the experiences and unique spirit which made his boy who he was.
I expected Hunt to run to the left, as the champion of the little man, considering his personal injury background. In announcing he did make a feint in that direction, even stealing a bit of the ethics and real representation for the interests of the people of the district rhetoric that Callaghan had been using.
However, his main focus was on promising he'd beg and borrow to scrape together two million dollars for the race. It is important to note he did not promise to be self-financing in the manner of Jim Humphries, another and wealthier trial lawyer who lost to Capito in 2000 and 2002. And this is no doubt sensible as he doesn't have the kind of money Jim Humphries had and has.
The thing is, Hunt has barely raised a dime. Whatever he spends is going to be his own money. And I doubt he has enough. Certainly not enough to buy a new identity when folks know you as the ambulance chaser who tried to clone his son.
Even if he did, Hunt is not a popular choice among the party regulars. After Callaghan had announced and Hunt was considering entering the race, the leading figures in the state party and allied organizations pleaded with Hunt not to enter the race. Between the cloning scandal and the vauguely disreputable TV spots for his personal injury firm, everyone believed Capito would beat on Hunt like an old drum if he got the nomination.
And not many thought he had a ghost of chance of winning the nomination. The great fear was Hunt would find out he was way behind then start lobbing bombs at Callaghan and Robb, hoping to blow them up if he couldn't win. This fear is still with us. The WV Democratic Chair has publicly called for the candidates to swear off negative attacks on each other and to promise to support whomever the nominee turns out to be.
Hunt's campaign was oddly dormant until recently. While Callaghan and Robb were out working the grassroots, Hunt was a no-show. Two weeks ago, Hunt started his campaign with TV spots....largely biographical spots with a little anti-crime positioning which seems a recognition that Callaghan has either caught or passed Robb. Hunt seems to betting the ranch on a paid media campaign.
With his intial two-week cycle of spots nearly through, speculation is centered on what he'll do next. I had expected him to go negative after the bio pieces. The rumor out of Charleston is Hunt is going in a different direction. If the scuttlebutt is accurate, the next series of spots are an attempt to take the cloning scandal off the table with an ad in which Hunt's preacher sasys God has forgiven Mark Hunt for trying to clone; shouldn't you?
Hunt's been tacking to the right in the limited amount of print and radio interviews he's done. He refuses to call for pulling out of Iraq. He makes some mild criticisms of the conduct of the war and its planning but will not support pulling out our troops. Now I am wondering if Hunt has decided Robb has nailed down the anti-war left and is headed for open ground on the center-right. I do believe we've found us a Republicrat.
Hunt did get the nod from the AFT this week. It was a blow o Callaghan as he was positioned for a clean sweep of the teacher's unions. However, if one had to choose, the WVEA/NEA has more members and clout. It is also a possibility that AFT endorsed Hunt simply because WVEA is in the Callaghan camp. The two unions are bitter rivals, always fighting over recruitment.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
There is only one Democrat in this race who is not damaged goods.
Robb can't hold enough of the center-right Democrats to win in Novemeber. And he sure is not well-positioned to peel off disaffected Republicans to make up the difference. Shelley will paint him pink and dust him.
Hunt is carrying too much baggage with the cloner and ambulance chaser labels stuck all over him. There isn;t enough money in the world to buy a new identity after the saturation coverage the cloning story got in state and the cheesy personal injury ads. Capito will open Hunt up like a boiled peanut. And he's wrong on Iraq to boot.
Mike Callaghan ("Callaghan campaign site") is the only credible challenger to Capito in the general election. If we are going to flip this seat, we need to back this guy to the hilt now. Otherwise, we are throwing away a chance to shatter the myth of GOP invincibility in rural seats we must demolish to get to 218.
When Robb was running for Governor as Republican, Mike Callaghan was rebuilding the WV Democratic party. When Hunt was chasing ambulances, Mike Callaghan was enforcing the law, locking up mine operators who skimoped on safety.
This is an easy call. We have the product. We just need to give him the financial support to get his message out.
DONATE! DONATE! DONATE!
And badger the DCCC to get off its duff and intervene in this race