Given the massive evidence of the Dean slide, it is worth taking note of the Gallup poll. Gallup has continued to show Dean slipping, but at higher levels. For example, the latest numbers for 19-21 show Kerry 30, Dean 25, Clark 18, Edwards 11
More interesting, there is this from Gallup:
" it appears from an analysis of trends in the tracking data that Kerry did no better on Wednesday night than he did on Tuesday, suggesting that Kerry's margin over Dean will not necessarily continue to increase. "
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040122.asp
By Comparison, ARG for the same period shows Kerry at 27, Dean 22, Clark 19. The next night, which includes results from Thursday, Dean drops 3 points from 22 to 19 in ARG, suggesting that Dean dropped about 5 on the 22nd alone. But then, ARG showed a drop betwen from the 20th to the 21st which GALLUP DID NOT find.
Zogby also reports further Dean slippage on the 21st - though he shows Dean at 21 for the 21st, much higher for the day than ARG did.
Polling for Thursday will be critical. In another comment I wrote about how bad the press was for Dean - the front page of the Globe had 4 pictures of Dean from the speech for example. If ARG is right about Thursday, then Dean should take another significant drop in the Gallup poll. The Boston Globe provides support for the idea that Thursday found Dean reaching new lows (I estimate the Globe has Dean around 17 for Thursday). If he doesn't, we have our first evidence of serious disagreement with the polls.
Why does this matter? It matters greatly if Dean is about 20 (which Gallup suggests ) or 15, which the Globe and the ARG suggest. If its the former, Dean might hold onto second. If its the latter, he will have to fight to hold off Clark.
Speaking of Clark, while the media focuses on Dean's slide, Clark is on a good one of his own - which no one in the media has noticed as far as I can tell. In the ARG, Clark was at 24 for Jan 12 - 14. The latest ARG (20-22) has Clark at 20, only a 4 point drop. ARG also has Clark static since Iowa. THIS IS NOT WHAT THE GLOBE AND GALLUP SHOW. THE GLOBE AND GALLUP SHOW SIGNIFICANT DECLINES FOR CLARK. Consider:
The Boston Globe
Jan 16-17: Clark 24
Jan 21-22: Clark 14 (I estimate the last night has Clark at 12, or essentially tied with Edwards, who is at 11)
In other words, while ARG has Clark basically stable, the Globe shows Clark in as much of a free fall as Dean.
The Gallup shows Clark declining from 21 to 18 from 17-19 to 19-21. This is consistent with Zogby's finding that Clark has lost a point a day since Iowa. Clark also shows up at 15 in the latest Suffolk Poll taken the 20 through the 21st.
Taken together, I believe that Clark is in free fall just like Dean is. Further, it looks like ARG is overestimating Clark's support by about 5 points.
What does this mean? Here is my best guess as of Friday morning as to the true state of the race:
Kerry 33
Dean 17
Clark 15
Edwards 11
Kerry clearly has a solid lead. While Dean has declined, I believe he is still ahead of Clark. Moreover, I beleive Clark's lead over Edwards is substantially smaller than is understood. In fact, the big shock next week may be that Clark and Dean wind up in a fight for fourth.