Bush Approval and the Price of Oil

I have diaried here and here  about the relationship between Bush approval and the price of gasoline. I've pointed to the correlation graphed by Dr. Pollkatz. And the message has been ignored or disparaged.

Well today Bush's approval on Rasmussen is up to 47%, up six percentage points in three days. Rasmussen has this to say:

Those are by far the best numbers for the President since mid-February.

Apparantly the wayward Republicans are coming home to Daddy.

Does anyone think it is a coincidence that mid-February was the price of gasoline at the pump started going steadily up until its  peak in July and at the same time Bush's approval started going down.

I know people are going to say correlation doesn't equal causation (I know that, I'm an epidemiologist, but correlation is a tool for uncovering relationships that merit further investigation) and Rasmussen polls are worthless (I look at it for trends, not absolute numbers).

We have to acknowledge that something is going on here. Some people think it is an oil company conspiracy but I doubt of they can manipulate the markets for more than a few weeks. It is not just the pump price, it is the price of crude and gasoline on the futures market and gaming that for any significant amount of time would be like trying to control the stock market (oil is the most widely traded commodity in the world, according to the New York Mercantile exchange).

Does anyone but me think that this is going to screw us come November, oil company conspiracy or not?

•  idiots

  If people vote  strictly on the price of gas they are idiots and deserve the govt. they get.No doubt it helps Bush to have lower price but i think most people have their minds made up about him.Some of this is probably a post 9-11 bump and he should fall back in a few days.

  by JOEL1954 on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 09:34:21 AM PDT

  •  I agree totally.

    But given the low IQs of most voters, we probably don't need to make this argument since it will be viewed as support for high fuel prices. It is hard to think on this level, but we have to do it.

    by earthmissinglink on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:18:03 AM PDT

•  i agree and we need a reverse slogan

  my attempt:

  How do you know a Republican is lying? Listen to their answer to this question:

  If the Republicans can lower gas prices for 60 days before an election, why won't they do it all the time?

  also see this post the economy in the next 60 days

  by ca democrat on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 09:39:27 AM PDT

•  What I'm worried about is

  what happened in 2004 will happen in 2006. I remember that the Democrats were looking pretty good in June of 2004 to win that election. Then Ronald Reagan died and the remembrance of Ronald Reagan and his conservative idealism gave Bush a bounce. The bounce became momentum and the Republicans won the presidency and congress. I'm worried that the September 11th remembrance bounce is going to become momentum for the Republicans in a few days.

  The Democrats have to get their act together. They must focus on Iraq and it would be a good idea if they came up with a progressive version of the Contract with America. I think the Democrats should call their plan "The American Covenant."

  by BlueTide on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 09:46:14 AM PDT

  •  Same here.

    We can't let this thing slip away this time.

    by earthmissinglink on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:18:51 AM PDT

•  Price of gas in each state tied to Rethug view?

  I have been wanting to diary something about this topic, and ask Kossacks to supply two pieces of information: the price of gasoline in their localities, and how worried the Republicans are in their state.

  I am on my fourth annual book-selling tour from my home in Virginia to Portland, Oregon, and back. My wife and I are on the road for nearly eight weeks on this tour, driving our overloaded Ford E-250 cargo van and setting up book displays each weekend at special events.

  My hypothesis is that in states where the Republicans are very worried about the elections in two months, the price of gasoline has miraculously dropped to low levels, relative to a few months ago.

  Here is what I have observed:

  In mid-August, in Virginia, price was high, about $2.98 a gallon, and over $3.00 in some places. Virginia can probably be considered safe for Republicans.

  In Maryland, or more specifically, Frederick County, prices were just a little less, maybe five to ten cents, than in Virginia. I’m not sure how the Rethugs view Maryland.

  In Pennsylvania, prices were $2.69 a gallon. I believe the conventional wisdom is that Pennsylvania is a crucial state for Republicans and could swing either way.

  In Ohio, I recall that prices were also around  $2.69 a gallon. There seemed to be noticeable differences in prices from the east of Ohio compared to the west of Ohio, with the west being higher in prices, and I believe considered safer for Rethugs.

  Indiana, which I believe solidly for Rethugs, had high gas prices.

  Our first show was in central Wisconsin. I don’t recall noting that gas prices were either high nor low.

  In central Illinois for Labor Day, where we set up for our second show, I thought prices were low, and began wondering about the political situation in that state.

  The weekend after Labor Day, we set up in central Missouri, where I was shocked to find gas prices as low as $2.19 a gallon outside of St. Louis. I have no idea how Rethugs view their electoral prospects in Missouri, but if my hypothesis is correct, they are worried.

  Right now we are in South Dakota, and gas prices are $2.79 a gallon, I believe the Rethugs don’t feel much need to do anything special to secure South Dakota.

  We will be driving through Wyoming and Idaho to Portland after this weekend. I believe Wyoming is so solidly Republican, that I’m expecting to find gasoline is still near $2.99 a gallon. Hopefully, someone from Wyoming can let us know what prices are in that state.

  by NBBooks on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 09:56:36 AM PDT

  •  you may be on to a VERY significant point !!!!!!!

    this could prove illegal price fixing on a fairly broad scale

    by ca democrat on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:13:55 AM PDT

  •  Check out this site

    gas prices by state.

    They have historical charts too. I'd be interested to see the results of your research.

    According to the site, gas prices in Wyoming are ranging from 2.55 to 3.04 a gallon.

    by yellowdog on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:18:50 AM PDT

•  My take on lower gas prices

  As soon as I saw gas prices starting to fall in the Chicago 'burbs, my first thought was that it was election related.  It is basically a two-point reasoning:

  1. Oil company CEOs are enjoying huge tax breaks, and if Congress flips in November, they know those tax breaks may not be there much longer, so they are helping to sway the vote towards repubs in office;

  2. There has been talk of a windfall profit tax with the oil companies, and they don't want to see that come around either.

  Gas prices have been high because the oil co's in this world knew they had the support of this administration and the repub congres.  Now that there is a chance for change, prices are dropping.  Low gas won't buy my vote...low gas prices won't make up for underfunding of school programs, social security, or the VA caused by the tax cuts.  

  by Activist Girl on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:09:24 AM PDT

  •  and they won't last one day after the election

    by ca democrat on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:11:51 AM PDT

•  Time to bkow up the oil pipelines,

  when they go out of commission, the price goes down.

  by cabinetman1 on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 10:44:40 AM PDT

•  vote GOP and watch gas prices shoot up again

  every summer for the past three summers gas prices have shot up and there is no reason to they won't go up again with the GOP in power.
  This is the argument to take to the people.  Schumer was wrong to say that high gas prices were the nail in the GOP's coffin, he should have insisted what many other DEMS were hollering which was that the GOP is doing NOTHING about high gas prices.  But it seems that they knew they didn't have to do anything except wait till the fall when the oil companies "help them out"

  by gaspare on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 11:08:05 AM PDT