What a real clash of civilizations looks like

After the UN speeches I am more convinced then ever the US is going to attack Iran. Depressing.

I have been doing a little checking my sources and putting myself in an Iranian leader's shoes.

The Clash

The minute my border was crossed I would proclaim jihad because of the attack by the American-Israeli Zionist forces. Iran has recently been shipping the upgraded anti-tank weapons to Iraq militias, with jihad proclaimed have Shiite militias use them to close down land routes to the Green Zone. Have local militias overrun at least one American military outpost. Have the Shiite Iraqi leaders set free all the Shiite prisoners in Iraq.

The UK redeployment to the border near Basra far from stopping an Iranian incursion, why would they bother, wait for cheering Shiite Iraqis to urge Iranians to enter, just means they are artillery targets. The Green Zone in Baghdad and the new American military bases around Iraq have Scud bull's-eyes practically painted on them. Attack the Iraqi oil pipelines in dozens of places. Destroy Basra harbor. Iran has been testing new laser-guided bombs; see if a quick low-level air attack can get through the American AWACs and the CAP. Swarm the Persian Gulf with civilian and military boats and drop off the mines. When the war starts immediately target with torpedoes from subs and anti-ship missiles any oil tankers in the Gulf. Send boarding parties armed with missiles to the Gulf oil platforms, again.

Send suicide bombers to blow up American embassies or businesses around the world. McDonald's and Coca-Cola, bye-bye. Drop a few mortar rounds onto the United States military airfields and hospitals in Germany. The US has a helluva long supply line to the Middle East and there are ports and airfields that all have to be protected. Have small teams launch anti-ship missiles at American military supply transports - in Italy. Satchel bombs at planes headed to Iraq in Dublin.

The British position in Basra is completely untenable - sends tens of thousands of Shiites into the streets demanding they leave, during the marches have armed militia in the mobs start opening fire and swarming the British forces. You either succeed or the British enrage the population with all the civilian casualties and you have a larger angrier mob next time.

Questions - will Syria honor the mutual defense agreement? Will Hezbollah attack through the UN forces at Israel with more missiles?

There will be objections that many of these attacks won't work, that Iran and supporters will lose the battles and take thousands of casualties. The answer to this is this is what you expect. This is jihad against a militarily superior but numerically weaker foe. Casualties on the order of 50 - 1 or more means Iran will win. 30,000 Iranian and Muslim supporter casualties for 500 British and Americans dead is a victory. The secret to success in this scenario is to give the American Coalition a target rich environment but keep rolling back the defenses and overwhelm them. That and provoking more outrage in the Arab streets for the numerous American attacks on civilians.

Over the next several days see how reaction in the rest of the Muslim world is building. Then take the fight to Israel and the "anti-Muslim" Arab governments that are not supporting you. Have the Iraqi mullahs proclaim the jihad. Round-up the pro-American legislators and shoot them. World-wide have the mullahs proclaim that the mad perverted Americans and Israelis just want to destroy Islam. Order American missionaries in Africa killed.

The two real immediate goals are getting Syria active in the fight and overthrowing the weak Pakistani moderate regime.

Try to have the UN condemn the American British Israeli naked aggression and demand an embargo from the peace loving nations of the world.

Announce that Americans have used nuclear weapons in some of their attacks on your peaceful nuclear facilities, claim thousands of radiation victims. Rather they did or didn't is immaterial, leaks have made clear that Cheney wants to, but investigating radioactive debris to determine the source takes time and who would trust the Americans not to lie?

Set off riots in India demanding the government break off all ties to the murderous aggressive nuclear mad United States. Blame India for being a Zionist ally and killing Muslim rioters.

Within two weeks new Pakistani pro-Iranian government leaders, or at least the pro-Iranian intelligence forces, give you the bomb.

...

Decisions, decisions. The US Enterprise and the carrier battle group, Tel Aviv, or smuggle one on to a ship? Maybe blow to Hell the infidels in Riyadh who started the mess by inviting American Christians over to pollute Muslim holy lands?

...

There was a pro-American, support our troops rally being held in Hermann Park in downtown Houston sponsored by the Clear Channel Radio stations and several Houston churches. It stopped when there was a bright flash, then a tremendous roar of noise and wind and a wave of hot gasses from the Houston Ship Channel.

......

Nothing in the above is outlandish and I would argue nearly all of it is even plausible. Will it happen exactly this way? No. Could it? Yes.

Oh yeah, like Bush and his supporters really know what they are getting into. They remind me of the Republican conservatives who were furious at John F. Kennedy when he didn't start World War 3 over the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Since it seems too much to ask for conservatives to think responsibly could you make sure you urge everyone else to vote this November?

•  Surprised

  I had some links on Iranian  military capabilities but none of them seemed to fit.  Just a short very plausible what if.

  by eleming on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 12:50:53 AM PDT

•  how they could kill our economy with 10 men....

  Here's the one that can't be stopped and should be cause for much worry.  This is well within the capability of any of our enemies.  

  10 terrorists who are expecting martyrdom.

  10 shopping malls.

  1 day after Thanksgiving.

  24 November, Friday, the first and biggest day of the winter holidays shopping season.  The stores and malls across the US are filled with happy families.  It's late afternoon on the East Coast, perhaps just before 4pm.  

  Cars, perhaps bearing disabled-access license plates to obtain favorable parking places, pull into the parking lots at each of ten major malls from East to West.  In the trunks of these cars are what appear to be large wrapped packages.  The drivers park at about the same time: 4:00PM on the East Coast, 3:00PM in the next time zone, 2:00PM in the next, and 1:00PM on the West Coast.  

  Each driver exits his car, bearing a large shopping bag that has been suitably reinforced in a manner similar to the "booster bags" carried by professional shoplifters.  But these bags are not empty awaiting stolen cargo, they bear a cargo that will prove deadly.  

  The drivers go to the trunks of their cars, reach around to the sides of the wrapped boxes, and throw switches that are concealed amidst the colorful print of the wrapping paper.  Then they pick up their heavy booster bags and begin to walk.  When each driver reaches the entrance to his respective mall, he takes out a cellphone and makes a call.  The destinations of these calls are the packages in the car trunks.  When the cellphones concealed inside the packages begin to ring, the bombs inside the packages detonate.

  At each shopping mall there is now a terrorist standing just inside the main entrance, and a car that has just exploded in the parking lot, killing a few people who happen to be near it.  Inside each mall, there is pandemonium as the crowds do the logical thing and surge toward the doors where evil personified awaits them.  

  And into the very midst of the pandemonium strides each of the terrorsts, as he begins to take the "Christmas presents" out of his booster bag and deliver them to the anonymous panicked crowds.  First he throws a hand grenade into the crowd and then another.  As people begin to scream, he takes out a machine gun loaded with as many rounds as possible, perhaps 100 or 200 rounds, and begins firing.  The thrown hand grenades explode and the bullets fly, killing in total perhaps an additional hundred people.  As the braver souls in the crowd close in on the man, he delivers his final "gift" by pulling the rip cord on his explosive-laden garments.  

  The death toll by this time is somewhere around 150 people at one mall.  This scene is repeated simultaneously at each of nine other malls.  The total national death toll is about 1500.

  The next day a shocked America stays home, where, they hope, they will be safe from this horrific new menace.  And the next day.  And the next day.  Fearing the worst, prudent families roll back their spending plans for the holidays.  

  By Monday morning it is quite clear that the major retailers are going to take an enormous hit.  An uptick in internet sales does not convince Wall Street that all will be well after all, and the selling begins.  

  The selling on Wall Street continues.  Automatic programs kick in to shut down the exchanges before the sell-off can become a stampede.  But the damage has been set in motion.  The effects ripple through the economy like delayed shock waves from those car bombs.  It will not be like 1929 all over again, but it will be bad enough.  More than bad enough.  

  ---

  I have turned this scenario over in my head again and again trying to find some kind of countermeasure that could prevent it happening.  But the fact is that there is none.  There need be no phone calls or other tell-tale signs of organizing going on, nothing more than the usual black-market purchases of illegal weaponry and the making of ordinary conventional car bombs by ten individuals following one program that was conveyed to them long before they set foot on American soil.  

  If we want to magnify the nightmare, we could envision the scenario with multiple waves of this type.  In fact it would only take a second wave to finish shutting down American retail business for the winter.

  Iran claims to have over fifty thousand programmed martyrs.  How many do you think they would spare, to sneak into our country if they were so motivated?  

  ---

  Recently there was a terrible event in San Francisco, where a crazed driver deliberately plowed through crowds at a number of downtown intersections before the police, in less than fifteen minutes from the first 911 call, located him, immobilized his SUV with their patrol cars, and took him into custody.  That was a scenario I envisioned in late 2001 as an example of a terrorist attack for which there could be no countermeasures.  

  The scenario presented above is another example of an attack for which there can be no countermeasures.  And there is no predicting what the present Administration would do in response to such a thing.  

  ---

  Now here's something to think about.  

  Whenever you feel scared, there is something constructive you can do rather than cowering in fear.  Turn it into positive action, by going out and finding five people who are not registered to vote, and get them registered.

  We cannot let terrorists or tyrants take that away from us.  

  by G2geek on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 02:54:35 AM PDT

  •  I think that a "false-flag" terrorists attack

    before the elections is also highly likely.

    by jpk on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 03:16:36 AM PDT

    •  if they even dare....

      ....the logistics of pulling that off practically assure that information will leak to people who are not involved.  To the extent that this has anything to do with our military capabilities, patriotic (Constitution-supporting) members of the military will hear about it.  And they in turn will do whatever is in their power to stop it.  

      See also General Smedley Butler and the DuPont plot to overthrow Roosevelt.  This is not a conspiracy theory, it made it into the Congressional Record.

      by G2geek on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 04:45:49 AM PDT

      •  Who are "they"?

        I would not assume that any false flag operation would be carried out by the American government or even with the knowledge of the government.  

        A false flag operation might be carried out by another government, by renigades groups from another country or even by American crazies.

        by jpk on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 07:26:37 PM PDT

•  This just sounds like fear mongering.

  Why add to the imagination of those who are mentally unstable?

  Why don't we just come up with every possible scenario on what could happen and how easy it is and post it on this diary for every one to see.

  What difference will it make who controls the house when we give those wishing harm on us the ideas and methods to do so?

  I find this kind of scare mongering a tad irresponsible, I don't mean to criticise the diarist I think the scenarios mentioned are very plausible, but bringing it closer to home we shouldn't give any impressionable minds encouragement.

  It's like the New York Times printing the weak points of the soldiers armor for every one to see.

  by spinaltap on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 03:43:59 AM PDT

  •  I actually don't think

    this scenario will be news to anyone. It was talked about endlessly on TV in '01 and '02.

    But I do think the diarist's take is wrong.

    First, we might observe that this event hasn't happened. Now, we might attribute that to Bush's astounding competence in fighting terror; or, if we choose to remain LSD-free, we must conclude that there really aren't all that many serious, dedicated, dangerous and well-organized Islamist terrorists in the U.S. after all. You decide.

    Second, one might discuss what the proper reaction would be. In this case, it would be proper for the president to tell Americans...to go shopping. Yup. Keep going. You could get blown up. You could also just get hit by a bus. Even if the terrorists have some agents on the ground, they don't have a million of them, and they cannot keep blowing up Sunglass Huts forever.

    I agree, though, with your subject; this is indeed fear mongering.

    by Smallbottle on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 06:44:45 PM PDT

•  pakis

  "Within two weeks new Pakistani pro-Iranian government leaders, or at least the pro-Iranian intelligence forces, give you the bomb."

  When pigs fly.

  by TBarta on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 05:55:56 AM PDT