MD Sen Steele leading Cardin SUSA Poll

In Maryland, Senate Race Now Deadlocked

In Maryland's U.S. Senate race, a new SurveyUSA poll finds Ben Cardin (D) and Michael Steele (R) in a statistical tie, with Steele holding a 48% to 47% edge that's well within the survey's margin of error.

Key finding: Steele, who is black, gets 54% of white vote and 33% of the black vote, more than twice the support among blacks than fellow Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in his race for governor.

Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Martin O'Malley (D) leads Ehrlich by 7 points, 51% to 44%

I have said before that I think Steele will lose.  As a 20 year Maryland voter, it would be earth shattering news if we elected a GOP Senator.  I can't imagine it.

However, this poll shows that Cardin is going to have a tough time with African American voters and the Maryland Dem Party has lost its traditional hold on the African American vote.  

This is a direct result of the way that Mfume was treated by the Dem party insiders.  He was dismissed from day one and shut out of fundraising.  The Mfume rumors were pushed as hard by dems as they were by the gop.  

Yet he still came within 2 points (losing by 13,000 votes out of 565,000 cast) of winning.  Not a bad showing considering.

The poll suggests that the Mfume dem vote will not automatically go to Cardin.  I don't think it will ever be enough to put Steele over the top but I do think it hurts our state party tremendously.

•  Mfune needs to actively campaign

  For Cardin.  I hope he does so.

  by WinSmith on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 09:59:52 AM PDT

  •  He Will

    He said as much after the primaries.  They've known each other for years and (at least they say this) are friends no matter who won.

    Look for Mfume on the campaign trail.  Just hope it happens soon.

    by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:07:09 AM PDT

  •  Cardin & the Party

    need to show respect and some love!!!

    by serrano on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:37:24 AM PDT

  •  What Mfume does

    will make a big difference.

    by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:44:16 AM PDT

  •  Mfume will actively support Cardin

    1. They're old friends and have known each other for 20+ years.
    2. Mfume is a loyal Democrat.
    3. Mfume wants to be elected Mayor (assuming O'Malley is elected Governor), and knows he has to stay loyal to do it.

    by davybaby on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:01:11 AM PDT

  •  they will

    Cardin and Mfume both claim to be "friends," and I tend to believe that Mfume will pull through for Ben in the end. They both avoided going negative in the primary, even though Cardin easily could have.

    by pine on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 05:26:43 PM PDT

•  Feck

  I voted for Mfume in the primaries but I'm behind Cardin now 1,000% now.  He needs to counter Steele's ad campaign (and we're already seeing a shit load of ads already).

  Help Cardin get on the air all over Maryland - DONATE NOW

  by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:06:08 AM PDT

•  This poll outlies

  every other poll result.

  Not buying even for a penny.

  Maryland is NOT a close race period.

  One oter little problem for Steele - people lie to pollsters about black candidates.

  They overpoll by 5-7 percent.

  Ok, this is a robopoll but  interestingly the problem is even prevalent in robopolls.

  by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:07:56 AM PDT

  •  Other Than Baltimore and the DC Area

    I have to say that a lot of the rest of our state is more conservative than we are.  I think this is closer than we care to admit.

    If we're going to counter that then we're going to need to every single Dem out to the polls on Nov. 7th.  And to do that - we have to figure out how to appeal to other Mfume supporters.  I'm on board - but then I'm a yellow-dog Democrat.

    by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:40:15 AM PDT

•  The one ad that Steele ran

  that Kos FP'd, the one where he sat there all casual and never mentioned that he was a Republican. That was a brilliant ad. In Utah, Bob Bennett ran similar ads in his first run. They won it for him easily. Here pointing out that he was a Repub wouldn't have helped, there I think that it might be a good way to counter them.

  by high uintas on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:08:11 AM PDT

  •  Steele's Totally Trying to Portray Himself as

    middle of the road.  I like that candidates have to say on the air that they approved the message.  I think they should have to declare what their party affiliation is as well.

    by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:41:44 AM PDT

    •  We need to stick Steele to Bush

      with the biggest mofo staple gun in the universe.  And show everyone how he's been flipflopping like a landed rockfish in a craven & unprincipled grab for votes.  Ben Cardin is for Marylanders; Michael Steele is for--Michael Steele.

      by Uncle Cosmo on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:07:09 AM PDT

•  Damn!

  You know what will piss me off???

  If we win 7 races (Tester, Brown, McCaskill, Ford, Casey, Webb, Whitehouse) and lose 2 (Menendez and Steele) in BLUE STATES.

  by jgkojak on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:08:16 AM PDT

•  This doesn't surprise me.

  Steele's ads are being run in heavy rotation in the D.C. market, while Cardin is still just getting back off the ground after a primary.

  Now that Steele has told us he likes puppies, I think we develop a new strategy:

  Michael Steele Hates Pooties.

  That way, we split the dog and cat lover vote.  That's our wedge!

  Heh.

  by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:09:47 AM PDT

  •  Have you noticed

    He's not even holding a puppy in that ad? He's holding an adult Boston Terrier. It's a small dog, but it's full-grown. The real scandal? Michael Steele doesn't even know what a puppy is.

    by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:28:44 AM PDT

    •  I DID notice that.

      And picked one ugly dog to hold up, too, didn't he?

      What, a golden retriever, beagle, or Chesapeake Bay retriever PUPPY wasn't available?

      by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:31:15 AM PDT

      •  I think we'll come full circle

        When the source of an anonymous interview in the Washington Post criticizing Steele's use of an adult Boston Terrier to symbolize a puppy turns out to be the Boston Terrier itself.

        I personally like Boston Terriers, which tend to have a liberal slant in their own politics, as Tom Tomorrow makes clear.

        by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:35:28 AM PDT

      •  Hey

        Let's not badmouth the Bostons.  My boston is the cutest dog EVER.

        by clonecone on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:39:37 AM PDT

      •  The Pound is Full of Cute Puppies

        He could have gotten a few animal rights votes from that one (you know - draw in an arrow pointing to the pup and say it's a "pound puppy").

        by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:43:25 AM PDT

        •  Only problem with that

          Is that Maryland was one of the leading states in adopting Katrina dogs from New Orleans. So he might actually be holding up a victim of his Homeboy, George W. Bush.

          by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:47:46 AM PDT

          •  Excellent Point

            Wonder if there's any way to find out where they found that dog for the ad.

            by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:59:14 AM PDT

      •  Boston Terrier

        black AND white, know what I mean?

        by stitchmd on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 07:49:35 AM PDT

  •  hmmm, i always thought

    it was spelled "puddies." Since that's closer to the word pussy. Not that either is a real word. :-)

    by Aspe4 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:31:36 AM PDT

    •  Round these parts...

      they are called pooties. Or were you not aware of that?

      by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:08:58 PM PDT

  •  Or Cardin

    could run another comedic ad in response saying that the Ehrlich administration supported anti-puppy legislation 97% of the time so Steele is a hypocrite. That way Cardin can match Steele comedy to comedy and one-up him.

    by Aspe4 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:35:51 AM PDT

•  I call puppies.

  As much as it hates me to admit this, Steele's puppies ad is goood (Ben Cardin is going to say that I hate puppies.  For the record, I love puppies.)

  It's the kind of ad that you can't displace with a policy ad.  It's the kind of ad you can't displace with an attack ad.  It makes Steele look like a decent guy, and ends with appealing policy soundbites.  The first time I saw it, I looked at the TV blankly for several seconds, and then said "Shit."

  Cardin needs an ad where he's surrounded by puppies saying "I'm not worried about the puppies of Maryland, they can take care of themselves.  I'm worried about the people of Maryland.  Here's how I want to help you."

  by BrodyV on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:11:00 AM PDT

  •  It's a good ad, but here is Steele's problem

    1. At some point, Steele is going to have to say what he would actually do as Senator.  The longer he runs image ads, the more they will wear thin.  People will start asking what his agenda actually is.

    2. Cardin can say something like: Fine, Steele doesn't hate puppies.  But he loooooves George W. Bush.  That's his "homeboy" after all.  Tie Steele to Bush and he sinks like a stone.  They haven't effectively done that yet.  They will.

    by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:15:24 AM PDT

    •  agree

      especially with the "Steele loves GWB more than puppies" angle.  But I think, at this point, the ad works.  And it's got to be countered with an image ad of humor as well.

      You're right in that further down the line as the policy ads become more prevelant and important, Steele's going to be in trouble.  But I'd like to see a response that helps create some seperation now, as well.  Because the longer Steele keeps it close, the more free airtime he's going to get from the press, and the easier it will be for him to raise funds.

      My favorite football analogy?  If we can go up 28-0 at halftime, it'll take the fight right out of them for the second half.*

      *May not apply when playing the New York Giants.

      by BrodyV on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:28:14 AM PDT

      •  Or

        *May not apply when playing the New York Giants.

        The UCLA Bruins

        by SoCalLiberal on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:29:36 AM PDT

    •  What point does he have to do that?

      His puppy ad provides two things he intends to do.

      I have watched him for four years and he comes across as a nice guy.  He is not offensive in any way.

      And except for his anti-choice stance his politics are centrist.  

      And there are no votes to bring out display to the public.

      This isn't going to be a slam dunk.

      by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:50:06 AM PDT

  •  You turn it on it's head

    Puppies

    Set to visuals of dalmation puppies rolling all over each other

    VO: Michael Steele loves puppies. That's not the only thing Micheal Steele loves. He considers George Bush his "homeboy." He also loves funny stories. Like the time he claimed that people once pelted him with Oreo cookies. Problem is it never happened. Michael Steele also loves President Bush's Iraq policy, which sends our troops into harms way in Iraq with no end in sight. Did you know many of those troops are from disadvantaged minority communities. I wonder if Michael Steele's love for puppies is what they want to hear about when they can't get the armor they need to protect themselves from roadside bombs.

    Michael Steele might be nice to animals, but he's wrong for Maryland.

    Something like that...

    by mrblifil on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:39:27 AM PDT

    •  meh

      leave the Oreo bit out of it. It's irrelevant, false, and it doesn't serve anyone to repeat it. Replace that with a mention of Steele's convoluted "anonymous" Post criticism of Bush which got his campaign all tied up in knots and was followed by a quick series of denials and accusations. That's a funny story.

      by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:43:40 AM PDT

      •  Yeah, forgot that

        You're right, the anonymous candidate story is too rich.

        I do think Oreo is fair game, in that it shows that Steele is basically crazy. I think he should be forced to admit that all evidence shows that the incident never occurred. I don't think a candidate for the Senate should be allowed to make up a story about a perceived racial slight, which has basically been proven false by those who were there, and be given a free pass during the campaign. He should be called to account for that little beauty.

        by mrblifil on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:50:18 AM PDT

        •  the oreo story does shows he's crazy

          But by repeating it you give it air time and someone, somewhere, might end up believing it. Let the story die its natural death.

          by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:26:38 AM PDT

          •  I remember hearing about it

            a day or two after it supposedly happened.  Why are we sure that it didn't happen?

            by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:36:44 AM PDT

            •  You can read about it here

              As it was reported and subsequently morphed into something else. Right from the Rove Playbook.Oreo incident?

              by vcmvo2 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:51:44 AM PDT

              •  thanks n/t

                by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:06:01 PM PDT

                •  this is exactly why

                  there should be ZERO references to the Oreo story coming from our side.

                  by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:07:58 PM PDT

                  •  Not even to defend against the lie?

                    Michael Steele claims people threw Oreos at him.  It's more than likely a lie.

                    Michael Steele makes the ridiculous puppies ad and pretends its relevant.

                    Michael Steele openly lies about his party affiliation.

                    Our defense against this is to snipe against people who want to combat this stuff and to whimper that we're taking the black vote for granted--thereby insulting black voters and stooping to the same kind of racism that Michael Steele is indulging in his effort to win?

                    Not buying it.  Steele needs to be slammed hard, by Cardin, by Democratic interest groups, and by each of us when we go around talking to people.  You're right, our side is in trouble on this election.  Fire with fire.  You want to hang around examining our navels and congratulating ourselves on our high moral tone while we spend six years with that lying, opportunistic fascist in the Senate, purporting to represent us?

                    by landruajm on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 12:30:18 PM PDT

  •  Maybe I'm Jaded - But I thought it was total crap

    "I love puppies"?

    WTF does that have to do with what he'll do as our Senator?

    by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:44:19 AM PDT

•  How can this possibly be?

  How does Steele not lose by 20+ points?  How is he not 2006's Alan Keyes?

  by calipygian on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:12:02 AM PDT

  •  He's not as blatently wingnut as

    Keyes. I mean he is probably as batshit crazy as Keyes but he hides it better. And he's been Lt. Gov for 4 years. He hasn't done anything so people don't know what he is like or what he stands for.

    by yellowdog on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:34:09 AM PDT

  •  Well, unlike Keyes...

    ....Steele doesn't come across as being completely unhinged.

    by metal prophet on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:36:24 AM PDT

  •  He is:

    likable and reasonable.  He avoids conflict.  He is smart.  He is a moderate.  

    I know I am supposed to say bad things about him but I think that you guys should wake up.  He is a formidable opponent.

    by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:55:11 AM PDT

    •  His personality is moderate

      His positions are not.  He compared stem cell research with the Holocaust, for gosh sakes.

      I agree he's the best candidate the GOP could have hoped for; he ties the Dems in knots.  They don't seem to have a way of handling him that doesn't hurt them with another part of the electorate.

      I still hope that the voters actually demand that he go on record with more of his actual positions instead of this fuzzy "I'm a nice guy/I'm gonna shake things up" crap he's feeding them.

       

      by howie14 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:28:10 AM PDT

      •  Cardin's folks will rise to the occasion

        but Steele is a former Jesuit and he comes by his positions honestly.  By that I mean he seriously considered becoming a Catholic priest (spending some time in a monestary) so his positions on life will be justified as more than just political but deeply held spiritual beliefs.

        by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:40:32 AM PDT

        •  The problem is...

          ...that unless they debate, no one is going to actually force Steele to state his beliefs.  Since his missteps earlier this year, the campaign has carefully coordinated a message of NO MESSAGE.

          I have no doubt that Steele's positions are based on deeply held beliefs, but he is no more moderate than most Republicans.

          He is no reformer whose going to shake things up.  He'll vote with the majority to get involved in every Schivo/flag burning/wedge issue that comes up.  

          by howie14 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:37:07 PM PDT

•  Cardin's Campaign is Awful

  I can't recall seeing a single Cardin ad since the primary.  IN contrast, Steele has some brilliant, touchy-feely ads on the air that even have Democrats saying they could vote for this guy. Where are Cardin's ads? He is turning out to be so boring and lackluster. He needs to show some zeal, spunk, and get some bluming ads on tv now!

  by Tarheelhombre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:12:11 AM PDT

  •  Actually, that's inaccurate...it's not awful

    Cardin's campaign isn't only about ads.  In fact, his field operation is pretty damn solid.

    Remember, it's not all about ads.  If Cardin blows his wad on ads now, he's dead come GOTV time.

    Cardin does need to come down to Prince George's, though, and work it HARD.

    by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:17:58 AM PDT

    •  PG County

      will be a tough nut to crack.  Baltimore as well.  Candin can't take those for granted.

      by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:47:48 AM PDT

      •  Agreed.

        He really needs to hit Gorgeous Prince George's HARD.

        by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:56:52 AM PDT

  •  Well Cardin doesn't have as much money

    as Steele who is feeding at the house of Bush. Also Cardin had to blow money on fighting Mfume. Steele didn't have to fight anyone.

    Cardin will likely save his ads for closer to the election. He was just on the air for the primary and he wants debates, so he can bide some time before spending all his money when we're still weeks away from election day.

    If you're really concerned, send some money to Cardin. He isn't getting supported by Bush Co.

    by Naturegal on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:21:31 AM PDT

  •  he takes incumbency/loyalty for granted

    where all dem voters are concerned. 20? years in the house. his attitude through the primary season was obvious. (i caught maybe 2 primary ads here in MD-08 but lots more lawn signs in the last 3 wks.)

    reasonable, predictable and somewhat infuriating.

    by MarketTrustee on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:23:53 AM PDT

  •  You're Right

    I haven't seen any of his ads either but then we live in a pretty strong Dem district - I'm guessing Cardin's buying time in less blue areas.  Mont., PG and Howard couties, and the Baltimore area are probably pretty locked up for him.

    by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:47:01 AM PDT

    •  Although

      With the recent ads regarding the Dems / KKK connection (bullshit as far as I'm concerned) he may way to try to work a little harder to get out the African American vote in PG & Howard counties.

      Montgomery county is probably pretty safe for him.

      by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:49:04 AM PDT

•  a few things to keep in mind

  -SUSA is pretty goddamned accurate, so I'm concerned
  -That said, the heavily contested primaries JUST finished
  -Tester didn't get a lead on Burns until after a few weeks of running ads (after the primary)
  -Once Cardin's ads get going, Steele's numbers will plummet.

  Prediction:
  Cardin 55
  Steele 44

  by DrBathroom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:12:20 AM PDT

•  so much for

  his stupid "I love puppies" ad claiming Cardin would put up grany scary negative ads...looks who's lauching one of the nastiest campaigns in history. His KKK ad is beyond the pale of decency, I have never heard an ad so nasty and wrong. He's fucking scum.

  by michael1104 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:12:54 AM PDT

  •  I haven't seen a Steele ad in weeks

    So I don't know about the puppies ad or the KKK one. I'd be interested in seeing them.

    by FischFry on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:16:07 AM PDT

    •  the KKK ad

      is covered in a rec'd diary. It's a radio hit piece.

      by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:30:03 AM PDT

    •  Watch the 11:00 News

      Watch the 11:00 news on 4, 7, or 9 and you'll see the Steele ad. Every night.

      by Mister Go on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:44:38 AM PDT

      •  Puppies Puppies Everywhere

        We're seeing it 24/7 in the DC market (Mont. & PG counties).

        by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:50:17 AM PDT

    •  Where Do You Live?

      I live in MoCo and see them 5x a day.

      by skidrow on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:10:15 PM PDT

•  Tough news

  And a sign we're in for a tough fight.

  by FischFry on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:13:17 AM PDT

•  Still not too worried

  Rasmussen has Cardin by 7. Also I don't buy that twice the African Americans will vote for the GOP senate candidate over the GOP governor candidate because he's black. Hopefully Mfume comes out strong for Cardin, and they get people like Jesse Jackson to tell people not be fooled by Steel's skin color in thinking he's the better candidate for African Americans. This in not in league with NJ race. It's very much still a lean Democratic race, and could be likely Democratic by election day.

  by Christopher Liberal on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:13:35 AM PDT

•  baltimoremom

  just a quick correction. The difference b/w Cardin and Mfume was just 2% and a little over 13,000 votes. Quite impressive for someone with little money/establishment support.

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

  The numbers may change once provisional ballots are counted....

  I like the angle that you chose for this diary. Ok. Cardin wins this election. What happens in 2008? 2010? When Mikulski retires? Will AA continue to support the Democratic party in such high numbers?

  I guess the Maryland Democratic party establishment will worry about it then, huh?

  I don't think it's very wise to piss off an important part of the base continuously--not just with the Mfume issue but other issues--and continue to expect support from the AA community. One day the support just might not be there....

  by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:15:45 AM PDT

  •  When Mikulski retires...

    ....I'd like to see Martin O'Malley or Anthony Brown run for Senate. That'd be a pretty solid choice.

    by metal prophet on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:38:23 AM PDT

    •  Glenn Ivey

      Glenn Ivey for Senate.

      by Mister Go on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:46:01 AM PDT

    •  I second that Tony Brown senate bid

      I think O'Malley's got even higher (POTUS) ambitions.

      by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:49:02 AM PDT

      •  I think he's got a chance at it too

        He's got my support.

        by Alegre on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:51:25 AM PDT

        •  same here

          I like him. I just hope the DLC doesn't mangle him up too badly before he can run.

          by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:27:20 AM PDT

    •  That's why it was a mistake

      for Chris Van Hollen not to run this time. By waiting until 2010, he'll be facing possible primary competition from Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Attorney General Doug Gansler, and/or Congressman John Sarbanes.

      by davybaby on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:56:35 AM PDT

      •  If Van Hollen doesn't run then...

        he never will.  

        Of the three you mentioned, however, I'm thinking Brown is the only legit contender for the job.

        Gansler wants to be Gov someday, not Senator.  And Sarbanes will still be a tad green...but he's got the name, the pedigree, and the 3rd District thing going for him (last two Senators, Sarbanes and Mikluski, were from the 3rd...Cardin would make it three in a row).

        by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:06:58 AM PDT

      •  Well, Van Hollen

        was considering running in 2005, when Sarbanes announced his retirement. Steny Hoyer and Mike Miller chose Cardin to run against Mfume. They wanted only one white candidate to run against KW; otherwise, the white vote would have split and Mfume would have won b/c they knew he would garner the majority of the AA vote. So Hoyer and Miller made sure that the field was cleared for their chosen candidate Cardin. They did the same thing when O'Malley wanted to run against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002.

        I wonder who Mike and Steny will choose in 2010 to replace Mikulski.....

        by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:22:51 AM PDT

        •  Of course, it's possible

          that Mikulski will run again in 2010; she'll be 74.

          by davybaby on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:41:19 AM PDT

    •  Go Anthony Brown!!!

      He's a true sign of hope for diversity in our state.  And please, let us not count Mfume or Simms out.  They did not win the particular seats they were seeking this time, but that doesn't mean they aren't beloved of the voters.

      by stephdray on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:58:28 AM PDT

  •  fixed

    thanks.  those are great numbers.  our guy did good just not good enough.

    by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:26:36 AM PDT

•  nice catch. steele IS scary.

  i'd add a couple observations.

  political wire is a 'pub pollster. MOE aside, i'd expect this org to boost the party candidate's voter (ir)relevance above reality-based opinion.

  i've been an MD resident only 4 years and recently have had opportunity to review raw county demo stats; i defer to your knowledge of state politics. but i am wondering -- in the context of race-based campaign strategy -- if cardin's strength as an incumbent is also his weakness where AA voters are concerned.

  Maryland's AA voter pop is heavily concentrated in b'more, cardin's district. b'more is a dem stronghold and significantly carries the state 'blue'. but b'more also has long grappled econ and QoL isssues.

  is it probable that b'more's AAs (assuming any are sampled in the political wire poll) are keeping powder dry?

  by MarketTrustee on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:16:24 AM PDT

  •  Some inaccuracies

    First, there are more voters in Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County in Ben Cardin's district than in Baltimore City. Latest registration figures for the 3rd Congressional (where I live) indicate 131,000 voters in AA County, 100,000 in Baltimore County, and only 80,000 in Baltimore City.

    Second, I would dispute the notion that Maryland's African-American voter population is "heavily" concentrated in Baltimore City.  In fact, it is more concentrated in Prince George's County.  Prince George's County is 65% African American, with over 380,000 registered voters.  Baltimore City has 100,000 less registered voters than Prince George's County.

    Prince George's has been treated as a stepchild of Baltimore for years...that's why Steele is running ads in the D.C. media market...and making gains.

    And I'm willing to bet that the 33% of the African American vote in the poll is heavily concentrated in Prince George's County, where Steele is from.

    by wmtriallawyer on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:29:15 AM PDT

    •  And Montgomery County,

      which has the largest population of any locality in the state, bigger than Baltimore City, has a considerable AA population. Ike Leggett, an African-American, just won the Dem primary for County Executive, which amounts to winning the election. So count on Ike to be out supporting Cardin, too.

      by yellowdog on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:39:51 AM PDT

    •  dem power base shifting

      As you know the Maryland power base is shifting from Baltimore to PG/Montgomery.

      From what I can tell the new kids on the block are a lot more progressive than the baltimore metropolitan area.  

      by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:33:22 AM PDT

    •  thank you for these important distinctions

      between B'more City County, B'more County, and PG County. Cardin's district (MD-03) is one of 3 (MD-07, Mfume's former, and MD-02) dividing BC County.

      Blacks are concentrated in Baltimore City,Prince George's County source ...Baltimore has been a Democratic stronghold for over 150 years, with Democrats dominating every level of government.source

      clearly, i'm not alone in my thinking about BC, but  counting by county is either inefficient or misleading. (ibid.) wiki total pop: BC County 2005?: 2.6M, center city, 0.635M; PG 2004 County: 0.843M. counting all AAs by congressionaal district is more helpful, since they draw across counties.

      MD-02: 0.180M; MD-03: 0.108M; MD-07: 0.391.
      of course, not all of these AAs are adults or registered dem voters.

      oddly, (red) Ann Arundel (MD-05) also includes Cardin's district and borders PG county (MD-04, MD-05); by red, i mean 2004 Gore/bush and/or legislative districts. PG County AAs MD-04: 0.379; AAs MD-05: 0.200M .

      the 2 counties are nearly equal in AA pops. so it is disturbing to me to think perhaps more AAs in PG county than in BC county are active, registered voters.*why would this be*?

      MD congressional map with 2002 data points pdfs.
      i last researched 5/06. since then, i'm surprised to find radical changes to web resources, fairdata200.com [http://216.55.182.132/FairData/MD_Registration/map.asp?command=scope&annot=%7C&vis=2%7C1%7C 2%7C1%7C2%7C1%7C1%7C1%7C2%7C&map=6&width=0&table=&scope=-76612500%7C39290713%7C11.02 2044%7C10&ml0=2&ml2=2&ml4=2&ml8=2 2002 electoral and demo maps) and election.md.state.us. even wiki's updated maps.

      thank you again for bringing my inaccuracies to my attention.

      i have been sloppy.

      by MarketTrustee on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:12:58 PM PDT

•  Why do we jump on every poll

  as if it came from the mouth of God?

  No other poll shows even close to these numbers, yet we take it as gospel. Note the data:

  "900 Maryland adults were interviewed 9/17/06 - 9/19/06. Of them, 745 were registered to vote. Of them, 522 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters."

  Not a terribly big sample of "likely" voters and no other poll reflects a race this close.

  by Naturegal on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:17:46 AM PDT

•  Black leaders came out for Cardin

  I believe it was today, or yesterday, that a group of African-American leaders announced their support for Cardin.

  I can say for Baltimore, it is a city in which black folks do not vote based solely on race.  In 1999, Martin O'Malley won the mayoral primary over two well-known black leaders: Carl Stokes and Lawrence Bell.  This wasn't a 3-way divided field. O'Malley took 53% of the vote, Stokes had 28% and Bell had 17%.

  I agree with others who would be surprised to see Steele win, unless it's close and they f**k with the voting machines.

  Gee, do you think the GOP will try to suppress turnout in Baltimore and in PG County?

  by Joshua Lyman on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:28:18 AM PDT

  •  You mean

    Black voters don't just vote for black folks?

    Someone better tell Karl Rove!

    by zenbowl on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:31:33 AM PDT

    •  Trust me

      Black folks in Maryland won't get near a poll machine without a 4 hour wait. Bank on it.

      by mrblifil on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:41:19 AM PDT

  •  And which political figure supported O'Malley

    (even over his cousin) which helped O'Malley garner the AA vote in Baltimore City for that mayoral primary in 1999? And what did he get in return for that?

    Don't be surprised if Steele also tries to use that as a wedge issue against Cardin, especially in Baltimore city....

    by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:35:54 AM PDT

    •  I don't recall

      Which?

      by Joshua Lyman on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:39:41 AM PDT

      •  Mfume

        Back in 1999, there was a draft movement for Mfume to enter the race. People wanted him to become mayor so badly that they decided to waive the residency requirement so that he could become eligible to become a candidate. These leaders basically begged him to run in 1999. He demurred and made it known THEN that he wanted to replace Sarbanes as Senator. In a VERY controversial move (which is still having negative ramifications for him today), he chose to back O'Malley over his cousin.

        http://www.citypaper.com/...

        http://wbal.com/...

        What Steele's people are going to do is remind Baltimore city voters how O'Malley won with Mfume and other black leaders' support and then compare how the establishment treated Mfume, when he announced he was running for the Senate (especially since it's been known for years that he wanted to replace Sarbanes).....

        by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:13:04 AM PDT

        •  It is inside baseball

          Blacks went overwhelmingly for Glendening after he talked Schmoke into not running for guv in '94.

          I don't think they'll support Steele because of Democratic infighting, especially if Mfume makes it known that he is okay with how things turned out.

          by Joshua Lyman on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:12:29 PM PDT

  •  Stokes was supposed to win

    and a last minute scandal found that Stokes lied about graduating from college and O'Malley surged ahead at the last minute.

    African Americans aren't all that crazy about O'Malley--he is a get tough on crime kind of guy and that scares some us (white and black).  The guy likes to lock people up.

    It is generally assumed that Mfume would have been more help to O'Malley than Cardin will be.

    by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:08:04 AM PDT

•  Misleading title

  Steele is not "Leading" he has a one point lead, which given the margin of error, is probably not a lead at all.

  by Tipsy McStagger on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:33:01 AM PDT

•  I am not worried about this one

  I just don't see how steele can pull this one out.
  My reasons:

  1. Its a Democratic state. Cardin is more in line with Sarbanes and Mikulksi, the two senators that have dominated for decades than Steele is.

  2. Its shaping up as a terrible year for the GOP. Steele will have to buck the trend.

  3. It looks like Erlich is going down to O'Malley. Steele will have to buck that trend too.

  4. Cardin is now finally able to concentrate fully on the general, something Steele has been doing for two years.

  5. This is one poll. Others have Cardin winning.

  Cheer up!

  by Tipsy McStagger on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:36:04 AM PDT

•  Two sad things:

  1. White voters always say they'll vote for the black candidate and then don't;

  2. Never underestimate an African-American candidate's appeal to other African-Americans, regardless of party.

  by Jim J on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:40:28 AM PDT

  •  White voters don't always say this

    If this were true, Carol Mosely Braun, Carl McCall, Barak Obama, Wellington Webb, Mike Espy, Denise Nappier, Thurbert Baker would never have gotten elected and Deval Patrick would never have won the Democratic nomination for governor in Mass.

    by Tipsy McStagger on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:47:29 AM PDT

    •  The MD Repub Base is Rednecks

      The rural parts of MD (panhandle, Eastern Shore, Southern MD)are like the deep South and vote like them.  Steele is probably actually losing in those areas because he's black.

      by skidrow on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:16:25 PM PDT

•  Well

  I voted for Mfume in the primary but I have every intention of voting for Cardin in the general.

  Steele is not an adequate substitution for Mfume! It's cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote that way- like voting for Bush! Steele is an apologist for Bush and he'll follow through on that if elected. He's trying to play the I'm really an independent thinker to get votes! But it's based on nothing!

  by vcmvo2 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:41:31 AM PDT

•  I dont buy this poll

  This poll reminds me of the 2004 polls in NJ and MD that showed Bush threatening Kerry and then Kerry ended up winning decisively.  Cardin has work to do, but I dont believe this poll as a reliable indicator of the race.

  by jonmat on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:47:26 AM PDT

  •  survey usa is full of it

    The other polls have Cardin up nearly ten points.  This is way out of whack.  Once again this company is just making up BS.

    by davefromqueens on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:00:36 AM PDT

  •  Do you remember California being a dead heat?

    That was the SUSA poll, I think they conducted similar polls in Illinois and New York.  They really wanted Bush to win.  I guess they got their wish.

    by SoCalLiberal on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:23:50 AM PDT

•  As I keep telling Markos

  This is a race not to be taken for granted.  We are going to have to work hard here.

  by stephdray on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 10:48:10 AM PDT

  •  we take NO races for granted

    Take no race for granted at this point.

    In the end we should defend EVERY seat and sweep em all.

    Cantwell and Klobucher are up double digits in Washington and Minnesota and should win by 20 points each On Nov. 7.

    Cardin in the end should defeat Right wing extremist Michael Steele by a healthy margin but again you work as if every last vote matters.

    In New Jersey, Menendez and Kean are locked in a dead heat. However, Kean Jr. is not his father, Kean Jr. is way further to the right. Undecideds in New Jersey are not going to put a republican in the senate knowing that their vote could be the difference between Dems controlling the Senate 51-49 or Dems not controlling the Senate. (50-50 with Cheney the tie.)

    by davefromqueens on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:04:36 AM PDT

•  This line of thought bothers me

  This is a direct result of the way that Mfume was treated by the Dem party insiders.  He was dismissed from day one and shut out of fundraising.  The Mfume rumors were pushed as hard by dems as they were by the gop.

  First off, "shut out of fundraising" implies that Mfume wasn't allowed to raise money.  Do you honestly think even "Dem party insiders" have that kind of moxie?  I can believe that the MD Democrats' high-rollers chose to back Cardin--who, let us remember, is eminently qualified for the office after a long stretch in the House--but that's not the same thing at all.

  Second, you imply a level of hostility toward Mfume I have a hard time fathoming.  There is no question that he's accumulated a fair amount of personal and public baggage--the illegitimate children, the alleged sexual harassment incident at the NAACP.  Whether he could overcome that was and is a valid issue in a primary--because you know that the exploitation of "rumors" & innuendo is on page 1 of the GOP playbook.  MD Democrats who took these factors into account by and large didn't think they disqualified him from the Senate so much as feared they'd keep him from getting there--& hand the seat to the Repugs.

  Kweisi Mfume is a forceful, talented and inspirational guy, with a lot to offer the public.  I hope to see him soon in Martin O'Malley's Cabinet, or Mayor of Baltimore City, or in other high office.  But I hope first he understands what's at stake this year & hits the turf for his friend Ben Cardin and the entire Democratic ticket.

  by Uncle Cosmo on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:01:13 AM PDT

  •  good word - hostility

    I believe that there was hostility by democratic insiders toward Mfume the candidate. Without a doubt.

    by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:12:10 AM PDT

    •  Can you explain to the rest of us

      why you believe that?  Because I've been living in Baltimore for over half a century & active in MD politics since 1970, and I see no evidence of it.   I'm very interested in the evidence upon which you base for your "without a doubt" belief--care to share?

      by Uncle Cosmo on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:42:19 AM PDT

      •  We can agree to disagree.

        My view is that when Mfume announced his bid to become a Maryland Senator he should have been endorsed by the dem elite.  His qualifications were more than enough.  But instead they went out and searched for a white guy.  

        Was he electable?  Was his baggage too heavy?

        Well he came within 2 points running with no money--none--and no support from the traditional powers that be.  So I would say he was electable and his baggage was irrelevant.

        Could he have beat Steele?  The question of this diary is how hard will it be for Cardin to beat Steele?  And what, if any, are the consequences of the Mfume loss?

        by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:59:09 AM PDT

        •  If you're not going to offer any more evidence

          to back up your beliefs, then I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.

          I'm surprised that a politician as smart as Kweisi Mfume would go after the Senate nomination without adequate funding lined up.  Maybe he was determined to avoid what (it's been rumored) happened to Martin O'Malley in 2002, when he was by all accounts champing at the bit to run for Governor, but (so the rumors go) was told that the big contributors were already lined up behind Kathleen Kennedy-Townsend & if e didn't back off he wouldn't get a penny from them for any future race.  Having discovered what a PITA raising money is when he ran for Mayor, MOM stood down.  Or so it's rumored.  (Damn shame too--30 seconds in front of any crowd would've convinced them who was the real heir to the Kennedys, & Martin would've mopped the floor with Bobby Lobby in the general.)

          by Uncle Cosmo on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:30:01 PM PDT

  •  I am certain Mfume understands the stakes

    He is a very talented politician and not winning the primary didn't put an end to his political career. Unlike Joe Lieberman Mfume has class! No whining- accepted the results and I thought he ran a fine campaign! Well, I must have, I voted for him ;-)

    by vcmvo2 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:03:08 PM PDT

•  This is out of line with other polls showing

  Cardin ahead.  

  by khyber900 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:04:18 AM PDT

•  Black endorsements for Steele

  I don't have a link, but an hour or so ago, I heard on the local NPR station that Steele held an event today at which he was endorsed by 8 prominent Black Marylanders, most of whom are apparently Democrats.  I recognized a couple of the names, although I can't remember them now, but I do remember that one of Mfume's sons was on the list and at the Steele rally.  He made it clear that he was speaking only for himself, and not his father, but still, it sure doesn't help.

  I've said all the way along to the people who insisted that Steele would trounce Mfume and be trounced by Cardin that I wouldn't bet a lot of money on that.  For as much money as he has spent, Cardin has run a very poor campaign -- complete with having to fire an aide who, without the knowledge of anybody else in the campaign, was posting a blog that contained some arguably racist and anti-Semitic (and certainly inflammatory and extremely stupid) comments.

  In the interests of full disclosure, I voted for Mfume, but will certainly be doing what I can to help Cardin win.  But this isn't going to be an easy fight, folks.  Steele is doing a superb job of covering up his right-wing views.  If anybody thinks he's another Alan Keyes, it's because they aren't familiar with the guy.  (Not that his views don't pretty closely resemble Keyes', but while Keyes comes across as a nut, Steele comes across as a nice, laid-back guy.)

  by leevank on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 11:47:33 AM PDT

  •  Well Mfume Detractors Did Say...

    ...that his 'illegitimate' children would be used against the Democrats in the fall campaign.  I guess they knew what they were talking about because Michael Steele is seeking endorsements and getting the support of Mfume's kid(s) !

    by Grand Poobah on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:12:12 PM PDT

    •  keep me smiling

      funny!

      by baltimoremom on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:19:30 PM PDT

  •  This link was all I could find about

    the endorsements:

    Steele Gets Surprise Support

    U-S Senate candidate Michael Steele had a surprise visitor Thursday while campaigning with Democrats in Baltimore.

    Michael Mfume, one of Kweisi Mfume's sons, appeared at the Eubie Blake National Jazz Institute and Cultural Center after Steele held a press conference with Baltimore Democrats and other Steele supporters.

    When asked if his appearance represented his father's support for Steele, the younger Mfume didn't say yes or no. Instead, he quoted a Billie Holliday song describing how a son makes his own decisions.

    Several Democrats stood with Steele at the event, including Baltimore attorneys Billy Murphy and Dwight Pettit. Murphy says he embraces Steele's vision for Maryland, which he says isn't the same as the President's vision.

    http://wbal.com/...

    I don't think these endorsements are a big deal but I'm not sure how prominent Billy Murphy and Dwight Pettit are in the Baltimore community....

    by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 05:58:23 PM PDT

    •  Those were the names I recognized, but forgot

      They're VERY significant in the Baltimore African-American community.  Billy Murphy's family founded the Baltimore Afro-American newspaper and ran it for many years (and may still control it), his mother was a prominent civil rights leader, his father was a long-time judge (and one of the first African-American judges in Maryland), Billy Murphy himself was elected to the bench and served for a while before I gather that he got bored with it, he's got a brother who is a prominent local political campaign manager (although he seems to have been less active during the last few years), and he's got a sister who is (or at least used to be) the director of the Washington office of the ACLU.  The Murphy family has traditionally been almost royalty in the Baltimore African-American community, and if Billy is doing this on his own, the Cardin campaign had better get some endorsements from other members of the Murphy family very quickly.

      Dwight Pettit is also a very well-known local attorney, alhough I would say not as influential as Billy Murphy and the rest of the Murphy family.

      The bottom line is that this isn't good news for the Cardin campaign -- not at all.

      by leevank on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 06:37:17 PM PDT

      •  Is Billy Murphy related to Arthur Murphy?

        Is Arthur Murphy the one that you refer to as the prominent local political campaign manager? I've heard of him only briefly in connection with other names like Larry Gibson and Julius Henson for knowing how to GOTV of AAs, particularly in Baltimore.

        Thanks for clearing up my misunderstanding of the importance of Bill Murphy's endorsement of Steele today. I'm still learning and Baltimore politics seems so complicated....

        by ademption on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 07:30:35 PM PDT

        •  Yep, Arthur Murphy is the brother

          He was a law school classmate of my wife.

          by leevank on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 08:15:26 PM PDT

•  Steele Repudiates KKK Ad

  Maryland Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele is calling on a group running a radio ad encouraging black Marylanders to vote Republican to take their ad off the air.

  The Washington-based National Black Republican Association's radio ad that aired in Baltimore identifies Martin Luther King Jr. as a Republican and blames Democrats for founding the Ku Klux Klan. Democrats are complaining that the ad distorts history.

  Steele calls the ad "insulting to Marylanders."

  "Although they may have had good intentions," Steele said, "there is no room for this kind of slash-and-burn partisan politics in the important conversation about how to best bring meaningful change to Washington, DC, and get something done for Maryland."

  Let others do the dirty work, then take the high road. Perfect strategy for Steele.  This guy is going to take the race down to the wire.

  by Grand Poobah on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 12:00:48 PM PDT

  •  WBAL radio...

    ...is leading the "news" each half hour with Steele's condemnation, a clip from the ad containing all the juicy parts, and a reminder that "you can hear the entire ad at WBAL.COM".

    When the Cardin blogger was exposed recently WBAL emphasized the blogger, not Cardin's firing of same.

    by howie14 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:43:44 PM PDT

•  Some quick updates

  IIRC, Chris Matthews said that Mfume would appear on his show Hardball tonight. I'm sure that Matthews will give Mfume plenty of opportunities to formally endorse Cardin....

  Also, an update on the MLK radio ad by Steele support