Updated Weekly Senate Rankings (MD and WA Tighten)

Following is my weekly updated ranking of all of the Senate races in 2006.  Included is a discussion on changes from last week and other notes from the last week of news for the Senate campaigns.  Last week's rankings are here.

Changes from last week:

Montana and Ohio swap spots (with Montana moving to the 2nd most vulnerable Republican seat and Ohio now 3rd).  Most prognosticators have had Montana in the number two spot all along.  I had Ohio in that spot for the last couple of weeks or so because the polls in Ohio had been a bit more consitently favorable for the Dems.  However, the most recent polls in Montana seem to be consistently reflecting a strong 4-9 point advantage for Tester.  Ohio still looks great for Brown, but does appear to be a little bit tighter of a race at this point.

Washington and Michigan swap spots (with Washington moving to the 4nd most vulnerable Democratic seat and Michigan now 5th).   Both of these races look pretty good for the Democratic incumbent.  Michigan had looked a little more competitive as of late, with a close poll here and there and given Michigan's strong economy.  However, I think it is safe to say that Washington is the more vulnerable seat at this point.  With new cash on hand numbers available in the Washington race it is clear that McGavick will be well funded.  Cantwell still has plenty of cash, but seems to have a pretty high burn rate.  Also, Rasmussen has a not yet released poll with only up 48-42.  Still, the vast majority polls seem to indicate that Cantwell doesn't have too much to worry about.

Close to changing:

Tennessee and Missouri.  Tennessee continues to pick up steam.  I'm tempted to move it ahead of Missouri.  But Missouri is still the slightly more likely seat to flip to the Democrats.

Other notes:

New Jersey and Maryland.  New Jersey istill appears to be in serious jeopardy at this point.  Kean has maintained a slight lead in all recent polls.  Maryland has also given some signs of being more competitive as well.  A recent SurveyUSA poll actually has Steele in the lead by 1.  While that poll is clearly an outlier at this point, it does appear that Steele is running a strong campaign and has made this race one to continue to watch.

If the election were held today.  I'm still going to stay with an optimistic (but still fairly realistic) projection of Democratic pick-ups in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island, Missouri and Tennessee with no Republican pick ups.  This would give Democrats control of the Senate. New Jersey and Virginia are the next most likely races to flip.

The races are ranked by most likely to switch parties and I have separate rankings for seats currently held by Democrats and seats currently held by Republicans.  The approval numbers are from SurveyUSA's most recent 50-state tracking poll and are as of August 17.  The polling numbers are the most recent from Rasmussen in addition to the most recent non-Rasmussen poll I could find (no partisan funded polls included and no online Zogby).  Also included is the composite numbers from the last 5 polls taken in the race according to Pollster.com.  Cash on hand numbers are the Second Quarter numbers filed with the FEC and are current as of June 30 unless otherwise noted.

Without further ado, my (somewhat subjective) rankings:

Republican-Held Seats

 

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum	48 - 45	Republican Rick Santorum Democrat Bob Casey	Casey 49 Santorum 39 (9/20)	Casey 46 Santorum 41 (9/18)	Casey 49 Santorum 40	Santorum $9.4 million Casey $5.2 million
2	Montana	Conrad Burns	39 - 55	Republican Conrad Burns Democrat Jon Tester	Tester 50 Burns 43 (9/20)	Tester 48 Burns 45 (8/27)	Tester 49 Burns 44	Burns $2.2 million Tester $0.5 million
3	Ohio	Mike DeWine	42 - 48	Republican Mike DeWine Democrat Sherrod Brown	Brown 47 DeWine 41 (9/13)	Brown 52 DeWine 42 (9/20)	Brown 48 DeWine 43	DeWine $6.6 million Brown $3.7 million
4	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	51 - 44	Republican Lincoln Chafee Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse	Whitehouse 51 Chafee 43 (9/15)	Whitehouse 45 Chafee 40 (9/19)	Whitehouse 44 Chafee 41	Whitehouse $1.5 million Chafee $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
5	Missouri	Jim Talent	52 - 41	Republican Jim Talent Democrat Claire McCaskill	McCaskill 45 Talent 42 (9/12)	McCaskill 48 Talent 47 (9/13)	Talent 47 McCaskill 46	Talent $6.9 million McCaskill $2.7 million (Through 7/19)
6	Tennessee	Bill Frist	Retiring	Republican Bob Corker Democrat Harold Ford	Corker 45 Ford 44 (9/5)	Ford 48 Corker 45 (9/11)	Ford 45 Corker 45	Ford $1.8 million Corker $1.2 million (Through 7/14)
7	Virginia	George Allen	51 - 38	Republican George Allen Democrat James Webb	Allen 50 Webb 43 (9/12)	Allen 48 Webb 45 (9/12)	Allen 47 Webb 46	Allen $6.6 million Webb $0.4 million
8	Arizona	Jon Kyl	53 - 36	Republican Jon Kyl Democrat Jim Pederson	Kyl 50 Pederson 39 (9/19)	Kyl 48 Pederson 43 (9/18)	Kyl 48 Pederson 41	Kyl $6.7 million Pederson $1.5 million (Through 8/23)
9	Nevada	John Ensign	50 - 38	Republican John Ensign Democrat Jack Carter	Ensign 50 Carter 41 (9/6)	Ensign 54 Carter 33 (8/12)	Ensign 52 Carter 39	Ensign $3.2 million Carter $0.4 million (Through 7/26)
10	Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison	61 - 32	Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky	Hutchison 58 Radnofsky 32 (8/31)	None	Hutchison 55 Radnofsky 35	Hutchison $9.2 million Radnofsky $0.3 million
11	Utah	Orrin Hatch	60 - 34	Republican Orrin Hatch Democrat Pete Ashdown	No Poll Available	Hatch 61 Ashdown 27 (8/28)	Hatch 63 Ashdown 21	Hatch $2.5 million Ashdown $13,000
12	Maine	Olympia Snowe	72 - 24	Republican Olympia Snowe Democrat Jean Hay Bright	Snowe 68 Bright 20 (8/17)	Snowe 68 Bright 10 (7/21)	Snowe 64 Bright 24	Snowe $2.2 million Bright $100
13	Wyoming	Craig Thomas	61 - 31	Republican Craig Thomas Democrat Dale Groutage	Thomas 59 Groutage 32 (7/6)	None	Thomas 62 Groutage 29	Thomas $1.0 million Groutage $4,000 (Through 8/2)
14	Mississippi	Trent Lott	66 - 31	Republican Trent Lott Democrat Erik Fleming	Lott 66 Fleming 29 (2/13)	None	N/A	Lott $2.0 million Fleming $600
15	Indiana	Dick Lugar	59 - 33	Republican Dick Lugar	No Opposition	No Opposition	N/A	Lugar $4.0 million

Democratic-Held Seats

 

(Through 8/30)

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	New Jersey	Bob Menendez	42 - 43	Democrat Bob Menendez Republican Tom Kean	Kean 44 Menendez 39 (8/30)	Kean 48 Menendez 45 (9/18)	Kean 44 Menendez 41	Menendez $7.4 million Kean $2.3 million
2	Maryland	Paul Sarbanes	Retiring	Democrat Ben Cardin Republican Michael Steele	Cardin 50 Steele 43 (9/13)	Steele 48 Cardin 47 (9/19)	Cardin 48 Steele 42	Steele $3.1 million Cardin $1.6 million (Through 8/23)
3	Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Retiring	Democrat Amy Klobuchar Republican Mark Kennedy	Klobuchar 47 Kennedy 40 (8/28)	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 36 (9/18)	Klobuchar 51 Kennedy 38	Kennedy $3.4 million Klobuchar $3.0 million (Through 8/23)
4	Washington	Maria Cantwell	55 - 38	Democrat Maria Cantwell Republican Mike McGavick	Cantwell 48 McGavick 42 (9/20)	Cantwell 56 McGavick 39 (8/27)	Cantwell 50 McGavick 40	Cantwell $5.1 million McGavick $2.8 million
5	Michigan	Debbie Stabenow	51 - 42	Democrat Debbie Stabenow Republican Michael Bouchard	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 43 (8/31)	Stabenow 54 Bouchard 41 (9/17)	Stabenow 52 Bouchard 41	Stabenow $4.4 million Bouchard $0.5 million (Through 7/19)
6	Connecticut	Joe Lieberman	53 - 43	Democrat Ned Lamont Republican Alan Schlesinger Independent Joe Lieberman	Lieberman 45 Lamont 43 Schlesinger 6 (9/14)	Lieberman 47 Lamont 45 Schlesinger 3 (9/18)	Lieberman 48 Lamont 41 Schlesinger 4	Lieberman $3.5 million Lamont $0.4 million Schlesinger $76,000 (Through 7/19)
7	Nebraska	Ben Nelson	67 - 27	Democrat Ben Nelson Republican Pete Ricketts	Nelson 55 Ricketts 32 (9/20)	None	Nelson 55 Ricketts 33	Nelson $2.1 million Ricketts $1.1 million
8	West Virginia	Robert Byrd	65 - 32	Democrat Robert Byrd Republican John Raese	Byrd 63 Raese 30 (9/5)	Byrd 59 Raese 30 (5/22)	Byrd 59 Raese 31	Byrd $2.6 million Raese $0.2 million
9	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	Retiring	Independent Bernie Sanders Republican Richard Tarrant	Sanders 62 Tarrant 34 (8/3)	Sanders 58 Tarrant 33 (9/19)	Sanders 59 Tarrant 34	Sanders $1.7 million Tarrant $0.5 million (Through 8/23)
10	Florida	Bill Nelson	47 - 38	Democrat Bill Nelson Republican Katherine Harris	Nelson 57 Harris 34 (8/28)	Nelson 53 Harris 38 (9/13)	Nelson 55 Harris 31	Nelson $12.1 million Harris $2.2 million (Through 8/16)
11	North Dakota	Kent Conrad	74 - 21	Democrat Kent Conrad Republican Dwight Grotberg	Conrad 57 Grotberg 35 (1/25)	None	N/A	Conrad $3.5 million Grotberg $19,000
12	California	Dianne Feinstein	53 - 42	Democrat Dianne Feinstein Republican Dick Mountjoy	Feinstein 58 Mountjoy 35 (9/7)	Feinstein 56 Mountjoy 34 (8/27)	Feinstein 55 Mountjoy 35	Feinstein $8.0 million Mountjoy $21,000
13	Wisconsin	Herb Kohl	56 - 37	Democrat Herb Kohl Republican Robert Lorge	Kohl 60 Lorge 33 (9/14)	Kohl 63 Lorge 14 (7/2)	Kohl 57 Lorge 30	Kohl $1.6 million Lorge $2,000 (Through 8/23)
14	New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman	57 - 33	Democrat Jeff Bingaman Republican Allen McCulloch	Bingaman 56 McCulloch 32 (9/7)	None	Bingaman 58 McCulloch 30	Bingaman $1.8 million McCulloch $2,000
15	New York	Hillary Clinton	61 - 35	Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican John Spencer	Clinton 61 Spencer 31 (7/31)	Clinton 62 Spencer 32 (9/7)	Clinton 58 Spencer 34	Clinton $22.2 million Spencer $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
16	Delaware	Tom Carper	59 - 30	Democrat Tom Carper Republican Jan Ting	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Carper $2.5 million Ting $53,000 (Through 8/23)
17	Hawaii	Daniel Akaka	51 - 40	Democrat Daniel Akaka or Ed Case Republican Jerry Coffee or Mark Beatty	Akaka 58 Coffee 30 (7/31)	None	Akaka 58 Coffee 30	Akaka $0.4million Coffee (No Report) (Through 9/3)
18	Massachusetts	Ted Kennedy	56 - 40	Democrat Ted Kennedy Republican Kenneth Chase	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Kennedy $8.6 million Chase $63,000 (Through 8/30)

•  Heading Down The Home Stretch

  Dems looking good, but lots of very tight races.

  by DemUnity on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:10:14 PM PDT

•  Come On, New Jersey!

  What is New Jersey doing to bring this seat home for Menendez?

  I will be FURIOUS to go home to my winger relatives at Thanksgiving and have to listen to them gloat.

  by kath25 on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:19:33 PM PDT

•  I am worried about MD and NJ

  That being said, as both are Democratic states, if the national mood continues to be sour agains the GOP, both Kean and Steele have to swim upstream against very negative currents. But Cardin and Menednez need to get their act together now. Or Carter and Pederson need to get their acts together. Whatever the case two of these four, especially MDa and NJ, need to tip back to the Democrats.

  That Ford is doing well in TN and that Webb is doing well in VA means that they both might cancel out NJ and MD. However, I am disappointed with how Cardin and Menendez seem to be faring.

  by jiacinto on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:23:06 PM PDT

  •  It's just one SUSA poll!

    Rasmussen has Cardin up by 7 points. Unless Rasmussen shows a tighter race soon, or if a second pollster shows something along the lines of SUSA's results, then I won't worry.

    by Progressive Moderate on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:38:27 PM PDT

•  Quite frankly,

  If MD goes GOP here, then you all should pack your bags and leave. Because, as far as I'm concerned, this country is so beyond screwed.

  Republicans everywhere should be losing by a landslide. That they are competitive and may even win tells me it is not the politicians we should worry about, it's the American people.

  Am I crazy to be shocked that the Republicans aren't being run out of town on a rail????

  What the hell is wrong with these voters?

  by Dunbar on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:42:40 PM PDT

•  Kean's Questionable Contributions

  From Wikipedia:

  On September 15, 2006 the Star-Ledger reported, "the same day state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. voted twice to let Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey keep a $40 million tax exemption, he collected $13,300 in contributions for his U.S. Senate race from 17 company executives and their family members[11]. Kean cast the votes on the final day of the fight over the 2005 state budget and on the day of those votes, records show Kean received $13,300 in campaign donations from the Horizon executives, including $4,100 from Horizon CEO and president William Marino and his wife, Paula. The news report noted, "Aides to Kean said there was no connection between the votes and the contributions."

  Didn't see anything about that here. No link? Smells fishier than Port Elizabeth...

  by kath25 on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:47:57 PM PDT

•  why, oh why

  Is George Allen still ahead?  Maybe this week's polls will be better.

  by Kristi from Arkansas on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:52:46 PM PDT

•  Redux

  NJ looks bad.

  We need six seats.

  This means that we need to hold onto MD, and that we need to pick up PA, MT, OH, RI, MO, TN and VA.

  And, if Lamont doesn't win (and I can't figure out how the CT race was ranked), we need Lieberman in our coalition to get a majority, which is a close call race seems like an iffy thing.

  Democrats really need about three more percentage points to swing in their direction nationally to seal this deal.

  by ohwilleke on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 05:56:55 PM PDT

•  Steele is not running a strong campaign

  He has been one nightmare mistake after another. Stem cell researchers as Nazis, anonymous interviews where Steele trashes the GOP then takes it back, using election fraud to confuse people about whether he is a Democrat or Republican, refusing to debate Cardin.

  This is not a strong campaign. Forgive the bluntness, but if he wasn't black, he would be in the low 20s in his polling numbers.

  His color is all that is keeping him in this race. That and big money from Bush Co.

  by Naturegal on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 06:59:32 PM PDT

  •  I would take him very very seriously

    We can beat him but we can't take it for granted.

    by baltimoremom on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 07:43:26 AM PDT

•  SUSA numbers are wacky

  They always have a higher portion of black voters going GOP than most other polls.

  by JamesB3 on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 08:24:51 PM PDT

  •  SUSA is pretty reliable

    but in Maryland its early and Steele jumped out first with ads, pr and free press.

    by baltimoremom on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 07:42:01 AM PDT

•  Time to move on

  A lot of us who were Mfume supporters are dissapointed by these early polls showing Cardin and Steele neck and neck since that was argument NOT to vote for Mfume--that he couldn't beat Steele.

  NEVERTHELESS, time has arrived to blast Steele out of the water on the issues.  He is a right wing religous nut with a moderate personality.  Likeable wingnuts are the worst kind.

  by baltimoremom on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 07:41:07 AM PDT