October Surprise - Indictments for Democrats

Expect the GOP October surprises to include indictments of Democratic candidates for the House, between Halloween and election day.  

It doesn't matter if the indictments are worthless, if they are thrown out six weeks or six months later, or if the indicteds even go to trial and the charges are found worthless.  The indictments will have done their job of grabbing the headlines, distracting the public from GOP corruption, and tipped some elections.   Remember, Rove promises Every Trick In The Book.  This old trick goes back to my childhood.

Candidates for indictment:  whom might they be? William Jefferson, D-Louisiana. Alan Mollohan, D-West Virginia, now under investigation.  And John Murtha, D-Pennsylvania.  

Says whom?  Well, besides me, Capitol Hill Blue reports on Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW)'s recently released second annual report on the most corrupt members of Congress entitled Beyond DeLay: The 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress (and five to watch).  17 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 5 to watch.  

CREW's Most Corrupt Members of Congress:

Senate:

    * Conrad Burns (R-Mont.)
    * Bill Frist (R-Tenn.)
    * Rick Santorum (R-Pa.)

House:

    * Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)
    * Ken Calvert (R-Calif.)
    * John Doolittle (R-Calif.)
    * Tom Feeney (R-Fla.)
    * Katherine Harris (R-Fla.)
    * William Jefferson (D-La.)
    * Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.)
    * Gary Miller (R-Calif.)
    * Alan Mollohan (D-W.V.)
    * Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.)
    * Richard Pombo (R-Calif.)
    * Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.)
    * Pete Sessions (R-Texas)
    * John Sweeney (R-N.Y.)
    * Charles Taylor (R-N.C.)
    * Maxine Waters (D-Calif.)
    * Curt Weldon (R-Pa.)

Five Members to Watch:

    * Chris Cannon (R-Utah)
    * J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.)
    * Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.)
    * John Murtha (D-Pa.)
    * Don Sherwood (R-Pa.)

I would also look for Democratic candidates for the House or for governorships, candidates who face corruption charges that might conceivably lead to indictments.  In Wisconsin, the GOP has been trying to paint Democratic Governor Jim Doyle as corrupt.  

Will the Democratic Party find any aggression in its leadership or membership, the tits it takes to use this information for our collective advantage and avoid getting beaten up in October?

Bets.  

•  El Tip Jar

  by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:12:38 PM PDT

•  You ain't takin' my money!

  Of course, if they invade Iran, they might not need this particular subterfuge.

  by Jim Hill on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:13:38 PM PDT

•  Makes Sense--

  Fox is running CIA agents explaining how the Clinton admin pulled them off Osama all the time. MSM is running the story of the IRS assault on the CA liberal church for politicking.

  I'd expect indictments of Dems and don't be surprised if there's some arrests of Dem gov't workers and some media types over leaks.

  by Gooserock on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:14:37 PM PDT

•  every trick in the book

  shotgun effect.

  Invasions, Indictments, Interfering with the vote. .  .

  by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:15:18 PM PDT

•  1st Vote for Oct Surprise Is Osama. Here's How

  They have him almost pinpointed so they're hyping the death story to make him feel safe enough to blunder.

  Then they spot him and pick him up in time for the election.

  by Gooserock on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:16:25 PM PDT

  •  I'd bet on bin Laden if I had to bet

    Getting him is a long shot for the GOP.

    by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:19:04 PM PDT

    •  Heard that

      Talk about the gang that couldn't shoot straight - the dumb bastards are even in the wrong country.

      by SCFrog on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:32:26 PM PDT

    •  Of course Bin Laden's

      been dead before.  

      It's sort of like the Al qaeda # 2's they keep catching.

      by CTLiberal on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:37:21 PM PDT

  •  Id almost bet

    it was going to be Osama...until the French leaked the report. Now it will be hard for the preznit to "announce" OBL's death and mention nothing about how or when he died.

    Thank you France

    by ex99125b on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:43:13 PM PDT

    •  That was my first thought

      The someone the French government decided that the "OBL captured reality" was not going to be allowed to fly.

      Thanks, to the French, for sparing us yet another Bushite myth.

      by TDW on Sun Sep 24, 2006 at 04:52:49 AM PDT

•  The only one who is a possibility is Jefferson

  The others aren't likely before a lot of investigation.  You won't find many defenders of William Jefferson around here.  Murtha was only on the watch list.  I think October indictments of publicans are more possible but even those are unlikely.  The courts don't like to appear to be taking sides in political contests. They'll wait until after the elections before taking action.

  by dougymi on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:18:05 PM PDT

  •  Well, I would point you to history

    This is how it was done back when I was a tadpole in DC .. . and it was done in Ohio, Illinois, that I know about in state races. .

    by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:20:57 PM PDT

    •  For what?

      Indictments just before elections?  Maybe, but I think it's rare.  Jefferson hasn't even been indicted and he was caught with tainted money in his freezer.  I just don't see it.  I'm wrong a lot, though.

      by dougymi on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:23:26 PM PDT

      •  naw, it aint rare

        it was sop when I was a kid. .

        by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:07:08 PM PDT

        •  I'm no spring chicken myself

          and I only recall a couple of cases and they were all local county commision type cases.  I'm sure there were more in michigan, but I can't recall them. Definitely not at the federal level this close to an election.   Still, with abu gonzales as AG, anything is possible.

          by dougymi on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:25:37 PM PDT

          •  No spring chicken, eh?

            Reminds me of my grandmother.  I just saw a post upthread about a conservative site and facts which I questioned and now I just noticed your sig.

            Now I am convinced, if Reagan told Rethugs in 1988 that facts were stupid things, any self-respecting conservative wouldn't be caught dead with facts on their blog.

            Rec for your sig line

            PaintyKat

            by PaintyKat on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:53:48 PM PDT

        •  No, it wasn't. Ever. You're making shit up. Stop.

          by RonK Seattle on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:45:15 PM PDT

      •  I'm with you dougymi

        I can't recall any.  Perhaps the poster could provide some examples.  

        PaintyKat

        by PaintyKat on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:50:31 PM PDT

  •  Read the link on Jim Doyle.

    If they possibly can, they'll hang Ms Otis's dog's shit on the mayor or the governor, if she's/he's a Dem.

    I'd expect to see some Sedition indictments come out of THIS inJustice Dept against Dems.  Let's nail Kucinich and Barbara Lee for "aiding and abetting the ememy."  

    After five years of watching with shock and awe what these pricks are capable of, I guess I believe they'll try anything they think will work.  Rationality and legality have nothing to do with it.

    Watchfulness, and swift retribution.  These are qualities we will need in abundance in this election cycle.  And it's up to us; the Dem staffers will have their hands full just campaigning.

    by Jim Hill on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:26:47 PM PDT

    •  Jim, I am almost convinced the public expects

      only lies and dirty tricks out of these jokers and will be hardpressed to believe anything late in a race because some folks who voted rethug in 2004 in spite of their misgivings are not going to do it a second time.

      Our priest doesn't think they have a chance.  He told me Democrats would have won in 2004 if they had just given Catholics a bone.  Found our conversation interesting.

      PaintyKat

      by PaintyKat on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:57:23 PM PDT

    •  Kucinich isn't even under investigation

      Not even Mike Dovilla would claim he should be indicted. Get off it already and go do some canvassing or something to get your mind off the bogeymen in your head.

      by anastasia p on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:50:10 PM PDT

  •  Would be nice if they would spank Doolittle

    CD 04 in California.  Charlie Brown according to the last poll I saw was in a dead heat race and when I made my first contribution folks thought Charlie didn't have a chance.

    Charlie's son flew Doolittle out of Iraq and Doonothing planted himself in the cabin and left his GOP peers, including Katherine Harris in the back of the military craft.  I guess no surprises there, who would have thought Rethugs thought of anyone but themselves.

    But, don't let anyone try to tell you that Doo-nothing cares about our troops because he didn't even speak to any of the cabin crew members.  The Commander let him know at the end of the flight that Charlie Brown's son had flown him home. :)

    If you are in Calif. or anywhere for that matter, consider his campaign for a contribution or volunteer.

    PaintyKat

    by PaintyKat on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:48:41 PM PDT

•  Murtha saddens my heart

  Say it ain't so, John.
  You are so right about the war.
  I hope to hell you didn't profit from special interest earmarks.

  by crystal eyes on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:18:26 PM PDT

•  Used-to-be-extraordinary rendition

  They'll probably just grab any Democratic candidates who are leading, and send them to Syria.

  (/snark - ?)

  by tle on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:31:03 PM PDT

  •  Not even

    Just another "accident" involving any small aircraft they might be inside.

    by SCFrog on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:34:00 PM PDT

    •  Law of averages suggest we're due...

      ...for a high profile GOP candidate to go the next time, eh?  Aside from Wellstone - a horrible loss - there was that Missouri business which ended up with Sen. John Ashcroft "losing to a dead man".

      by Land of Enchantment on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:10:04 PM PDT

      •  A GOoPer

        Will go down in a plane right around the time Diebold machines throw an election to a Democrat.

        by SCFrog on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 11:58:59 PM PDT

•  what do they have on Murtha?

  I've been away, missed this entirely.

  links?

  by skywriter on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 08:53:03 PM PDT

  •  Here ya go on Murtha

    Josh Marshall's TPM

    Washington has witnessed a storm of "pay-to-play" corruption scandals in Congress over the last year, both admitted and alleged. And on the campaign trail congressional Democrats are charging the GOP with creating a "culture of corruption" on their watch. Yet if they win, they are poised to hand a much-abused spending post to a Democrat with a long reputation for porkbarrel politics and "back room" deals.

    If the Dems take control of the House in November, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), now lauded by Democratic activists for his tough stand on Iraq, is poised to retake the helm of an appropriations panel charged with spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense-related projects, which he last chaired in the early 1990s. He may even ascend to be Majority Leader in a Democratically controlled House.

    Yet Murtha -- who U.S. News and World Report once called "one of Capitol Hill's most accomplished masters at the art of pork" -- presides over a tightly connected network of favored lobbyists, former staffers and major campaign contributors that bears a striking resemblance to those maintained by some of the tarnished Republicans he would likely replace.

    Murtha's office declined my request for comment on this article.

    by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:10:16 PM PDT

  •  Heard something about it...

    ...maybe on C-SPAN.  Maybe Melanie Sloane getting interviewed by Joe Scarborough.  Or something.  Something associated with Defense Appropriations, IIRC.

    by Land of Enchantment on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:13:31 PM PDT

    •  It's a bit longer a tale than that.

      Remember Abscam?

      Here are some facts on Murtha in a conservative
      blog.

      by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:16:33 PM PDT

      •  How could you call anything on a conservative

        blog facts? Don't facts generally include evidence or proof?

        PaintyKat

        by PaintyKat on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:43:29 PM PDT

        •  check the facts first

          they're solid.

          by marthature on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:44:41 PM PDT

  •  Maybe

    ...they'll bring a very delayed charge related to Abscam. Statutes of limitation, schmatutes of limitation.

    by jorndorff on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:05:10 PM PDT

•  I'm assuming the Heather Wilson ads...

  ...against Patricia Madrid (pay-for-play for $100k contributions!) are bogus.  But they've been running all week, and Madrid has yet to counter them.  I hope something's coming sooner rather than later from the Madrid camp.

  This baby's a real catfight, folks.  Cheap media market and a lot of money.  I'm already sick to death of the ads, and I'm not even in the durn district!

  by Land of Enchantment on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 09:03:43 PM PDT

•  nah...I don't think so.

  See the thing about "inditements" is that it requires you to convince a number of people in a grand jury that you have enough evidence to support an inditement.

  They may announce "investigations" but I would be surprised if they are able to pull off fluff inditements en masse.

  by DawnG on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:07:58 PM PDT

•  Rove's perfect revenge

  I mean it sounds like him.

  Here we've been pounding the "culture of corruption" republicans, PLUS Rove had the Plame indictment hanging over his head for a couple of years.

  I'm sure he would LOVE to hang that on dems. As they say, he loves to turn a strength into a perceived weakness. This would do it...

  So, I'd say he could easily have that up his sleeve - he's that smarmy. And, or course, he's got the Justice Department in his pocket - I'm sure he could get a prosecutor or two to do his bidding. Whether he could actually pull it off and make it work is the question...

  Of course, we can always hope that Patrick Fitzgerald will come through for us and indict the whole WH Iraq Group at the end of October - wishful thinking, I'm sure...

  by everhopeful on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:26:55 PM PDT

•  Don't see it

  It took months (years!) of investigation to nail blatantly ultra-corrupt people like DeLay, Cunningham and Ney. I don't see them being able to do the fancy legal footwork to start indicting Democrats for next to nothing a week before the election.

  We need to stop quivering like babies about what the Republicans are going to "pull" and get out there and help our candidates win. I am really getting tired of hearing every far-fetched doomsday scenario trotted out to discourage progressives from having any hope at all and ultimately, cause many to throw up their hands and say it's not worth voting.

  Just stop it, ok?

  by anastasia p on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 10:47:30 PM PDT

•  capital hill blue = National Lampoon

  by robokos on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 11:47:45 PM PDT

•  Get to work on Graphics and Charts, please

  Those who can, PLEASE have them ready.
  Maybe even pre-empt with LTEs, etc.

  Quicky visuals to put the Dem vs. GOP scandals in perspective.

  Flybite vs. Cartload

  Also, if we can find what would have prevented the misdeeds--are there Dem proposals that GOP shot down? I remember, for example, GOP not accepting Dem proposals on ethics, on oversight, etc.

  by LNK on Sun Sep 24, 2006 at 12:20:34 AM PDT

•  The October Surprise will be a play for sympathy.

  Just you wait and see.

  by Big Nit Attack on Sun Sep 24, 2006 at 07:16:25 AM PDT

  •  I should be more specific....

    Bullies always make a play for sympathy when an "unfortunate" circumstance places them exposed to the public eye. It's a common ploy of spoiled rotten bullies. That's what will happen here, too, and it won't work except with the wingnuts that are close to wavering.  

    by Big Nit Attack on Sun Sep 24, 2006 at 07:21:16 AM PDT