The Republican Perfect Storm

Nice job putting pressure on ABC folks but I hate to piss in your cereal. The Republicans are lining things up so they will  keep their majority in congress. I know folks around here discount what ABC News The Note says, but they do have a reputation for being right. The folks at The Note seem to think the Republicans are doing very well right now.

More after the flip...

Consider:

1. The President's detainee gambit -- tactically boffo enough to bring the Los Angeles Times Ron Brownstein off of book leave for only the second time (Be the first to name the other story that did that and win a prize: e-mail the answer to [e-mail]) -- is given universal praise by the Gang of 500 for ensuring the fall debate will be more about who can keep America safer from terrorists, and, thus, for putting the Democrats on the defensive. LINK

2. Buried in David Roger's Wall Street Journal Hilly wrap-up is this vital verbiage: "Mr. Bush met later with House and Senate leaders on the fall agenda, including a set of security-related bills he wants in relation to the war against terror. And mindful of the failure thus far to reach agreement on immigration overhaul, the administration signaled a greater openness to using emergency funds to appease voters worried about border security." (Was there a borders-only-until-the-lame-duck-session deal struck yesterday?)

3. Dean Broder of the Washington Post shames the Fourth Estate into apologizing to Karl Rove for being mean to him. LINK

4. The first canary dies, as a BushRoveMehlman friendly "independent" group (re)emerges from the shadows to begin what will be an onslaught backed by tens of millions of dollars for national security (and, then, more under the radar, social issues) messaging to voters to rev up a base that does not want Charles Rangel to chair Ways and Means.

From the creators of "Ashley's Story" (LINK), comes a new round of political advertising this midterm election year.

The conservative organization "Progress for America" is slated to have a 1:00 pm ET press conference to announce a TV ad buy, Internet campaign, and other grassroots activity reminding Americans about "the reason for the War on Terror." This comes in the wake of President Bush making major speeches on the topic this week. It should be Noted that PFA has recruited the father of Flight 93's Todd Beamer, David Beamer, as its spokesman for this announcement. The ad -- the full script has not yet been released -- is entitled, "They Want To Kill Us."

The ad is expected to address the War on Terror, 9/11, the USS Cole, and the first World Trade Center bombing among other things and is expected to start in one state today on broadcast television plus national cable, Internet, and quite a bit of direct mail. Expect the ad to run for a week to ten days before PFA starts rotating in the next spot. Note to broadcast network executive producers: just TRY to resist using this as an element tonight. Note to cable producers: you are going to use it, no matter what we write.

Perhaps Howard Dean or some twenty-seven-year-old from MoveOn or Rangel himself will lead a Thursday/Friday Democratic comeback, but, for now, give September 4-8 to the GOP.

Now, I'd like to wait and see if this latest push by the Republicans has an effect on people's opinions so I'm willing to hold off the panic until I see the numbers.

There is something else that has me wondering, and that is gas prices. I drive down the street this week and notice gas has gone down to around 2.50 a gallon, and wonder if the Republicans and their friends in big oil are manipulating the price of oil downward while also looking to scare the population with the terror threat again.

This is an old gambit by the the Republicans they used this during the 80's but back then it was the commies in the Soviet Union that were used as the boogie man, but the gas price gambit is straight out of Clinton's playbook. Back in the 90's I remember gas at eighty nine cents a gallon before the elections.

The last piece of the perfect storm puzzle is going to come in the form of some sort of terror alert in October, the October surprise if you will.

Gas prices, the focus on the boogie man that is terrorism, and a terror alert in October, that will be the perfect storm that stops the Republicans from losing their toehold on congress.

•  Any Time you want to be depressed...

  ...Visit the Note, or realclearpolitics, or anywhere in freeperville.

  ...That doesn't change the 64% of Americans who think we are on the wrong track.

  ...BTW had the vote tabulators not been fiddled with in 2004 the Note would have been spectacularly wrong.

  by Blue Shark on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:27:55 PM PDT

  •  I don't read freeper blogs. Too depressing

    Don't watch Fox News. Don't listen to right wing radio. It makes me a happier person. I do watch C-Span, and listen to people and pollsters who give their opinion. The opinion is that DEMS win. That said, we still have two months.

    by linnie on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:31:17 PM PDT

  •  Furthermore...the Note is bullshit

    Americans don't feel "safer" under the Bush dictatorship - how could they? - the fuckers are after our civil liberities, after our kids to join the military to be canon fodder in their wars for PNAC causes, and they're after even our fucking bottled water that we used to bring on an airplane because coach sucks.

    The scumbags had 5 years to catch Osama, even if they paraded him naked through Times Square at this point, most Americans would get the point.

    Most tellingly, there's one word missing from that "gee whiz what a clever leader Dear Leader is!"  And that word is:

                            Iraq.

    by Mumon on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:52:55 PM PDT

    •  The polls...

      are still showing Bush's numbers are strong when it comes to terrorism, and he is playing to his strength. Iraq is a mess, but how many people know the hows and whys? How many people dig deep into the issue of Iraq? Last month I bought three foreign policy journals, I read all of James Fallow's stuff about Iraq, and I think I know quite a bit, but if I talk to folks about it most of them give me a blank stare.

      I play a lot of poker and one of the things I have learned when reading other players is not to assume poker knowledge, I think we need to not assume the electorate is fed up. I think the electorate has reacted to the high gas prices and that is why Bush has seen his poll numbers drop. Gas prices are now coming down in time for the election, watch Bush's numbers take a jump up.

      by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:00:18 PM PDT

      •  Take a deep breath, jbou, this has hardly begun.

        Dems are pushing hard, which is why you see the slew of GOP responses being unleashed. Problem for them is rapidly increasing numbers of Americans perceive Bush Republican rhetoric for the flapdoodle it's been all along. This means the mass of Americans are emotionally inoculated against GOP/NeoCon/Freeper fear mongering--that is, we're furious, and getting angrier by the day. What the Republicans failed to take into account is that the public, when aroused against one or the other political party, tends to be implacable in its desire to see political justice done to the miscreants it has located in its crosshairs. Just happens to be the Bush/Cheney/Rove/Rumsfeld/Gingrich/DeLay/Abramoff Republicans' turn.

        Rather than chosing to be fearful, why not enjoy the show, while savoring this quote from Sun Tzu:

        "Securing ourselves against defeat lies within our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy lies within the enemy himself."

        and this one from ancient Iran (ahar!):

        Use your enemy's hand to catch a snake. -- Persian Proverb

        by Enough Talk Lets Get Busy on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:31:58 PM PDT

        •  I'd like to enjoy the show...

          but i am used to winning. I was an athlete, and when I played I won, I like winning, but I am on a team that has shown some serious incompetence. If the Democratic party had a coach he'd have been fired a long time ago.

          by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:42:52 PM PDT

        •  Alas...

          The Note has spoken, cancel the election, all is lost.....

          by baghdaddy on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:59:11 PM PDT

      •  Gas prices won't come down far enough.

        They are dropping some, but now inflation has taken hold. This inflation will not abate easily, and the federal reserve is going to attempt to control it by raising interest rates (despite the dip in gas prices). And housing values are levelling off as the price of mortgages increase. In other words, people are feeling less wealthy and more vulnerable as real wages go into decline. A small decrease in gas prices is not going to reverse this effect; I think the Republicans are in for a rough ride....

        by catullus on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:32:36 PM PDT

•  Fie

  What a bunch of crap!
  Meetings in Washington and the attitude of news media darlings don't mean a damn thing compared
  to how the large middle majority of American voters feel about their government -- and I don't need to tell you what that is! Every poll, of any origin,
  screams it: time for a change.
  mrmyster

  by mrmyster on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:27:55 PM PDT

•  Tweety said it was going to be a tsunami

  for Democrats.  Charlie Cook agreed. It is still too early to tell.  But Rove et al probably have a lot more dirty tricks in the bag. Maybe even a wag the dog kind of thing where they stage some kind of terrorist attack. That is my fear.

  by linnie on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:28:02 PM PDT

  •  No more dirty tricks

    They had two: terrorism and "moral values." No one is talking about moral values at all and they've lost control of the terrorism story line. Their problem is that their two tricks worked so well up until now they never bothered to develop any others.

    by anastasia p on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:33:21 PM PDT

  •  this 9/11 movie on ABC is a dirty trick

    to get us off focus. It's to get the Democrats to spend the next several weeks whining about Clinton vs. Bush, and away from the message that the Republican House & Senate have been derelict in carrying out their oath of office.

    Rove and friends will continue to drop little bombs - including the whole "secret prisons" admission - just to get our attention diffused. We'll be bitching about so many things - many of them long past - that we won't focus on the key message voters need to hear, the one that will get more people to the polls - that America is much better off if we do not let the Republicans control the White House, both houses of Congress, and the Judiciary. This is the message that will get weak Ds, Rs and Is to the polls and vote for Democrats.

    by land of the free on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:37:28 PM PDT

    •  Which is why we need to keep working

      I'm canvassing on Saturday and doing a visibility on Sunday (and possibly tomorrow, if I can get out of work on time). Who's with me?

      by boofdah on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:39:06 PM PDT

      •  you betcha!

        Thumbs up to you!

        I don't think there will be many weekends between now and November when I won't be canvassing.

        I hope others are doing all they can to help Democrats take over the House and Senate this fall. Our country - and our democracy - cannot afford to let them continue to be in control. They have not earned the right to continue spending our money so carelessly and to disregard their duty to ensure the constitution and laws of our country are executed properly.

        by land of the free on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:46:34 PM PDT

    •  It's a dirty trick, all right...

      The Swift Boating of Hillary Clinton has begun. The whole point of this ABC program is to diminish the stature of the Big Dog so that he will be less of an asset to Senator Clinton, should she decide to run for the presidency. The Republicans are trying to drive her out of the race early by giving her a preview of what is to come.

      by catullus on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:58:56 PM PDT

  •  "where they stage some kind of terrorist attack.

    Yup. That is my fear also.

    by Bulldawg on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:00:59 PM PDT

  •  Did you see the Osoma video released today?

    I find it very, very interesting, to say the least, yesterday Bush makes a speech and talks about Ramsey Bin whatever his last name is, and surprise, surprise, a video makes it's way to Al Jezzera today, with Osoma and Ramsey bin whatever in it. A historic video. As if to say, I told you this guy was a bad guy, look he is in this pre 9/11 video with Osoma. I don't know why,(call it a gut feeling) but I  am pretty well convinced that video was in our possession. I feel it was aquired by our military, probably when we captured one of those many number 3 Al queda henchmen. This is definatly crunch time for Bush, Rove and the Republicans, so anything goes. Fear has worked well for them in the past, and so too did another stock Bin Laden video on the eve of the 2004 election. Another trait of Rove is to always do the complete obvious, so obvious that  people would never accuse you of it because it is just too obvious. If any journalist has the balls enough to investigate, and if someone dug deep enough one would find out that video was not sent to Al Jezzera by al qeueda, but by someone with afilitations to Karl Rove. This is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a informed opinion based on the way these people operate. Get people angry and scared about 9/11, and they will hold on to Bush and his Republican Congress, instead of the "can't protect you Democrats". The Democrats have to stop counting the seats in the Congress they don't yet have, and start questioning everything that comes from the Bush administration, and I mean everything.

    by Vera Lofaro on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:08:48 PM PDT

•  Jesus, get a grip.

  Can't anyone tell the difference between saying something and saying something effective and convincing?  Bush is going to have terror related bills on the Hill and....what?  So fricking what?  

  And they are going to run on Charlie Rangel being chair of Ways and Means?  In a country that can't name as many Supreme Court justices as three stooges, that's going to be effective?  You know who knows who Rangel is and what W&M does?  Geeks who write The Note, people who haven't won a political race in their lives and figure that someone who won one or two before MUST know what they are doing.  Well, past performance not an indication of future performance.

  by Inland on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:28:45 PM PDT

•  Not only crazy but clinically depressed

  I think you need to see a doctor instead of despair-mongering here. Everyone is starting to come to their senses about this Republican trash, and they're out of ammo. "The Path to 9-11" is out of their control; the CIA prisons thing is revealing how criminal this adminstration truly is.  Nothing they have "lined up" has stayed in line for them.  Terror alert in October? Sorry, they pulled the gambit in July (first ever red alert) and it failed; there's nothing left.  "Give September 4-8 to the GOP"???? It's been a nightmare for the GOP, and may rank as the week in which they definitively lost the election. You are in the old loser "they're so brilliant they can't be beat" mindset. Get yourself some Xanax or something and then go out and do some phone-banking or some canvassing.

  Sheesh.

  by anastasia p on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:30:49 PM PDT

  •  who the hell are you?

    I have worked for politicians going as far back as the early 90's, and have watched people be over confident and lose, so don't tell me to go phone bank or knock on doors, been there and still doing it.

    Folks like you get too wrapped up in your own propaganda and when you get beat sit and wonder why.

    I see the Republicans making moves, and like I said, i am willing to wait until the polls come to see if this latest gambit has any effect on people, but we shouldn't take this stuff lightly and assume it isn't working.

    by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:49:25 PM PDT

    •  Direction of Country Poll

      Direction of Country
      Poll----------------Date-----------Right Direction------Wrong Direction
      RCP Average--08/17 - 09/02------23.8%---------------69.3%
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

      Congressional Job Approval---AVG--Disapprove-- 59.5%
      EVEN Fox News ---------------------Disapprove--- 61% !!

      President Bush Job Approval
      Fox News---------------------Disapprove-- 56% !!

      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

      Apparently; anastasia p IS the 'sane one'!!
      

      by Breeze54 on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 10:16:10 PM PDT

•  No.

  People are too pissed off about Iraq, and Bush's trust (and by extension that of the Republicans) is gone.  They can't get it back with circus antics.

  by slippytoad on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:31:14 PM PDT

  •  Don't ever underestimate the enemy!

    The very first rule of combat. And make no mistake this is combat.

    by Vera Lofaro on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:12:26 PM PDT

•  So far...

  people think I'm crazy. That may be true, but I still think that if gas prices come down far enough then that will make people feel better and they will be less likely to want to throw the bums out.

  by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:32:19 PM PDT

  •  If "they" feel better, they might not vote at all

    which means WE get to vote and throw the bums out. :)

    by boofdah on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:37:30 PM PDT

  •  But income is still stagnant

    and the ARMs are going to reset soon.  Falling gas prices don't mean diddly when the mortgage goes up several hundred dollars per month and inflation keeps eating miniscule wage gains.

    by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:00:57 PM PDT

    •  Inflation?

      the inflation that has been eating wages has been fuel costs, if those come down then people will feel better. How many people have ARMs? and do you think there is enough of them that vote and that will vote Democratic?

      by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:03:04 PM PDT

      •  We'll use me as an example.

        Just lost my job.  Managed to find a new one.  Pays less than the old one, but my rent still goes up 3-5% every year--this year more than 10%!  Hence, my meager 2-2.5% annual raise doesn't even cover my rent increase, let alone fuel increases.  Yes, inflation is eating me alive and it's not even gasoline prices--try food, heat, clothing, etc., etc.  I don't even have to include gasoline to be losing ground.  Further, I can't buy a house because prices are insane.  Can't come up with the down payment nor the outrageous monthly mortgage payment I would have to make at current prices.  Finally, throw in healthcare costs for a simple trip to the Dr for strep or what-have-you.

        I simply have to dispute the idea that saving $10 on a tank of gas is going to be a large factor in this election.  Maybe I'm wrong, but gas prices are only one small piece of my financial puzzle and low prices aren't going to fix my problem.

        I suspect it's true for most people, too, though I don't have any hard evidence besides all of bonddad's great economic diaries.

        by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:36:56 PM PDT

        •  sounds like...

          you are the poster person for why we need unversal healthcare and a whole bunch of other programs to help soften the burden on our working folks. The problem I see is the Democratic party isn't hammering the republicans with this. I see the Dems getting beat to the punch when it comes to this whole bullshit war on terror thing.

          by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:48:46 PM PDT

          •  Well,

            If people continue to vote like frightened sheep, they will get the same old thing, doesn't matter how bad it is as long as you can make them afraid that the alternative is worse. Of course, the sheep drag the rest of us down with them...

            by baghdaddy on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:04:22 PM PDT

          •  Not just me.

            I think the majority of people in America could be the poster person for our economic woes.

            However, I do understand your frustration with right-wing tactics.  I just think we need to celebrate a victory now and then or we risk burning out.

            by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:08:02 PM PDT

            •  I'll celebrate the victory...

              when we actually have won.

              by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:13:24 PM PDT

              •  asdf

                Well, I guess I'm trying to be glass half-full instead of half-empty tonight.

                I don't know what sort of victory you are looking for, but I think Lamont winning the primary was a victory, Scholastic attempting to rectify the PT9/11 materials was a victory, and Jon Tester within breathing distance of Conrad Burns is also a victory of a sort.

                Oh, and how could I forget the Brian Schweitzer is the Democratic Governor of MT now!  That was a huge victory!

                I can't wait for a total victory.  It will take a long time and I may be dead before it comes, so I will celebrate when I can.

                by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:21:23 PM PDT

                •  Victory is control...

                  of the House and Senate. Victory is liberals building an infrastructure to counter the right wing, victory is universal healthcare signed into law. Lamont beating Liberman was a shallow victory, I like Schweitzer but I don't live in Montana. If Tester wins I'll raise a glass to him because I believe he will help move the country in a good direction. I want to win before i die.

                  by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:26:16 PM PDT

      •  I see that you don 't eat.

        Been to the supermarket lately? Food prices are up.

        As are clothing prices, auto prices, housing prices, mortgage interest rates, electronics prices, and  on and on. Inflation is here now, and it is a growing threat to the middle class.

        by catullus on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:42:10 PM PDT

        •  I have

          milk is still 2 bucks a gallon, bread is still 2.50 for the whole grain I like, meat is still cheap, I saw apples today for twenty five cents apiece. Food prices haven't jumped as much as you think, well at least around here they haven't, and i shop for four people each week.

          by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:46:08 PM PDT

          •  That's not what I hear

            in the aisles and checkout lines at my local markets. Wages are down, prices are up. Whether that translates into change at the ballot box is unknown until election day.

            by baghdaddy on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:08:25 PM PDT

          •  Might I ask

            where at (general region--doesn't need to be specific)?  Food prices have jumped in my neck of the woods.  I pay $3.50 for a gallon of milk and I have a thirsty toddler...

            by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:14:41 PM PDT

            •  I am in Amherst MA

              milk ranges in price from 3.50 at a couple of stores to 2 bucks at the local convience store, we also have a local dairy that gives a good deal if you need a lot of milk.

              by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:17:32 PM PDT

              •  I always hear good things about

                Amherst.  You aren't that far from me.  I guess we are just getting squeezed in Rhode Island or maybe I'm not a savvy enough shopper.

                by MTgirl on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:23:21 PM PDT

          •  Inflation

            according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending July 2006:

            Cereals and bakery products: up 2.5%
            Fruits and vegetables: up 3.7%
            Gasoline: up 29.6%
            Housing fuels and utilities: up 10.2%
            Medical care: up 4%

            The good news is....

            Meat, poultry, fish, eggs: up .2%
            Dairy products: down -.4%

            From and article by By Dan Sewell, of the Associated Press:

            The ripples are affecting the everyday economy. As big companies try to offset increased costs for energy, transportation and raw materials, the result is a creeping inflation. While recent economic data indicated that inflation pressures are easing, consumer surveys show inflation worries are contributing to declining confidence about the economy.

            More price increases appear to be coming.

            In recent earnings reports, company after company has reported plans to pass along the higher costs in their products, from Energizer Holdings Inc.'s batteries to Eastman Kodak Co. film; Whirlpool Corp. appliances to Clorox Co. household cleaners; Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. beer to meals in some Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants.

            The federal Labor Department reported a July core consumer inflation increase of 0.2 percent, the lowest in five months.

            But core inflation, which excludes energy and food, has risen by 2.7 percent over the past 12 months.

            Jay McIntosh, Chicago-based Americas director for retail and consumer products for Ernst & Young, said while the costs of gasoline, health care, college tuition and other areas have been rising steadily for years, some everyday items are climbing now, too.

            He said that firms that have kept prices down by cutting back internally or increasing productivity are facing increasing pressure because of spiraling energy and commodity prices fueled partly by growing demand in China.

            James Brock, a Miami University economics professor, said "the $64,000 question" is how much longer companies can keep rising costs from spilling heavily into the consumer marketplace.

            I just don't see how the Republicans are going to successfully deal with these types of inflationary pressures in the two months remaining before the election.

            by catullus on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 11:13:27 PM PDT

  •  Then every candidate needs to ask

    Why would you want to keep people in office that keeps allowing the prices to bounce up and down like a yo-yo?
    If you want price control or better yet, to escape this addiction to oil, put (name your fave Dem here) in this November.

    by RElland on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:02:26 PM PDT

    •  good line

      But do we hear our candidates saying it? Do we see our proxy groups running ads like the right wing group is doing for Bush and Terrorism?

      The Democratic party is now back on the defensive.

      by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:05:05 PM PDT

      •  Has it been suggested to them?

        I wrote Nelson in Florida. But so far that's pretty well a given that he's in for another few years unless Katherine Harris finds a way back to sanity.
        I also wrote this to Ned Lamont and a few others.
        Now have you written suggested talking points or are you just telling them to 'be specific'.
        An example, in the last Governors race in Florida, Jeb Bush knocked out the Democratic candidate by calling his bluff on education ideas. (He more or less said, "What ideas do you have? I've committed us to FCAT, what's your idea?!)
        If anything, that's my only complaint about the Democratic candidates at this point. Some have developed ideas, others are in the air and just attacking. (Which is stupid in some ways. If all the candidates turned around and said, 'I won't attack you're record, instead, I'm presenting mine and the ideas I have for our state. If people like them by all means... but let's see your's too', it might actually short circuit the GOP's whine about being attacked all the time).

        by RElland on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:12:04 PM PDT

  •  I think you are right on many points.

    Some are getting caught up in the polls, and pundits, and not paying attention to facts on the ground. That idiot is sitting in the White House today because we all underestimated them and thought we could win. Every single point Bush and Co. makes has to be countered, every single point.

    by Vera Lofaro on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:15:45 PM PDT

•  Gas well under $2.50 in Michigan

  We topped off at $2.43, then found a station down the street selling unleaded regular for $2.39.

  by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:32:47 PM PDT

  •  and you don't think...

    that lower gas prices means a happier electorare? I feel like I am on a team that has gotten over confident and we are going up against a team of rock solid veterens who know how to win. The Republicans tactics may be the same but no one has proven that they don't work anymore.

    by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:35:33 PM PDT

  •  Dang, where?

    I haven't seen it under the mid-$2.40s yet. (I'm in Oakland County)

    The only thing about the gas prices is that they did NOT drop in the weeks before the 2004 election. With such a close national election, I can't imagine they wouldn't have made them plummet if they really had the power.

    I also think that Bush and his oil exec buddies want gas prices to continue to rise. We're now used to prices over $2 a gallon, and by this time next year, we'll probably be used to prices around $3 a gallon.

    by land of the free on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:39:59 PM PDT

•  oh, stop panicking

  Wait until September 15 and see whether all this crap actually worries you as much then.

  51% of voters are immune to this appeal, including the 42-45% that are going to show up and vote for Democrats.

  The other 49%...only 38% are partisan their way and I just don't see how Republicans can get the 4-7% others they need.  Keeping that 38% together is going to be hard enough.

  Don't underestimate the impact of stuff in Iraq despite its underreporting.  It's been underreported and slanted all along.  Blair is between jumping and being thrown out, he and Britain are the only allies that actually matter in Iraq and the UN, and moderate Republicans know it.  Blair is one of the two last pillars for American hang-on policy in Iraq.

  As for the al-Maliki government...the upper estimate for its survival is four months by its head of parliament, what the lower end and median possibilities are are hard to know from a distance.  But al-Sadr could pull the plug on al-Maliki in a matter of hours or days when he chooses to.  No one knows what he's waiting for.

  by killjoy on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:48:30 PM PDT

  •  yes...

    but how many people know the nuts and bolts of what is going on Iraq?  

    I still think it is going to come down to how people are feeling, and if gas prices fall a bit more then people may be willing to overlook the mess in Iraq.

    by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:53:36 PM PDT

    •  "Nuts and Bolts" "Mess"

      Are those euphemisms for thousands of innocent lives lost? I know you're a veteran Kossack and have become understandably discouraged over the years, and many of your diaries are pessimistic, but Americans understand bodybags and caskets and funerals.  

      by anotherCt Dem on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:03:40 PM PDT

      •  War means...

        body bags, caskets and lives lost, and I'm not saying those are not important, but if Bush is succesful scaring the public and the public starts to feel better because gas prices come down then we will not see the change we need to see. People will ignore the perils of war if it doesn't directly effect them.

        by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:10:22 PM PDT

        •  The higher the casualty rate

          the higher number of people affected. The War came up in a fourth grade class I was subbing for last year. Three hands out of 25 went up - reports of relatives or parent's friends or neighbors who were lost. A similar response occurred when we discussed Katrina.

          by anotherCt Dem on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:18:58 PM PDT

          •  OK...

            I'll grant you it has affected people but has it reached enough people to sway the election?

            by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:34:27 PM PDT

        •  And many feel it doesn't effect them directly.

          Just ask yourself, how many body bags have you personally seen coming back from Iraq. People are selfish and vote their own self-interests, if it is in their imediate self-interest, then that is the way they vote. Add a bit of fear into the mix, and you have a winning combo.

          by Vera Lofaro on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:19:14 PM PDT

•  Place your bets!

  by buhdydharma on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:51:21 PM PDT

  •  *

    here

    by buhdydharma on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 07:51:57 PM PDT

•  Some retired Marine colonel was on the news

  being interviewed as part of a segment on support for Iraq at Camp Lejeune.

  He said he was a lifelong Republican and had voted for Bush twice but this fall was going to be voting straight Democrat.

  Reason:  he was holding the Republicans in government responsible for screwing up Iraq.

  There's got to be a lot of people like him.

  by Ammo Hauler on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:47:47 PM PDT

  •  that would be great

    I'd love to see a mass rebellion on the Republican side.

    by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:49:57 PM PDT

    •  Here is the link to the interview with the COL

      Bush Losing Support Among Supporters

      by Ammo Hauler on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:56:44 PM PDT

•  CBS poll: Bush hits new low

  This CBS News Poll finds an American public increasingly pessimistic about the economy, the war in Iraq, the overall direction of the country, and the president. Americans' outlook for the economy is the worst it has been in four years. Most expect the price of gas to rise even further in the next few months.

  A growing number of Americans want U.S. troops to leave Iraq as soon as possible, rather than stay the course, and the highest percentage ever thinks the United States should have stayed out of Iraq. When given a set of options for paying for rebuilding the hurricane-racked Gulf Coast, only one — taking money from the Iraq War — gets majority support.

  President Bush's overall job approval rating has reached the lowest ever measured in this poll, and evaluations of his handling of Iraq, the economy and even his signature issue, terrorism, are also at all-time lows. More Americans than at any time since he took office think he does not share their priorities.

  The public's concerns affect their view of the state of the country. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say things in the United States are pretty seriously off on the wrong track — the highest number since CBS News started asking the question in 1983. Today, just 26 percent say things are going in the right direction.

  Poll: Bush Ratings Hit New Low

  by Ammo Hauler on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:52:50 PM PDT

  •  that's from 2005

    Bush's poll numbers are bad, but the Democratic party has to learn to take advantage of these things. In 2002 we had Enron, in 2004 the mess in Iraq, and we didn't win. It's like watching a bad dream on screen over and over and over again.

    The same damn scare tactics that the Reaganites used in the 80's are being used again.

    by jbou on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:55:53 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for catching the error

      I know there is another poll I heard - will try to track it down.

      My bad.

      by Ammo Hauler on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 08:58:20 PM PDT

      •  Try

        Pollster.

        by catullus on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 09:03:56 PM PDT