Updated Weekly Senate Rankings (Trouble in New Jersey?)

Following is my weekly updated ranking of all of the Senate races in 2006.  Included is a discussion on changes from last week and other notes from the last week of news for the Senate campaigns.  Last week's rankings are here.

Changes from last week:

Pollster.com.  The big change this week is that I have added a new column with the latest composite numbers from the last 5 polls taken in the race according to Pollster.com.  It's a great site to check out.

No changes in the rankings this week.

Close to changing:

Tennessee, Virgina and Missouri.  It is a shocker but Tennessee and Virginia are hot on the heels of Missouri as the Democrats fifth best pick up opportunity.  Missouri remains a very tight race, but unfortunately recent polls (most notably Gallup) seem to give Talent the slight edge.  On the other hand, the news from Tennessee is getting progressively better.  Ford really seems to have Corker on the defensive.  A new Rasmussen poll has Corker only up 1 on Ford (Ford's own internal poll had him up 2).  That is a significant trend Ford's way.  I'm still waiting on more poll results from Virginia to confirm that macaca-gate is not just a temporary shift in the dynamics of the race.  But, as of know, it appears that Virginia is right there with Tennessee and Missouri as virtual toss-ups.

Rhode Island.  If Laffey wins the Republican primary on Tuesday this seat moves straight to the number one most vulnerable Republican seat -- past Pennsylvania.

Other notes:

New Jersey.  The news out of New Jersey is not good.  Recent polls all show Kean with a slight lead.  Menendez has to still be considered the favorite given his huge cash on hand numbers and New Jersey's democratic lean.  Still, there can be no question that this is the Democrats' most vulnerable seat.

Washington and Michigan.  These races are looking safer by the week (especially Washington).  Most recent polls in both show double-digit (and increasing) leads for the Democratic incumbent.  This is particularly good news when you consider that races typically tighten starting now.  If that doesn't start to happen in the next couple of weeks these may be surprisingly easy wins.

If the election were held today.  As of today, I would project Democratic pick-ups in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island.  Missouri, Tennesse, Virginia and New Jersey are true toss-ups.

The races are ranked by most likely to switch parties and I have separate rankings for seats currently held by Democrats and seats currently held by Republicans.  The approval numbers are from SurveyUSA's most recent 50-state tracking poll and are as of August 17.  The polling numbers are the most recent from Rasmussen in addition to the most recent non-Rasmussen poll I could find (no partisan funded polls included and no online Zogby).  Also included is the composite numbers from the last 5 polls taken in the race according to Pollster.com.  Cash on hand numbers are the Second Quarter numbers filed with the FEC and are current as of June 30 unless otherwise noted.

Without further ado, my (somewhat subjective) rankings:

Republican-Held Seats

 

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum	48 - 45	Republican Rick Santorum Democrat Bob Casey	Casey 48 Santorum 40 (8/22)	Casey 56 Santorum 38 (8/27)	Casey 51 Santorum 40	Santorum $9.4 million Casey $5.2 million
2	Ohio	Mike DeWine	42 - 48	Republican Mike DeWine Democrat Sherrod Brown	Brown 45 DeWine 42 (8/22)	Brown 46 DeWine 40 (8/27)	Brown 46 DeWine 41	DeWine $6.6 million Brown $3.7 million
3	Montana	Conrad Burns	39 - 55	Republican Conrad Burns Democrat Jon Tester	Tester 47 Burns 47 (8/8)	Tester 48 Burns 45 (8/27)	Tester 47 Burns 44	Burns $2.2 million Tester $0.5 million
4	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	51 - 44	Republican Lincoln Chafee or Steve Laffey Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse	Whitehouse 44 Chafee 42 (8/23)	Chafee 43 Whitehouse 42 (8/21)	Whitehouse 43 Chafee 40	Whitehouse $1.5 million Chafee $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
5	Missouri	Jim Talent	52 - 41	Republican Jim Talent Democrat Claire McCaskill	Talent 46 McCaskill 44 (8/15)	McCaskill 47 Talent 46 (8/31)	Talent 48 McCaskill 45	Talent $6.9 million McCaskill $2.7 million (Through 7/19)
6	Tennessee	Bill Frist	Retiring	Republican Bob Corker Democrat Harold Ford	Corker 45 Ford 44 (9/5)	Corker 49 Ford 36 (7/19)	Corker 46 Ford 42	Ford $1.8 million Corker $1.2 million (Through 7/14)
7	Virginia	George Allen	51 - 38	Republican George Allen Democrat James Webb	Allen 47 Webb 42 (8/16)	Allen 48 Webb 45 (8/21)	Allen 48 Webb 42	Allen $6.6 million Webb $0.4 million
8	Nevada	John Ensign	50 - 38	Republican John Ensign Democrat Jack Carter	Ensign 46 Carter 39 (7/31)	Ensign 54 Carter 33 (8/12)	N/A	Ensign $3.2 million Carter $0.4 million (Through 7/26)
9	Arizona	Jon Kyl	53 - 36	Republican Jon Kyl Democrat Jim Pederson	Kyl 52 Pederson 35 (8/24)	Kyl 46 Pederson 36 (8/29)	Kyl 48 Pederson 37	Kyl $6.7 million Pederson $1.5 million (Through 8/23)
10	Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison	61 - 32	Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky	Hutchison 61 Radnofsky 31 (8/3)	None	N/A	Hutchison $9.2 million Radnofsky $0.3 million
11	Utah	Orrin Hatch	60 - 34	Republican Orrin Hatch Democrat Pete Ashdown	No Poll Available	Hatch 63 Ashdown 21 (7/20)	N/A	Hatch $2.5 million Ashdown $13,000
12	Maine	Olympia Snowe	72 - 24	Republican Olympia Snowe Democrat Jean Hay Bright	Snowe 68 Bright 20 (8/17)	Snowe 68 Bright 10 (7/21)	N/A	Snowe $2.2 million Bright $100
13	Wyoming	Craig Thomas	61 - 31	Republican Craig Thomas Democrat Dale Groutage	Thomas 59 Groutage 32 (7/6)	None	N/A	Thomas $1.0 million Groutage $4,000 (Through 8/2)
14	Mississippi	Trent Lott	66 - 31	Republican Trent Lott Democrat Erik Fleming	Lott 66 Fleming 29 (2/13)	None	N/A	Lott $2.0 million Fleming $600
15	Indiana	Dick Lugar	59 - 33	Republican Dick Lugar	No Opposition	No Opposition	N/A	Lugar $4.0 million

Democratic-Held Seats

 

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	New Jersey	Bob Menendez	42 - 43	Democrat Bob Menendez Republican Tom Kean	Kean 44 Menendez 39 (8/30)	Kean 43 Menendez 39 (8/27)	Menendez 41 Kean 41	Menendez $7.4 million Kean $2.3 million
2	Maryland	Paul Sarbanes	Retiring	Democrat Ben Cardin or Kweisi Mfume Republican Michael Steele	Cardin 47 Steele 42 (8/9)	Cardin 44 Steele 39 (8/25)	N/A	Steele $3.1 million Cardin $1.6 million (Through 8/23)
3	Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Retiring	Democrat Amy Klobuchar Republican Mark Kennedy	Klobuchar 47 Kennedy 40 (8/28)	Klobuchar 50 Kennedy 40 (8/27)	Klobuchar 49 Kennedy 39	Kennedy $3.4 million Klobuchar $3.0 million (Through 8/23)
4	Michigan	Debbie Stabenow	51 - 42	Democrat Debbie Stabenow Republican Michael Bouchard	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 43 (8/31)	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 38 (8/22)	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 41	Stabenow $4.4 million Bouchard $0.5 million (Through 7/19)
5	Washington	Maria Cantwell	55 - 38	Democrat Maria Cantwell Republican Mike McGavick	Cantwell 52 McGavick 35 (9/6)	Cantwell 56 McGavick 39 (8/27)	Cantwell 51 McGavick 40	Cantwell $6.4 million McGavick $1.1 million
6	Nebraska	Ben Nelson	67 - 27	Democrat Ben Nelson Republican Pete Ricketts	Nelson 55 Ricketts 32 (8/10)	None	Nelson 54 Ricketts 33	Nelson $2.1 million Ricketts $1.1 million
7	West Virginia	Robert Byrd	65 - 32	Democrat Robert Byrd Republican John Raese	Byrd 63 Raese 30 (9/5)	Byrd 59 Raese 30 (5/22)	N/A	Byrd $2.6 million Raese $0.2 million
8	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	Retiring	Independent Bernie Sanders Republican Richard Tarrant	Sanders 62 Tarrant 34 (8/3)	Sanders 56 Tarrant 35 (7/27)	N/A	Sanders $1.7 million Tarrant $0.5 million (Through 8/23)
9	Florida	Bill Nelson	47 - 38	Democrat Bill Nelson Republican Katherine Harris	Nelson 57 Harris 34 (8/28)	Nelson 60 Harris 25 (8/9)	N/A	Nelson $12.1 million Harris $2.2 million (Through 8/16)
10	Connecticut	Joe Lieberman	53 - 43	Democrat Ned Lamont Republican Alan Schlesinger Independent Joe Lieberman	Lieberman 45 Lamont 43 Schlesinger 6 (8/21)	Lieberman 44 Lamont 42 Schlesinger 3 (8/21)	Lieberman 47 Lamont 41 Schlesinger 4	Lieberman $3.5 million Lamont $0.4 million Schlesinger $76,000 (Through 7/19)
11	North Dakota	Kent Conrad	74 - 21	Democrat Kent Conrad Republican Dwight Grotberg	Conrad 57 Grotberg 35 (1/25)	None	N/A	Conrad $3.5 million Grotberg $19,000
12	California	Dianne Feinstein	53 - 42	Democrat Dianne Feinstein Republican Dick Mountjoy	Feinstein 56 Mountjoy 34 (8/22)	Feinstein 56 Mountjoy 34 (8/27)	N/A	Feinstein $8.0 million Mountjoy $21,000
13	Wisconsin	Herb Kohl	56 - 37	Democrat Herb Kohl Republican Robert Lorge	Kohl 59 Lorge 31 (8/10)	Kohl 63 Lorge 14 (7/2)	N/A	Kohl $1.6 million Lorge $2,000 (Through 8/23)
14	New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman	57 - 33	Democrat Jeff Bingaman Republican Allen McCulloch	Bingaman 59 McCulloch 33 (6/27)	None	N/A	Bingaman $1.8 million McCulloch $2,000
15	New York	Hillary Clinton	61 - 35	Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican John Spencer	Clinton 61 Spencer 31 (7/31)	Clinton 60 Spencer 35 (8/18)	N/A	Clinton $22.2 million Spencer $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
16	Delaware	Tom Carper	59 - 30	Democrat Tom Carper Republican Jan Ting or Mike Protack	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Carper $2.5 million Protack $32,000 (Through 8/23 for Carper)
17	Hawaii	Daniel Akaka	51 - 40	Democrat Daniel Akaka or Ed Case Republican Jerry Coffee or Mark Beatty	Akaka 58 Coffee 30 (7/31)	None	N/A	Akaka $1.0 million Coffee (No Report)
18	Massachusetts	Ted Kennedy	56 - 40	Democrat Ted Kennedy Republican Kevin Scott or Kenneth Chase	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Kennedy $8.7 million Chase $34,000

•  Does anyone think

  we might actually lose New Jersey?

  by DemUnity on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:27:13 AM PDT

  •  Yes...

    Menendez can very easily (and not entirely wrongly) be tied to the very corrupt machine politics of Northern NJ.  He's very much a product of old school NJ politics.  Kean, in contrast, is harmless sound and the son of a generally well-liked (by both sides of the political aisle) former governor.

    I think Menendez pulls it out, but I also think it's a squeaker.

    by profmatt on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:39:41 AM PDT

  •  yup

    Look at the immigration positions.  I'll bet money that's coming into play.

    by BobOak on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:41:18 AM PDT

  •  Sadly, we might

    Menendez looks very dirty from South Joisey. I will hold my nose and pusha da button, but many of my neighbors have had enough.

    The population density is in the north, though.

    by grayday101 on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 01:53:42 PM PDT

•  NJ

  In the last NJ Gov race, Corzine was polled to be up by 3 a week before.

  He won by 10.

  NJ polls seem to have a republican tilt.

  by centerdem on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:30:03 AM PDT

  •  I've noticed that

    I wonder what the explanation is?  It seems to be a issue with all polling outfits.

    Still, repeated polls with Kean in the lead can't be ignored.

    by DemUnity on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:32:38 AM PDT

•  Another excellent summary

  Sadly, I'm guessing with 25 PT911 diaries an hour it will get lost pretty quick.

  by ord avg guy on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 11:37:28 AM PDT

  •  That's why

    I subscribe.

    But while I'm here, can I ask a favor of the diarist?
    If it isn't asking too much, can you try and update the money race?
    Just curious.
    Thanks!
    Go Ford!

    by Sidof79 on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 02:01:32 PM PDT

    •  It is updated

      I can only go by the official FEC filings.  These numbers are all the updated cash-on-hand totals as of the most recent filing for the particular race.

      Other pre-election filings (which are, I believe two weeks before a primary or general), filings are only made quarterly.  So there is no way to get official updated numbers frequently.

      The most recent quarterly numbers are from the quarter ended June 30.  The next quarter ends at the end of this month, so reports should be up by mid-October.  The races that have more recent money numbers had pre-primary filings since the end of the June quarter.

      by DemUnity on Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 03:59:22 PM PDT

•  New poll shows Arizona race is closer than that!

  The Hotline reported on Friday that a new Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. poll showed that Pederson closed the gap on Kyl to just 6 points.  

  I have not seen any polling from Nevada showing Carter so close to Ensign.  Additionally, looking at cash on hand, Nevada has nothing on Arizona.  Pederson has more money and more ability to get money than Carter.  Pederson is up with tons of television ads (at least in the Phoenix-area).  National Journal currently shows no television advertising in the Nevada Senate race.  Although Carter starts with a famous name, I don't know how Nevada voters will perceive him as ready to be a U.S. Senator.  Arizona voters on the other hand are beginning to both question Kyl's competency and understand how Pederson will bring his business skills to clean up Washington.

  Although it is clear that Webb in Virginia has superior qualifications to hold political office than Carter in Nevada, I think Arizona's race is probably a bit closer than Virginia's for two reasons, money and election timing.  Looking at money, Webb's campaign has very little cash on hand.  Although George-not-actually-from-Virginia's "macaca" comment helped Webb raise some money, the Webb campaign just started on television this week and it is unclear that Webb has the resources to stay on television through Election Day.  This distinction is especially important considering the war chest of I'm-actually-running-for-President-Allen.  Also critical is election timing.  Virginia and Arizona are alike in that both are traditional red states with popular Democratic Governors.  But Kaine (and former Governor Warner) can only campaign for Webb since neither is on the ballot.  In Arizona, Janet Napolitano is running for re-election and looks pretty safe.  Even my Republican friends like her!   This means that she will bring Democrats and Independents to the polls who might not otherwise vote will help Pederson get independent voters who might otherwise vote for Kyl to put a Democrat in office.

  by blogazblue on Sun Sep 10, 2006 at 03:57:24 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for the post

    You make some good points, and some others I would disagree with.  I may move Arizona ahead of Nevada next week.

    You make good points regarding cash-on-hand, and that is the main reason I'll probably switch the two.  Plus, no polls have really come out to confirm the Rasmussen poll that had Carter within 7.  Most seem to have it at about a 20 point gap.

    I had not seen the Arizona poll with Pederson within 6.  Do you have a cite?  It sounds like a partisan poll to me.  I'm not including those in my posts although I give them some consideration in rankings (not a lot though).  Although, your point about Nevada not having any polls that close can be refuted by my chart - Rasmussen gave Ensign a 7 point lead only in his last polling of the race (essentially the same as 6 and not a partisan polling outfit).

    I definitely have to disagree with your analysis of Virginia though.  Yes, Webb's cash numbers are not strong.  However, those numbers were as of the last filing (June 30) and are likely substantially different, especially because macaca-gate has since erupted.  But even if Webb's cash numbers are still low, you simply can't ignore every poll since macaca-gate showing the race within 5 or closer.  That puts Virginia far ahead of Arizona in competitiveness.  Plus the DSCC has indicated they will put cash into the race.

    by DemUnity on Tue Sep 12, 2006 at 11:28:33 AM PDT

    •  NV-AZ-VA talk

      The Pederson down 6 poll was posted on Hotline last Friday.  It was an internal conducted by Harstad Research -the Dem firm that polled for Salazar in CO last cycle.  

      I'm surprised that a Rasmussen put Carter down just 7 - they are usually a bit skewed to the right.  I hope that it's true!!!  

      Webb seems like a good candidate - I hope that he raises some $$ because that race is going to be hard without some serious TV.  Voters will have to be reminded about the macaca speech in 6 weeks.

      by blogazblue on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 10:13:22 PM PDT