Much of the remaining American support for a continued US presence in Iraq is based on a fundamental misconception. One event could correct that misconception and make the necessity of US departure from Iraq an all but inescapable conclusion.
The flawed argument still being bandied about by conservative talking-heads and President Bush is that one key reason that the United States cannot leave Iraq is that the Iraqis are counting on us to stay there, and finish the job, and therefore to leave would be to "abandon" the Iraqi people, to "cut and run".
This is bunk.
A new WPO poll of the Iraqi public finds that seven in ten Iraqis want U.S.-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. An overwhelming majority believes that the U.S. military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing and there is growing confidence in the Iraqi army. If the United States made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes that this would strengthen the Iraqi government. Support for attacks on U.S.-led forces has grown to a majority position—now six in ten. Support appears to be related to a widespread perception, held by all ethnic groups, that the U.S. government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq.
The Democratic leadership has increasingly voiced the opinion that it is in the country's interest to get out of Iraq. Here is how I propose that it could be done: pressure the Iraqi government to hold a plebiscite on the continued US presence in Iraq. Do you support the continued presence of US troops in Iraq? Yes, or no.
Given what we know about Iraqi public opinion, it is clear what the result of such a vote would be, and once it took place, the situation would change dramatically. Having already expressed such a strong interest in a "democratic" Iraq, and having placed a great deal of emphasis on the "democratic" processes in Iraq (remember the purple fingers), the United States could hardly simply ignore a major democratic act in that country. The pressure on the US, both from Iraq and from within the US (as well as the rest of the world), to rapidly depart would immediately intensify. After such a referendum were held, the US could likely not remain any longer than one additional year in Iraq.
This solution could be particularly useful in light of Democratic promises not to cut off funding for the troops in order to end the war. Congressional Democrats could use all tools at their disposal with the exception of funding the troops (perhaps conditioning funds for the Iraqi government), to pressure the Iraqi government and President Bush for a referendum to be held in Iraq on this matter of fundamental importance to its people.
Another way it would be a big win for the Democrats and the country is that the US departure could not easily be characterized as "cut-and-run", because rather than cutting and running on the Iraqi people, the US would be doing quite the opposite; obeying the will of the Iraqi people, as expressed in a Democratic election.
And that is how the Dems could get us out of Iraq.