I've been buzzing today because of the incredible new Rasmussen poll and I just couldn't help but share! Their numbers definitely tend to run higher than other polls but today Bush hit 35% Approve, a new low. His Disapprove is 61%. What's more this poll was "completed before the President’s Wednesday night speech, but after details of his plan for a troop surge had been discussed."
While there are lower approval ratings out there for Bush (Zogby 30%, AP-Ipsos 32%, CBS News 30%) - many of which are setting new lows for approval - what's amazing here is the trend. Bush is swirling the drain, had a classic dead cat bounce in Rasmussen at the beginning of the month, but even they can't hold him up (after the fold I talk a bit about Rasmussen's methods).
Politically Bush is radioactive. We don't need him to go any lower. But I still want to see twenties, and given that Rasmussen trends significantly higher than other polls, roughly 10% at points, I'd say that he's effectively in the 20s now. So, for fun, a prediction: He's still falling and we'll see several polls put him firmly in the twenties in the coming weeks, maybe days.
In the past the Rasmussen numbers for Bush were remarkably static, largely I suspect because they adjusted the raw numbers to reflect party identification. This is I think a reasonable practice because party i.d. doesn't change quickly.
However, given their methodology this kind of drop in the Rasmussen strongly suggests that Bush's base is turning fast against him. The approval numbers are already so low among Independents and Democrats that the only place for him to sink any further is among Republicans. I can't help but conclude that Bush is minting new Democrats for us. (Rasmussen did adjust their party i.d. methodology recently, largely I suspect because Bush changed the previous dynamic of party i.d., making it less stable.)
Last, but not least, Rasmussen has 44% strongly disapproving of Bush. I'll be watching for that to hit 50%. I'm not sure it will, but that would be a key tipping point on many fronts.