Update [2007-1-13 8:40:50 by DemFromCT]:
Two Indonesian women have died of bird flu, a health ministry official said on Saturday, taking the overall human death toll from the disease in the country to 61 amid a spike of new cases.
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The bringing of cooler weather has been accompanied by an increase in H5N1 human and bird cases.
Bird flu killed a 37-year-old woman in Indonesia and may have infected hundreds of poultry in Japan as the lethal virus resurfaces across Asia.
The woman's death late yesterday brings to 59 the number of fatalities from the H5N1 avian influenza virus in Indonesia, Runizar Ruesin, a Health Ministry official, said in a mobile phone text message today. Japan's farm ministry suspects the virus killed poultry on a farm on the southern island of Kyushu.
The new infections provide chances for H5N1 to mutate into a form more dangerous to people. Millions could die if it mutates and begins spreading easily between people, sparking a pandemic. South Korea, Vietnam and Nigeria had fresh poultry outbreaks last month, while China and Egypt found human cases.
"It makes biologic sense that where there is more virus activity, there is a greater likelihood of some type of genetic change," Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis, said in a telephone interview today.
The H5N1 strain is known to have infected 264 people in 10 countries since 2003, killing 158 of them, the World Health Organization said yesterday. Indonesia recorded the most deaths.
Indonesia remains the hot spot. Documented human cases in Indonesia are now up to three, with two deaths. Most interestingly, one of the cases has a husband and son with symptoms of suspected H5N1. Should the husband prove positive, that cluster would not only be evidence of H2H transmission, but just about the only cluster case that crosses blood lines (i.e., not a blood relative, though whether he is a distant relation is unknown). The deaths are now 159, though more than a dozen suspect cases in Indonesia may change the equation.
In this Daily Kos diary, we discussed policy changes such as school closures that might be needed to mitigate an actual pandemic. Today's news is yet another reminder that the problem has not gone away, and in fact might be getting worse. you might not hear it from your usual news sources, but H5N1 is infecting people, birds and small mammals whether the media covers the story or not. Given that that's the case, and given the review of how unready the country is, policy change would be most welcome.
There is a continued need to improve the state of preparedness for a potential influenza pandemic in the United States despite the publication of a pandemic influenza plan by the Department of Health and Human Services. Of particular importance are the sense of urgency for a coordinated response plan, an allocation of adequate funds to deal with this issue, and the need for a national leader to coordinate the development and execution of a national plan, including its relationship to the control of seasonal influenza. In addition, an infrastructure needs to be established in the United States to enable the rapid development and large-scale production of a safe and effective vaccine for new influenza strains; methods to treat influenza pneumonia need to be evaluated; a coordinated public health response needs to be defined; a nationally developed blueprint to deal with logistics of pandemic prevention is required; and there is a need to establish reliable communication systems on a national and local basis, to provide accurate information to the lay public, health care workers, and the agricultural sector.
Hear, hear. The Feds are telling overseas business to prepare to shelter in place (SIP) for up to 12 weeks.
Remind employees that normal supply lines may be slowed or inoperable for an extended period of time and to make personal preparations for pandemic for up to 12 weeks (e.g., stockpiling food, water, and prescription drugs).
While we might not be ready to go that route, it may well soon be official policy to suggest that schools consider closing for that long. And why not? Iif you're a parent, would you send your kids to school in the midst of a pandemic? Planning for such a thing doesn't mean wishing it happens. It's just a prudent thing to do.