This is the second installment in my series about those pickup oppertunities in 2008 that don't look super promising. Second tier, if you will. About a month ago, I wrote the first installment about my homestate where we'll be working hard to knock off the nuttiest member of the Senate, Jim Inhofe. Today, I'll look at John Cornyn, a partisan right wing GOPer from the Lone Star State.
In all honesty, I felt much more hopeful about our chances as I wrote the first installment. Unlike Oklahoma, Texas does not have a deep bench of Democrats who hold state wide office. Nevertheless, there you'll be hard pressed to find someone with more passion and drive than a Texas Democrat. Our party has a proud history in the Lone Star state and while we're not the dominant force we once were, the legacy of Ralph Yarborough, Ann Richards and Sam Rayburn lives on. Additionally, Texas' rapid demographic shifts with an influx of Mexican immigrants is bound to restore our party to greatness. Taking back America starts in Texas and a partisan corporate minion like John Cornyn is the perfect place to start.
The Candidates (Listed in order of strength)
1.) Bill White (Mayor of Houston)
Bill White has been a great mayor of Houston. He was praised from figures across the political spectrum following both Hurricanes Rita and Katrina. The big question is, does Bill White want to be a Senator or a Governor? Rumor has it that he's holding out for Rick Perry's term to expire in 2010. From White's standpoint, that could very well turn out to be a much smarter move for his political carreer. An open seat is usually much easier than challanging a well established incumbent.
But Cornyn is not Kay Bailey Hutchinson. In fact, his latest approvals suck for a Republican from Texas. Back in November, he only had a +3 net approval rating.
My only concern about White is his ability to get out the Latino vote. Texas politics is very polarized racially and while I think we need to work our asses off at bringing White folks back into the party, we cannot discount the importance of the minority vote. I know the anti-immigrant crowd hates White and he seems to be well liked in Houston's Hispanic community. Furthermore, he beat a Latino candidate (albeit, a Republican) in his mayoral election.
Plus, we can't even begin to predict how the Latino vote turns out without factoring in the Presidential nominees. If someone like Newt, or any of the other xenophobes on the Republican side get the nod, that alone will turn out the Latino vote in droves for Democrats. Still, there are plenty of Latino Democrats who I'm about to examine that would probably be better than White in this department.
2.) Chet Edwards (current U.S. congressmen, the only member of the "Texas 5" that surrvived Delay's mid-decade redistricting.
Let me be clear...I do not want Chet Edwards to give up his House seat under any circumstances. Even if it means moving up to the Senate.
Put simply, it's too much of a risk. Edwards reprsents the most Republican district in the country held by Democrat. While Edwards got to keep his Waco base from the pre-Delay gerrymander, he also represents none other than President Bush himself and probably the last town in the country where he has a net approval rating, his hometown of Crawford. If Edwards gives up this seat, it's almost guranteed that the Republicans pick it up.
While Edwards is a brilliant campaigner, and a perfect fit for statewide office in Texas, we need his House seat. If Edwards was the only prominent Democrat in Texas, I'd say run him. But we've got others. Bill White is at the very least equally strong and by running him, we don't run the risk of loosing a valuble house seat. Let's keep Delay and the Republicans in Austin pissed off by keeping Edwards right where he is.
3.) Henry Cuellar (U.S. Congressman from Laredo)
Cuellar is far from my favorite Democrat. As the only Democrat to have the (dis)honor of being endorsed by the Club for Growth, this guy has a history of loyalty problems. In 2004, he challanged progressive incumbent Ciro Rodriguez, who thankfully has made his way back into the House, and barley won. At Bush's last State of the Union, he had the nerve to sit on the Republican side of the aisle. He's Texas' version of Lieberman.
Still, he has a (D) in front of his name and he would be representing a state much more conservative than Lieberman's. Additionally, Cuellar should be forgiven for at least some of his bad behavior after he endorsed Ciro this past cycle.
What makes Cuellar an especially strong candidate statewide is that he gurantees a strong Latino turnout. Is that the key to victory in Texas? I don't think so. Just look back to 2002 when Tony Sanchez lost to Rick Perry by a rather convincing margin. With Cuellar,however, his moderate-conservative voting record just might be enough to cyphon off a few more White votes that Sanchez failed to get. Also, He was Texas' Secretary of State before entering congress and that presence in statewide office should help.
Like I said, I dislike Cuellar but I think he has a lot of potential
as a statewide candidate. Hopefully, if he decides to run, he can spare us from another Club for Growth endorsement.
4.) Jim Turner (Former Congressman, one of the four congressmen successfully brought down by Delay)
A moderate Blue Dog former congressman, Jim Turner is a likeable guy that would be formidable opponent statewide. Turner's most appealing characteristic is his warchest. Unlike his fellow Democrats targeted by Delay in 2004, Turner realized his chances at re-election were insurmountable and he retired. Turner still has a good ammount of funds left over and that would put him off to a good start in a statewide race. If Turner is itching to get back into politics, he just might run against Cornyn.