Does dishonesty have a future as a major component of US politics? If you read the polls and look at the US Government's budget, the answer would be a big YES, but the long-term trends don't favor a dishonest model of governance. Here is a quick rundown of the change drivers undermining the value of dishonesty in American politics.
- Increasing information transparency. You can't be dishonest unless you can maintain two sets of books, one of which is secret. The Internet views secrecy, like censorship, as network damage and routes around it. With many eyes looking at a phenomenon from many angles, it will become progressively harder to conceal anything of great significance.
- Environmental change. You can't bullshit melting glaciers and rising pollution levels. Unlike budget deficits, whose negative aspects can be concealed and covered up with lies, Mother Nature has a powerful way of communicating facts - like submerging your island.
- Close coupling of organizational activity. Tighter communication and coordination among all participants in organized human endeavors will increasingly penalize dishonest dealing and concealment of important information.
- The angry masses. The widespread emergence of super-slums, like Sadr City, is creating an angry global proletariat that cannot be appeased by telegenic lies. Desperate slum dwellers will have considerably less tolerance for lies and cheating than comfortable suburbanites.
How long will it be before lying-as-usual is discarded? Extrapolating the above trends, I would give the culture of lies another 20 years. Then the name of the political game will be Truth or Consequences, and the consequences will be severe.