As you are probably aware, the Democrats in 2006 made some major gains in state legislatures. This diary is a bit of number-crunching relating to which state legislatures may be vulnerable to further gains in 2007/2008.
The number-crunching is fairly crude, and admittedly ignores local variables in favour of raw data, but is probably a decent enough indicator if taken with a few grains of salt.
The idea is that in every legislative chamber where the Democrats do not currently enjoy outright control, the number of seats they need to gain is calculated as a percentage of the total number of seats in the chamber. Remember that the focus here is on outright control - tied chambers, even if the tie-breaking vote is in the Democrats' favour, don't count.
Going into the 2006 midterms, there were 19 legislative chambers where outright Democratic control was within 10 percent of the total chamber seats. These were as follows, with the chambers that actually did go to outright Democratic control in italics:
1 Montana House 1.0 (percentage gain required for outright Democratic majority)
2. Minnesota House 1.5
3= Iowa House 2.0
3= Iowa Senate 2.0
5 Indiana House 3.0
6 Michigan House 3.6
7 Pennsylvania House 3.9
8 Tennessee Senate 6.1
9 Oregon House 6.7
10 Oklahoma House 6.9
11 Texas House 8.0
12 New York Senate 8.1
13 Georgia House 8.3
14 South Carolina Senate 8.7
15 Wisconsin Senate 9.1
16 Nevada Senate 9.5
17 Missouri House 9.8
18= Pennsylvania Senate 10.0
18= Virginia Senate 10.0
Two chambers that were not on this list - the New Hampshire House (12.8 percent gain required) and New Hampshire Senate (20.8 percent gain required) also switched to the Democrats, which says a bit about the size of the electoral wave that hit New Hampshire.
Now, here are the 23 chambers that are within the 10 percent margin post-2006:
1 Montana House: 2.0 (percentage gain required for outright Democratic majority)
2 Oklahoma Senate: 2.1
3= Tennessee Senate: 3.0
3= Wisconsin House: 3.0
5 Ohio House: 4.0
6 Texas House: 4.7
7 Nevada Senate: 4.8
8 North Dakota Senate: 6.4
9 New York Senate: 6.5
10= Arizona House: 6.7
10= Missouri House: 6.7
12 Oklahoma House: 6.9
13 Delaware House: 7.3
14 Michigan Senate: 7.9
15 Kentucky Senate: 8.0
16 South Dakota Senate: 8.6
17 South Carolina Senate: 8.7
18 Georgia House: 9.4
19 South Carolina House: 9.7
20= Alaska House: 10.0
20= Alaska Senate: 10.0
20= Pennsylvania Senate: 10.0
20= Virginia Senate: 10.0
Interestingly, were all 23 of the above to flip control (unlikely I know), there would only be five states in the entire US where Republicans still held control of both legislative chambers. These would be Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Utah, and Wyoming. And only three states would have Republican control of both governorship and state legislature: Utah, Idaho, and Florida. I think this speaks volumes about gerrymandering at a state level in Florida.