History presents tough odds for a Losing Vice Presidential Candidate running for the Presidency. But it's not impossible.
LOOK IN ANY HISTORY BOOK that features a list of candidates who ran in American Presidential elections, and you will find the name Rufus King three times. As a vice-presidential candidate in 1804 and 1808, and in the presidential race of 1816, in which he 'faced off' with then Secretary of State James Monroe seeking his office at the end of James Madison's Presidency. The history books are right on about the 1804 and 1808 elections. But there is a problem with 1816..
Back in the day, everybody loved Rufus. That he was a contender for President is not a surprise, King was a delegate to both the Continental Congress and the Constitutional Convention, he was a talented Senator from New York who was so respected in a bi-partisan manner that he was supported for Senate by the Federalists like Alexander Hamilton and Republicans like New York Gov. George Clinton and he was kept on as Ambassador to Britian by Thomas Jefferson, though the two were from different parties and it was a high-water mark of partisanship in American politics. King was a national name. And he was the choice of the Federalist party for the vice-presidency in 04 and 08.
The trouble is with the 1816 race. No correspondence of Senator King reveals that he was aware that he was the Federalist candidate for the Presidency. He must have been aware that some intended to vote for him, but it's not clear he acted in any way as a Presidential candidate. There was no campaign to speak of. The Federalist Party was nearly dead as a national party at this point, after its was shamed by opposing the War of 1812 in the wake of Andy Jackson's New Orleans victory. In the end, King did get 34 Electoral Votes, but it is believed that they were honorary votes, the same as to when on occasions, electors have voted for odd people. If the textbooks list him, perhaps it should be with a footnote.
John Edwards probably does not wish to end up like Rufus King-- the nice guy who can't be President. King was twice a vice Presidential candidate and then ran, whether he knew it or not, for the Presidency. What has happenend to other Losing Veep Candidates when they ran for President?
With most of the talk about Hillary and Obama, there's been little attention on John Edwards, who also unfortunately lost some news coverage by announcing on the day of Gerald Ford's death..but still there are scenarios in which Edwards can come to play. Recently popular political anaylst Charles Cook described the Democratic field as being one of Obama, Hillary and other candidates. But if Obama doesn't run, Cook said. It is Hillary and an 'anti-Hillary' candidate which Democrats would build up. His analysis makes some sense, and Edwards could be well positioned to be that Anti-Hillary.
Edwards aggressively sought the vice Presidential nomination in 2004, and some suspected that it was a setup for a loss. Edwards was a left of center candidate in one of the 'red' states that voted for George W. Bush in 2000, was running out of options in his own state and needed to run something. Did he do the right thing. Perhaps not, according to a former President's father.
Listen to Daddy, John?
In 1956, there was no doubt that Eisenhower would recieve his party's nomination for another term as President. And there was little doubt about who Democrats would run for President. The capable governor of Illinois, Adali Stevenson, the same man who had run against Eisenhower - and lost -- 1952. Given this lack of suspense, Adali Stevenson decided to make the 1956 Democratic Convention interesting for the audience and the voters. He eschewed his normal perogotive to pick the next Vice President and decided to allow convention delegates to pick his nominee..as republican wendell wilkiee had done in 1940 and no one has done since.
With less years in the Senate than Edwards had had, though with a short House term..young Massachusets Senator John F. Kennedy decided to grab the opportunity and go for the 1956 VP nomination. It was against the strong urging of his father. Kennedy Senior knew that the smart money was on Eisenhower. Stevenson had no chance. But if Kennedy ran as his vice presidential ticket, the blame would not fall on Stevenson but on the young Catholic Senator he chose. Despite an animated floor battle conducted by his brother Robert, John F. Kennedy lost the vote to Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennesee. A spirited man who was gathering a lot of attention during the 50's.
But unless you are a political history buff, you don't know the name Keaufver. Of course you know the name Kennedy, and know that his not obtaining the VP nomination was not a huge setback; maybe it was a good thing, maybe daddy was right.
Should John Edwards have listened to Joe Kennedy Senior? Perhaps the experience of Edmund Muskie might be instructive. Edmund Muskie was a brilliant Senator from Maine who was respected on the Hill as a great leader.. During the 1968 convention disaster for the Democrats, the one bright spot was VP candidate Edmund Muskie, who called for unity among the peace and hawks at the convention and had a well regarded speech. Though Nixon-Agnew beat Humphrey-Muskie, the Senator from Maine's star was rising. No one knew this more than the Nixon people. In 1972 who was the favored candidate. That was until the Manchster Union printed an article about his wife and Muskie was seen crying - ending his Presidential career and assuring liberal George McGovern's victory.
Bob Dole was Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976. He was chosen to appease conservatives who had voted for Reagan. In a vice-presidential debate, Dole did not have a grea moment when he referred to 'Democrat Wars' what seemed to be a reference to Vietnam and Korea and said they cost lives. After a run in 1988 and then acceptance of the Senate Majority Leader position, Dole ran for President again. And it seemed that he had a good shot. Until the showdown of '95-'96 in which he played a role in boosting President Clinton.
Henry Cabot Lodge was Nixon's choice for Vice President running with Richard Nixon on a ticket against the man who had beaten him for his Massachusets Senate seat, John Kennedy. Lodge was Ambassador to Vietnam in the Kennedy administration during the crisis and coup there and so did not recognize that he had possible support for the 1964 Republican nomination. Without ever declaring for President he did end up winning the New Hampshire primary as a write-in, beating Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwatter. While never declaring, he did allow others to float his name but lost later primaries and Goldwater go the nomination.
One of the odder cases of a losing vice presidential candidates not to become President is Nicholas Murray Butler who was the president of Columbia University. Butler is an odd case because he was only a vice Presidential cnadiate for a few days, After Vice President John Sherman died days before the 1912 election, it was arranged that the electoral votes for Vice President of those few states casting their votes for William Howard Taft would be recorded for Butler. Butler was then not successful in parlaying his days of vice presidential candidacy into Presidential nominations in 1920 and 1928.
Not that many men have become President after just being Vice President. Only Martin Van Buren and George Bush Senior have achieved this feat. Adams and Jefferson could be put in this category, though they had none of the party nominating struggle that Edwards will face. It's seems certianly unhelpful to be merely the vice Presidential candidate of a losing ticket. Save one, there's been only one case where that person even became the Party's nominee for President. Parties, seem to say thanks for your service but no thanks.
Real Trend?
But is there any reasoning for this. One of the things we must do when we look at history and compare it today -- we have to be a bit careful. I mean, are we really looking at causation and not correlation? Does it matter that nobody before did it? It could still happen. We've got to seperate real trends from mere chance. Well, I think we have to see if there's any pattern any meat to the trend. First of all, lets remember that the Vice Presidential candidate of a losing ticket did lose an election. And anyone who loses an election has a mark against them. In that, Joe Kennedy Senior may have been right. Only a few Presidential candiates: Dewey, Stevenson, Andrew Jackson, Cleveland and Bryan got a second chance to win after they had lost. If they aren't giving a second chance to the top, why got to the bottom of the losing ticket? So there is an argument there that the losing VP candidate is not the best launching pad for President.
But let's not forget that in many cases, historical Vice Presidential candidates were chosen to appease a small faction of the party who had to be satisfied or one region of the country that could not go without representation on the ticket. They weren't always the best people. Historical vice presidents were low-profile, VP candidates were forgotten. Until VP's like Lyndon Johnson, Walter Mondale, Al Gore and now the UbberVeep Dick Cheney would assume larger roles, the office offered nothing. Given the change in the Vice Presidency. the vice presidential candidicy is certinaly more high profile than it once was. So while there is a clear trend that the door shuts on losing vice presidential candidates, it can't be hard and fast.
The One Man Who Made It
The good news for Edwards comes from the one exception, the one person vice presidential loser who was able to become a winner. And one of the greatest Presidents. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the Vice Presidential candidate of the Democrats in 1920 on the losing ticket with Governor William Cox of Ohio. Roosevelt would then contract polio, and rehabilitate both himself and his political career when in 1928 he was elected governor of New York and then in 1932 he was elected President. Roosevelt had to wait 12 years, and by that time the memory of the 1920 ticket's loss had passed, and win he did.
Even if John Edwards doesn't win the Presidency, he could do good things. Thomas Hendricks, who ran with Samuel Tilden in the disputed election of 1876 did get the Number Two Job eight years later. George Pendleton who was the Vice presidential candiate in 1864, has a name that survives today in the Pendelton Civil Service Reform Act. Lodge as we mentioned was ambassodor under JFK and lBJ. Frank Knox who ran on a ticket against FDR in 1936 was tapped by FDR to be his secretary of the Navy during World War II. Earl Warren, who ran with Dewey in '48 became the Chief of the Supreme Court. Even if he fails to get the Presidency, Edwards could use the spotlight he got in '04 for good things.
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