I've been a progressive activist going back to the 1970s and am a longtime member here (userid 7014). I've never posted a diary previously, due in part to being busy with three young kids. However, I will be posting several diaries about the 2008 election and specifically about Hillary Clinton, starting with the question, "Is Hillary Electable?" Read more beneath the fold.
First, a little bit more about me. I worked full time for the United Farm Workers in the 1970s and was a national staffer for the Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador in the early 1980s. Now I'm a professor of education in the University of California, researching children's use of new technology in schools. I have never been paid by any political election campaign nor am I now. But I support Hillary Clinton and will be analyzing her campaign in several diaries, each one subtitled WISH (Why I Support Hillary) and a number. This is WISH 1.
Is Hillary Electable?
There are basically four main arguments as to why Hillary isn't electable: (1) Conservatives think she is too liberal; (2) Liberals think she is too conservative; (3) she'll inspire too much hate among the right; and (4) she doesn't connect to people personally.
As to the first point, that conservatives think she is too liberal, this is partly true. Many far-right conservatives do believe that Hillary is a raging liberal, and they will never vote for her. But hardly any of them would vote for any Democratic candidate. However, many on the center-right, including moderate Republicans and independents, recognize Hillary for what she is: a moderate, progressive, clear-thinking leader who is highly competent, professional, and effective, and who reaches across the aisle to get things done. They will vote for her in large numbers, just as they did for her husband. As for pro-choice working women who are Republicans, they will defect to Hillary in droves.
As for the second point, that liberals think she is too conservative, true, but only on a very small scale. Many on the netroots activist crowd on DKos and elsewhere (largely white and male) find Hillary too centrist for their taste. But this group is a tiny sector of the electorate. African Americans, who are consistently the most liberal sector of the American voting populace, strongly back Hillary, and she has immense support among liberal women. The bottom line is that Hillary will get virtually all the liberal vote.
As for the third point, that right-wingers hate Hillary, well, of course they do! They hate her because she and her husband led the most successful Democratic administration in decades. They hate her because she supports universal health care. And they hate her because she is a strong and powerful woman. They will throw everything at her they can. But, guess what? The far right will throw everything they can at any Democratic nominee. (Has anybody forgotten swift-boating?) And, of all the Democratic candidates, don't doubt for even a second that Hillary will be the toughtest, most competent, and most effective in fighting back against that hate. As somebody else said in a comment, I want a candidate that will draw blood when attacked, and that's Hillary and her team.
The final point is that Hillary doesn't connect well with people personally. That might seem the case at first glance. But she has proven to be an extremely effective campaigner. In New York, she won very large majorities twice in a row. Hillary has a compelling personal story, with decades of work on behalf of children and families. She's a great campaigner. She impresses people, even skeptics, when they see her message, and she'll have the funding and organization to get her message out. People are ready for a candidate who is serious, effective, competent, thoughtful, and professional (all qualities that contrast radically with our current loser POTUS). I have no doubt that Hillary will turn around a lot of people in a national campaign, just as she has done in New York.
The bottom line--Hillary will win the nomination and will win big in both the popular and electoral vote. Don't forget her husband won 370 or more electoral votes two times in a row--and that was BEFORE eight disastrous years of "w". I predict that Hillary will also win more than 300 electoral votes and sweep to victory.
Of course electability is only one criterion for judging a candidate. I will discuss other aspects of Hillary's candidacy, including the issue of triangulation and her stance on Iraq, in follow-up diaries.