Yes, it's very early, but hey, we live in the age of perpetual campaigning, so let's jump on it.
I am ranking my list of House 2008 Defense (the top 25 at least): vulnerable freshmen, or vulnerable long-time incumbents. Since we only know for sure so far of one open seat (CO-02), I am not including open seats.
Read below the fold!
- Texas 22
Incumbent: Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Science and Technology, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 65% Republican
Description: Houston suburbs
This is a conservative district (DeLay, ahem), and Lampson has got to top the NRCC target list in 2008. He's on all the right committees, has the moderate-conservative voting record, has the personality, has everything you need to win as a Democrat here...but is it still enough to win a 2nd term, especially with the Republican presidential nominee likely to top 60-65% here?
Possible Republican candidates include 2006's Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (DOA from what I can tell), State Rep. Bob Talton, Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace, and some other guy I am too lazy to look up.
- Pennsylvania 10
Incumbent: Chris Carney, D-Dimock, elected in 2006
Committees: Homeland Security, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 58% Republican
Description: Northeast Pennsylvania
I wanted to put someone like Zack Space in the #2 slot, but the fact stands that Space got 62% in November in an open seat race, and Carney got just 53% against an incumbent who had a mistress and CHOKED HER. And this was in a very good year for Pennsylvania Democrats. It looks like of the four new Dems in Pennsylvania, Carney will be by far the toughest hold.
- Kansas 2
Incumbent: Nancy Boyda, D-Topeka, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services
District PVI: 57% Republican
Description: Topeka, rural Eastern Kansas
This is a tough district. And worse, Jim Ryun is running to take his old seat back in 2008. But the fact is, Boyda has run a perfect ship so far. She got on the two ideal committees for this district, which has a lot of farmers and a lot of military servicemembers. She also got good publicity for passing, 431-0, her first bill, making it so that Congressmembers convicted of a crime cannot receive retirement benefits. If anyone can hold this seat, it's Boyda, but it will still be tough with a rematch from Ryun.
- Florida 16
Incumbent: Tim Mahoney, D-Venus, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Financial Services
District PVI: 52% Republican
Description: Stretches from Gulf Coast to Atlantic, with Lake Okeechobee in the center
This district is not THAT Republican, but the fact is that there is a deep GOP bench in this area: state legislators, local officials, etc. And Mahoney was barely able to beat "Mark Foley" on the ballot. While voters were informed that "Foley" meant Negron, the results show that there is a good 47% of this district that is hard-core GOP. Mahoney has worked hard so far to be a conservative Dem, and his history as a businessman certainly makes him unusual, but he will get a stiff challenge nonetheless, and it will be a major test for the Florida Democrats.
Potential candidates include '06er Joe Negron, State Reps. Gayle Harrell and Carl Domino, and State Sen. Jeff Atwater.
- California 11
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton, elected in 2006
Committees: Science and Technology, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 53% Republican
Description: Meanders through the East Bay and the northern San Joaquin Valley
McNerney's win was a surprise to everyone but the dedicated volunteers of his campaign. California is gerrymandered so that no district is truly 50/50, and this district is pretty gerrymandered for the GOP, even if only by a 53-47 or 54-46 margin. McNerney had a "grassroots liberal" image during the campaign, but now that he is a Congressman representing a mixed suburban and rural district, he needs to be seen a little differently.
If Richard Pombo vies for a rematch, McNerney is the slight favorite again. But rumors favor State Assemblyman Guy Houston, who is term-limited in 2008 and lacks Pombo's baggage.
- Iowa 3
Incumbent: Leonard Boswell, D-Des Moines, elected in 1996
Committees: Agriculture, Intelligence, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 51% Democratic
Description: Des Moines area
While Boswell was able to survive a well-funded and aggressive challenge in 2006, he won 52-46, his most unimpressive showing since first being elected in 1996. And this was a very Democratic year. Are voters considering a Republican here, or was the "push for change" strong even against an incumbent Dem? Boswell will be 74 in 2008, so it is not even sure that he will run again. This is one to keep an eye on, if for no other reason than the extremely 50/50 politics here.
- Wisconsin 8
Incumbent: Steve Kagen, D-Appleton, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 54% Republican
Description: Green Bay / Appleton area
This district is a rather odd mix of small cities and rural areas, so Kagen's committee assignments look good. But it is still GOP-leaning, and many of the local Wisconsin Republicans blame their 2006 nominee for the loss, saying he was a bad candidate. One hot rumor is that former Rep. Mark Green, who vacated in 2006 to run (unsuccessfully) for Governor, will seek to retake his seat. If so, this immediately goes to the #1 spot, as Green is very popular at home and might well be the favorite against Kagen.
- New Hampshire 1
Incumbent: Carol Shea-Porter, D-Rochester, elected in 2006
Committees: Armed Services, Education and Labor
District PVI: 50% Republican
Description: Eastern New Hampshire, Manchester area
Shea-Porter is an unabashed anti-war progressive in the more conservative of New Hampshire's two districts (both fairly competitive between the parties). More importantly, she faces a rematch from Jeb Bradley, the Rep. she ousted in '06. Bradley will most certainly be more aggressive this time. Shea-Porter has two things going for her: that this time she is an incumbent, and will get DCCC backing, and that New Hampshire is trending hard Dem.
- Ohio 18
Incumbent: Zack Space, D-Dover, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 56% Republican
Description: Rural Eastern Ohio
Yes, I know Space won with 62% in 2006. But this was Bob Ney's district for God's sake! And Space's opponent, Joy Padgett, was just about the most flawed GOP nominee possible. And it was a horrible, horrible year for Ohio Republicans. Here's the thing about Space: through the entire campaign against Padgett, from August through November, analysts expected him to win by default, due to the disastrous state of Padgett's campaign. But no one ever called him necessarily a strong candidate. That could come back to bite us in '08.
Nevertheless, he is an incumbent now, and he won his first term in a landslide, in a tough district. Furthermore, the Democrats are hoping to win Ohio in '08, and they have reason to be confident. He may just be a keeper.
- North Carolina 11
Incumbent: Heath Shuler, D-Waynesville, elected in 2006
Committees: Natural Resources, Small Business, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 57% Republican
Description: Asheville, Appalachian areas
Just from the district description you can probably guess the politics here. NASCAR and barbecue dads dominate here, and lucky for Shuler, he can speak their language. From this slot (#10) on down I am getting increasingly confident. Shuler is young, likeable, good looking, a conservative Dem, and he absolutely embodies this district. Further, he unseated a 16-year incumbent by a decisive margin. But this is still conservative turf, not likely to be won by the Democratic presidential candidate, so Shuler has to stay alert.
- Georgia 08
Incumbent: Jim Marshall, D-Macon, elected in 2002
Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services, Financial Services
District PVI: 58% Republican
Description: Stretches from the southern Atlanta exurbs down to deep in South Georgia
Due to GOP gerrymandering, this is an absolutely crazy district, including rich suburbs and exurbs, poor rural areas, military communities, and Macon, the biggest city in the district. Marshall is a good fit, but his 51-49 reelection in '06 was a little disquieting after polls had shown him up big. Marshall still retains a good advantage, though: his '08 challenge is not likely to be as aggressive, since there are so many freshmen the NRCC will target, and he seems to have a pattern of barely squeaking into office, then entrenching himself. (He won by a 51-49 margin in 2002 in a much friendlier district, but won a landslide reelection in 2004 before the lines were redrawn)
- Georgia 12
Incumbent: John Barrow, D-Savannah, elected in 2004
Committees: Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, Small Business
District PVI: 52% Democratic
Description: Stretches from Augusta to Savannah and takes in rural areas
Another redistricting target, Barrow was only able to squeak out a second term in '06. However, that was more expected for him than for Marshall. Like Marshall, Barrow can familiarize himself more with his new turf now, since it doesn't include his old Athens base and instead is full of rural counties with large black populations. This district is very competitive, but slightly Dem-leaning. A strong presidential candidate can win here, and that would certainly help Barrow.
- Indiana 08
Incumbent: Brad Ellsworth, D-Evansville, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services, Small Business
District PVI: 59% Republican
Description: Western and Southwest Indiana
Ellsworth was the perfect candidate in '06, as indicated by his 61-39 whomping of longtime target but perennial survivor John Hostettler. He is by all accounts performing ably. And he will probably have a good warchest in '08. But this is still a conservative seat, getting more so every cycle, and the GOP will probably find someone a lot better at campaigning than John "Mayberry headquarters" Hostettler.
- Indiana 02
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly, D-Granger, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Financial Services, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 54% Republican
Description: Northwest Indiana, Michiana region
Donnelly was able to decisively bring down Count Chocola in '06, and that is to his credit. Apparently the movement for change was even bigger in usually red Indiana than in the nation at large. Let's not forget though that this district was designed to stay Dem in 2002 and still went to Chocola. It can be unpredictable, and is hardly the solid-blue turf District 1 is next door. Keep an eye on it.
- Indiana 09
Incumbent: Baron Hill, D-Seymour, elected in 2006
Committees: Energy and Commerce, Science and Technology
District PVI: 57% Republican
Description: Southeast Indiana
We have reached the last of the Indiana triplets. After three fights against Mike Sodrel, the first two times as an incumbent and the last time as a challenger, Hill has been tested as far as close races come. But Sodrel will probably run a fourth time (why wouldn't he? He won in the last presidential), setting up yet another nailbiter yet. Personally I can't see Sodrel winning in Indiana's current environment, but just the possibility makes this one to watch.
- Arizona 05
Incumbent: Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe, elected in 2006
Committees: Science and Technology, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 54% Republican
Description: Tempe, Scottsdale, other Phoenix suburbs
On paper, Mitchell should be a lot further up on the list than this. This district is not lopsidedly GOP, but it is more loyal historically than, say, the Indiana seats. And J.D. Hayworth is (according to rumor) hot to get his seat back. But there is an intangible at work here: Mitchell was not just popular, but LOVED, as Mayor of Tempe from 1976-1994, and is considered an institution in the area. He is seen as an old-school nice guy, in contrast with Hayworth's hothead reputation. I expect Mitchell to entrench himself, to a certain extent.
- New York 19
Incumbent: John Hall, D-Dover Plains, elected in 2006
Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 51% Republican
Description: South Hudson Valley
Hall's win was a shock to most of us. It's not that this is a prohibitively Republican district, or that Sue Kelly was a hero. It's just that, well, Hall was a musician with no elected experience, and he won a crowded and expensive primary. Boy, did we underestimate him. Needless to say, he is so far doing great. The only possible problem for him is that this is not one of New York's more liberal districts, and he will probably face a good challenge. But something tells me he is prepared for that...
- New York 20
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Greenport, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Armed Services
District PVI: 53% Republican
Description: North Hudson Valley
Gillibrand is a star. You've probably heard it a million times. Even though this is the most GOP-friendly district held by a New York Democrat, nobody is calling her a top-tier target yet. The New York GOP is in such a sorry state that she may be in for good now. But I'm not at all ready to make that leap.
- New Hampshire 02
Incumbent: Paul Hodes, D-Concord, elected in 2006
Committees: Financial Services, Oversight and Government Reform
District PVI: 53% Democratic
Description: Western New Hampshire, Concord area
Hodes would be much further down the list if Charlie Bass were not considering a rematch. Like Jeb Bradley, it looks like he wants back in, and the NRCC will no doubt go all out for him. Hodes of course has the district's Dem lean going for him, as well as the fact that he was able to unseat Bass in '06 without that much DCCC support.
- Minnesota 01
Incumbent: Tim Walz, D-Mankato, elected in 2006
Committees: Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs
District PVI: 51% Republican
Description: Southern Minnesota
Random trivia: the last Democrat to represent this district was named Tim as well. What was his last name?
Anyway, Walz is working hard to get entrenched here. By all accounts his constituent outreach is the real deal, and I've seen him speak on C-SPAN more than a couple times already. (Shut up, C-SPAN is cool!) His defeat of Gutknecht was fairly surprising, and the GOP isn't talking him up as dead meat yet. (Which is how they are talking about Lampson, Mahoney, Space, and Carney) All in all, he seems in decent shape so far.
- Pennsylvania 04
Incumbent: Jason Altmire, D-McCandless, elected in 2006
Committees: Education and Labor, Small Business, Transportation and Infrastructure
District PVI: 53% Republican
Description: Pittsburgh suburbs, Western Pennsylvania
This is a socially conservative district, but it also has a strong Democratic heritage, which is not apparent from looking at the PVI. Altmire's upset of Hart was probably due to her first credible challenge ever. Altmire fits the seat well: a socially conservative Dem with credibility among labor and blue-collar workers. This is on the list, but not by a lot.
- Florida 22
Incumbent: Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton, elected in 2006
Committees: Financial Services, Foreign Affairs
District PVI: 54% Democratic
Description: South Florida coastline
This district consists mostly of beaches, palm trees, and retirement homes. Clay Shaw only survived as long as he did because of personality and history. Klein is in fact a better representation of this slightly Dem-leaning, heavily Jewish district. So far there is no reason for him to be vulnerable other than the deep GOP bench in Florida. Jeff Atwater, mentioned as a potential Mahoney challenger, could also run here.
- Iowa 02
Incumbent: Dave Loebsack, D-Mount Vernon, elected in 2006
Committees: Armed Services, Education and Labor
District PVI: 57% Democratic
Description: Southeast Iowa, Iowa City area
Honestly I don't think Loebsack will be heavily targeted in '08 barring a major gaffe. This is Iowa's strongest district for Democrats, and Loebsack pulled off a major shocker, possibly the biggest in the nation, in unseating beloved moderate Republican Jim Leach. Iowa will be competitive in the presidential race, so there will be a lot of resources being spread around this area, and that is essentially the only reason to keep this seat on the list.
- Pennsylvania 08
Incumbent: Patrick Murphy, D-Bristol, elected in 2006
Committees: Armed Services, Intelligence, Oversight and Government Reform
District PVI: 53% Democratic
Description: Bucks County, Philadelphia suburbs
Pelosi is treating Patrick Murphy as a star so far, giving him three great committee assignments, one (Intelligence) considered extremely plum. The GOP will need someone as strong as a Mike Fitzpatrick or Jim Greenwood against Murphy to win here, and even then it will be close.
- Kentucky 03
Incumbent: John Yarmuth, D-Louisville, elected in 2006
Committees: Education and Labor, Oversight and Government Reform
District PVI: 53% Democratic
Description: Louisville
It's a wonder that Anne Northup lasted as long as she did, but one thing is certain: if she loses for Governor this year, she will officially be damaged goods, old news, and not a strong pick against Yarmuth. (You see, once you lose two races in a row, especially if one was as an incumbent, you are usually considered past it) So if Northup doesn't run here, Yarmuth should be in good shape, as this was the only Kentucky district won by Kerry and the Kentucky GOP is in bad shape.
FINITO
You may notice that I only had three non-freshman incumbents in the top 25. That is because our incumbents did incredibly well in 2006. John Salazar, Dennis Moore, Jim Matheson, Charlie Melancon, Chet Edwards, and Stephanie Herseth all won easily, and are likely to be off the vulnerable list from now on.
Of our freshmen, I think the remainder are decently safe (or at least okay) from now on barring big surprises. These would include:
- Gabrielle Giffords, Arizona 8 (not likely to be targeted)
- Ed Perlmutter, Colorado 7 (Dem-leaning district, Dem-trending state)
- Ciro Rodriguez, Texas 23 (Bonilla is out of the picture and GOPers in the area have no one else)
- Bruce Braley, Iowa 1 (Dem district)
- Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania 7 (Dem-leaning district, strong performance in '06)
- Mike Arcuri, New York 24 (plum committee assignment, strong performance in '06)
- Peter Welch, Vermont (it's Vermont)
- Joe Courtney, Connecticut 2 (strongly Dem district; I say he's totally safe unless Rob Simmons runs)
- Chris Murphy, Connecticut 5 (shocked us with whomping victory in '06)
That is all. I know, it was long. Thoughts?